Promotor Prof. Dr. Peter A. Finke (UGent) Leden van de examencommissie Prof. Dr. em. Marc Antrop (UGent) Prof. Dr. Philippe Crombé (UGent) Prof. Dr. Luc Lebbe (UGent) Prof. Dr. Jan Sevink (UvA) Prof. Dr. Marc Van Meirvenne (UGent) Prof. Dr. Eric Van Ranst (UGent) Prof. Dr. Jacques Verniers (UGent) Faculteit Wetenschappen Ann Zwertvaegher The use of integrated process models in a geoarchaeological context: a proof of concept Proefschrift voorgedragen tot het behalen van de graad van Doctor in de Wetenschappen: Geologie 2012 v Acknowledgments Ghent, December 2012 Being at the end of this doctoral experience, it is time to overlook these past years and to be thankful for the fascinating things I have learned, for the stimulating experiences I have had, but most of all for the interesting people I have met. I would like to start by thanking my promoter Prof. Dr. Peter Finke, who gave me the opportunity to work in the field of geoarchaeology. Not only did he introduce me to the world of modelling, programming and soil formation, moreover, he was always available to discuss my work and to give good advice. I hope that our collaboration has made me adopt some of the Dutch directness. I was lucky that my research was part of a larger, interdisciplinary project that was financially supported by the Special Research Fund (BOF) of Ghent University. Being part of this project gave me the opportunity to work in a team of various scientific disciplines. I thankfully mention Prof. Dr. Philippe Crombé (the project director) for helping to collect and explain archaeological literature and data. I am also grateful to Prof. Dr. Jacques Verniers, Prof. Dr. Marc Van Meirvenne, Prof. Dr. Philippe De Maeyer, Prof. Dr. Jean Bourgeois and Prof. Dr. em. Marc Antrop. All gave invaluable support and advice in the field, at various meetings and with several papers. The other doctoral students and researchers in this team deserve my gratitude for the instructive discussions and amicable collaboration: Machteld Bats, Mona Court-Picon, Jeroen De Reu, Philippe De Smedt, Vanessa Gelorini and Ilke Werbrouck. I would like to express my gratitude to the members of my examination committee: Prof. Dr. em. Marc Antrop, Prof. Dr. Philippe Crombé, Prof. Dr. Luc Lebbe, Prof. Dr. Marc Van Meirvenne, Prof. Dr. Jan Sevink and Prof. Dr. Eric Van Ranst. They have thoroughly screened this manuscript and their suggestions have highly improved the quality of this work. I would also like to thank all other reviewers who, anonymously or not, have lent their time and knowledge to ameliorate this research. vii The aid of all other researchers is also very much appreciated. Special thanks go to Prof. Dr. Luc Lebbe for his help with groundwater modelling and MODFLOW in particular; to Dr. Alexander Vandenbohede, who introduced me to the magic of Matlab and assisted me with programming and Fortran-obstacles; to Dr. Udaya Vitharana, with whom I set out on the road of Bayesian calibration. Machteld, Jeroen and Ilke: I have really enjoyed the times on the field with all of you! My gratitude goes out to Dr. Joris Sergant, Prof. Dr. Wim De Clercq and Dr. B. Davies for the use of their data; to Dr. Frank Mostaert and the people of WatLab; to all the archaeologists who were of assistance in the field and to all colleagues and students who have contributed to this work in one way or another. It was a pleasure working with my colleagues at the S8 (both Geology and Geography Departments). Special thanks go to the team of the Laboratory of Soil Science. I would also like to mention Azam and Yan-Yan, whose company in the same office was very mu ch appreciated. A warm thank you goes out to Amaury, Dries, Hans, Jan, Lieven, and Rindert, for relaxing coffee breaks and entertainment. Finally, I would like to thank my family and friends for their support and very welcome distractions. My gratitude goes to my parents, Marc en Chris Zwertvaegher-Goethals, and to my sisters and their family (Ingrid, Karen, Lieven, Amber and the little boy or girl whom I am very curious to meet). Amaury deserves my special thanks for his company during lunch, for the electrical heating after office hours, for his help with the book cover, and much more. To Maaike and Christophe, the Manama, the Girls, the Geologen, Ginga Mundo, and all other friends: thank you all for the support, the fun we had and the good times we shared. I am looking forward to many more! viii Table of Contents Acknowledgments............................................................................................vii Table of Contents......................................................................................................................... ix Chapter 1 General introduction ................................................................... 131 1.1 Broader framework and problem statement.......................................................... 131 1.2 Land evaluation and landscape reconstruction ....................................................... 3 1.3 Objectives..................................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Thesis outline .............................................................................................................. 6 1.5 References ................................................................................................................... 8 Chapter 2 The study area ............................................................................ 11 2.1 General setting .......................................................................................................... 11 2.1.1 Geographical setting ..................................................................................... 11 2.1.2 Temporal setting ........................................................................................... 13 2.2 Geological, hydrogeological and geomorphological context................................ 13 2.2.1 Geology and hydrogeology........................................................................... 13 2.2.2 Quaternary geomorphological evolution.................................................... 14 2.3 Pedological context .................................................................................................. 18 2.4 Climatological and vegetational context ................................................................ 21 2.5 Archaeological context............................................................................................. 23 2.6 References ................................................................................................................. 30 Chapter 3 Conceptual model framework........................................................ 37 Abstract ............................................................................................................................... 39 3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 40 3.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................. 42 3.2.1 Predictive modelling ..................................................................................... 42 3.2.2 Model framework for an integrative model-based landscape reconstruction ............................................................................................... 44 3.2.2.1 Rationale ........................................................................................................ 44 3.2.2.2 Approach........................................................................................................ 44 3.2.3 Components of the model framework......................................................... 46 3.2.3.1 Elevation model............................................................................................. 46 3.2.3.2 Hydrological model ....................................................................................... 50 3.2.3.3 Pedogenetic model ........................................................................................ 52 3.2.3.4 Land evaluation model ................................................................................. 54 3.2.4 Concepts of scale ........................................................................................... 55 3.3 Results ........................................................................................................................ 56 ix 3.3.1 Predictive modelling .....................................................................................56 3.3.2 Components of the model framework .........................................................58 3.3.2.1 Elevation model .............................................................................................58 3.3.2.2 Hydrological model .......................................................................................58 3.3.2.3 Pedogenetic model ........................................................................................59 3.3.2.4 Land evaluation model..................................................................................62 3.3.3 Model framework and compontent integration.........................................63 3.4 Discussion ..................................................................................................................66 3.4.1 Predictive modelling .....................................................................................66 3.4.2