Gormley, Erickson, and Yuan and Erickson, Gormley, A Low-Visibility Force Multiplier ASSESSING CHINA’s CRUISE MISSILE AMBITIONS Dennis M. Gormley, Andrew S. Erickson, and Jingdong Yuan and Jingdong Yuan Jingdong and S. Erickson, Andrew Dennis M. Gormley, Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs The Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs (China Center) was established as an integral part of the National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies on March 1, 2000, pursuant to Section 914 of the 2000 National Defense Authorization Act. The China Center’s mission is to serve as a national focal point and resource center for multidisciplinary research and analytic exchanges on the national goals and strategic posture of the People’s Republic of China and to focus on China’s ability to develop, field, and deploy an effective military instrument in support of its national strategic objectives. Cover photo: Missile launch from Chinese submarine during China-Russia joint military exercise in eastern China’s Shandong Peninsula. Photo © CHINA NEWSPHOTO/Reuters/Corbis A Low-Visibility Force Multiplier A Low-Visibility Force Multiplier ASSESSING CHINA’s CRUISE MISSILE AMBITIONS Dennis M. Gormley, Andrew S. Erickson, and Jingdong Yuan Published by National Defense University Press for the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs Institute for National Strategic Studies Washington, D.C. 2014 The ideas expressed in this study are those of the authors alone. They do not represent the policies or estimates of the U.S. Navy or any other organization of the U.S. Government. All the resources referenced are unclassified, predominantly from non-U.S. sources, and readily available in the public domain. First printing, April 2014 NDU Press publications are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office. For ordering information, call (202) 512-1800 or write to the: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. For the U.S. Government Online Bookstore, go to: http://bookstore.gpo.gov. For current publications of the Institute for National Strategic Studies, consult the NDU Press Web site at: ndupress.ndu.edu. Contents List of Illustrations . vii Foreword . ix Acknowledgments . xi List of Abbreviations. xiii Executive Summary . xvii Introduction and Overview: China’s Cruise Missiles as a Stealthy “Assassin’s Mace” . 1 1. Institutional and Organizational Actors in China’s Cruise Missile Programs . 9 2. Characteristics and Capabilities of China’s Antiship Cruise Missiles. 15 3. Origin, Characteristics, and Capabilities of China’s Land-attack Cruise Missiles . 25 4. Cruise Missile Platforms . 43 5. Cruise Missile Employment Doctrine and Training . 61 6. Emerging Roles and Capabilities of Cruise Missiles to Contribute to a Taiwan Campaign . 79 7. Assessment of China’s Potential to Proliferate Cruise Missiles and Related Technology . 83 8. Conclusion . 89 Appendix A. History of Chinese Cruise Missile Institutes/Defense Management System . 99 Appendix B. Overview of China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation Third Academy . 103 Appendix C. Performance Parameters of Major Chinese Cruise Missiles . 113 Appendix D. Excerpts Pertaining to Cruise Missile Employment and Defense from Chinese Doctrinal Textbook . 117 Notes . 127 About the Authors . 163 v Illustrations FIGURES 1. Elements of a Cruise Missile. 3 2.1. Genealogy of Cruise Missiles. 21 3.1. China’s Conventional Antiaccess/Area-denial (A2/AD) or “Counter-intervention” Capabilities . 31 TABLES 1.1. Key ASCM-/LACM-production and Export/Import Organizations . 14 2.1. PLA Antiship Cruise Missiles (Major Systems). 18 3.1. PLA Land-attack Cruise Missiles . 25 4.1. PLAN Surface Cruise Missile Platforms . 47 4.2. PLAN Submarines. 49 4.3. PLAAF Fixed-wing Aircraft with Cruise Missile Capability . 54 4.4. PLAN Fixed-wing Aircraft with Cruise Missile Capability . 56 4.5. PLAN Coastal Defense ASCMs . 60 B.1. China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC, formerly China Aerospace Machine and Electronic Corporation) Suborgans . 107 B.2. CASIC Facilities . 109 B.3. Other Chinese Cruise Missile–relevant Organizations . 110 vii Foreword Reflecting lessons learned from the U.S. deployment of two aircraft carriers during the March 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, China’s military modernization includes ambitious efforts to develop weapons that might deter or delay intervention by outside powers. China views these weapons as part of a broader counterintervention strategy. Western analysts refer to them as antiaccess/area-denial capabilities and have written extensively about their implications for U.S. military freedom of action in the Western Pacific and for the U.S. ability to intervene in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan. Most of this analysis has examined Chinese attack submarines and ballistic missiles; some has focused on Chinese efforts to develop an antiship ballistic missile that might tar- get U.S. aircraft carriers. One area of relative analytical neglect involves China’s extensive efforts to develop and deploy large numbers of highly accurate antiship cruise missiles (ASCMs) and land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) on a range of ground, naval, and air platforms. Although a few articles have examined Chinese cruise missile capabilities and development programs, there has been no comprehensive study on the subject. The Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs (CSCMA) in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University commissioned this book to fill this gap in the open-source literature on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The book helps fulfill the CSCMA’s congressionally-mandated mission “to study and inform policymakers in the Department of Defense, Congress, and throughout the Government regarding the national goals and strategic posture of the People’s Republic of China and the ability of that nation to develop, field, and deploy an effective military instrument in support of its national strategic goals.” The authors combine extensive individual expertise in cruise missiles, arms control, and nonproliferation, Asian security, the Chinese military, and the Chinese defense indus- try. Dennis Gormley, a Senior Lecturer at the University of Pittsburgh’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, is an internationally recognized expert on cruise missiles. Jingdong Yuan, an Associate Professor in the Centre for International Security Studies at Sydney University, is an expert on arms control and nonproliferation who has written widely on Asian security issues. Andrew Erickson, an Associate Professor in the Strategic Research Department at the U.S. Naval War College and a founding member of the department’s China Maritime Studies Institute, is widely recognized as one of the best young analysts studying the PLA and Chinese defense industry. Their combined efforts have produced this comprehensive study, which addresses the historical origins of the Chinese cruise missile program, considers progress made in developing and deploying ASCMs and LACMs, and reviews Chinese doctrinal writings to consider how these weapons might be employed in a conflict. The authors make ix Foreword extensive use of Chinese military and technical writings to assess current Chinese capa- bilities and identify potential future directions for Chinese cruise missile development and employment. I was fortunate to have had the privilege of working closely with all three authors to bring this book to fruition. My work as editor has involved formulating the terms of reference for the original study, providing substantive guidance in restructuring the manuscript, undertaking several complete revisions to incorporate additional Chinese sources and smooth the prose, and overseeing the painstaking final stage of verifying references and shepherding the book through the clearance and publication process. The result stands as the definitive work on the subject of Chinese cruise missiles. Dr. Phillip C. Saunders Director, Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University x Acknowledgments The authors thank Dr. Phillip C. Saunders for conceiving this project and providing extensive guidance, support, and editing throughout the process; they also thank Mark Stokes and Christopher P. Carlson for helpful technical suggestions; Amy Grubb and Henry Young for research assistance; and Gabriel Collins, Craig Koerner, William Murray, Christopher Weuve, and an anonymous reviewer for their detailed and incisive comments on an earlier version of the manuscript. Lynn Beene performed initial copyediting, and Dr. Andrew Marble worked to clean up the English and Chinese language references and filled in missing Chinese translations. Terry Min Jie Zeng completed a few missing Chinese language references. NDU China Center research interns Patrick McNulty and Joseph Kettel helped locate photographs. Dr. Andrew Marble, Lt. Col. Stephen Purdy, USAF, and Patrick McNulty assisted in proofreading the manuscript. At NDU Press, Dr. John J. Church and Calvin Kelley copyedited the final manuscript, and Dr. Jeffrey D. Smotherman oversaw production. At the U.S. Government Printing Office, Amy Ellis designed the cover and layout for the book. xi Abbreviations A2/AD antiaccess/area-denial AAM air-to-air missile AAW antiair warfare AESA active electronically scanned array AIP air-independent propulsion ARM antiradiation missile ASAT antisatellite ASBM antiship ballistic