ECONOMIC COST OF CONFLICT IN MOZAMBIQUE ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF RENEWED CONFLICT ON THE TOURISM SECTOR APRIL 2014 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Ema Batey. ECONOMIC COST CONFLICT IN MOZAMBIQUE ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CONFLICT ON THE TOURISM SECTOR Program Title: Mozambique Support Program for Economic and Enterprise Development (SPEED). Sponsoring USAID Office: USAID/Mozambique Contract Number: Contractor: Ema Batey Date of Publication: April 2014 Author: Ema Batey The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. CONTENTS CONTENTS ........................................................................................ I TABLES AND FIGURES ................................................................. IV FOREWORD ..................................................................................... V PREFACE ....................................................................................... VII Understanding the Data ................................................................................................ vii Considerations .............................................................................................................. vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................. IX ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................ XI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................ XIII INTRODUCTION ................................................................................ 1 OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................. 1 THE TOURISM ECONOMY AND ITS IMPACTS ON THE HOST COMMUNITY, THE NATIONAL ECONOMY AND DEVELOPMENT GOALS ............................................................................................................ 1 COMMUNITY LEVEL INCOME POTENTIAL ................................................................................... 2 ADDITIONAL BENEFITS OF TOURISM ........................................................................................ 2 Biodiversity Conservation ................................................................................................ 2 Pro-Poor Income ............................................................................................................ 3 Foreign Income Generation ............................................................................................. 4 Preservation of Cultural Assets & Patrimony ................................................................... 4 TOURISM POLICY AND LEGISLATION ......................................................................................... 4 TOURISM MASTER PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT ....................................................................... 5 PROFILE OF THE MOZAMBICAN TOURISM DEMAND & OFFER ..................................................... 5 NATIONAL TOURISM SECTOR PERFORMANCE & TRENDS PRE - CONFLICT ......................................................................................... 6 NATIONAL LEVEL TOURISM INDICATORS .............................................................................. 6 Numbers of visitors ......................................................................................................... 6 ECONOMIC COST CONFLICT IN MOZAMBIQUE: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CONFLICT ON THE TOURISM SECTOR Source Markets and Trends ............................................................................................ 7 Market segments ............................................................................................................. 9 VALUE OF TOURISM TO THE NATIONAL ECONOMY ................. 11 NATIONAL PERFORMANCE INDICATORS ................................................................................. 11 International Tourism Receipts ...................................................................................... 11 Establishing Length of Stay & Average Spend .............................................................. 11 Contribution to GDP ...................................................................................................... 14 Tourism investment ....................................................................................................... 15 Capital Investment in Tourism in Mozambique .............................................................. 15 Realized Tourism Development and Employment Creation ........................................... 18 Overview of the impacts of tourism economy ................................................................ 19 VILANKULO CASE STUDY............................................................. 21 CONTEXT ............................................................................................................................. 21 Overview of the Destination ........................................................................................... 21 Tourism Development pre 2011 .................................................................................... 21 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ................................................................................................... 22 Assessing the sector ..................................................................................................... 22 Background Tourism Data for the Location (2005 and 2010) ......................................... 23 Tourism Contribution to the Local Economy .................................................................. 23 Tourism Employment in the Vilankulo District ................................................................ 24 Capital Investment in the District ................................................................................... 24 CURRENT STATE OF TOURISM ............................................................................................... 25 FACTORS AFFECTING TOURISM PERFORMANCE ..................................................................... 25 SWOT ANALYSIS OF INTERNAL & EXTERNAL FACTORS INFLUENCING THE TOURISM PERFORMANCE IN THE CASE STUDY AREA .................................................................................................... 27 Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 30 Additional Findings Summary ........................................................................................ 31 ASSESSING THE COST OF THE CONFLICT ON THE NATIONAL TOURISM SECTOR ......................................................................... 33 INCIDENTS OF CONFLICT ....................................................................................................... 33 REPORTING ON THE CONFLICT .............................................................................................. 33 CONCLUSIONS: THE EXTENT OF IMPACT OF CONFLICT REPORTING ON TRAVEL REALIZED ....... 34 ECONOMIC COST CONFLICT IN MOZAMBIQUE: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CONFLICT ON THE TOURISM SECTOR CONCLUSIONS: THE REAL COST OF THE DECLINING INDUSTRY AND THE FACTORS RESPONSIBLE35 COSTS DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE CONFLICT ..................................... 37 Tourism Value Chain ..................................................................................................... 37 Tourism Value Chain ..................................................................................................... 37 Tourism Performance .................................................................................................... 38 Tourism Investment ....................................................................................................... 40 POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CONTINUED CONFLICT ...................................................................... 42 Tourism Performance & Investment .............................................................................. 42 APPENDIX ....................................................................................... 42 1. CALENDAR OF EVENTS ....................................................................... 42 2. LIST OF WEBSITES REVIEWED ............................................................ 42 3. LIST OF ARTICLES REVIEWED ............................................................. 42 4. LIST OF STAKEHOLDERS CONSULTED ................................................. 42 REFERENCES ................................................................................. 43 ANNEX 1 – CALENDAR OF EVENTS ............................................. 49 ANNEX 2 – LISTING OF WEBSITES REVIEWED ........................... 52 ANNEX 3 – LIST OF ARTICLES REVIEWED .................................. 64 ANNEX 4 - LIST OF STAKEHOLDERS CONSULTED IN THE FIELD RESEARCH PROCESS ................................................................... 65 ECONOMIC COST CONFLICT IN MOZAMBIQUE: ASSESSING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CONFLICT ON THE TOURISM SECTOR TABLES AND FIGURES TABLE Figure 1: International arrivals and overnight visitors in Mozambique .......................................................... 6 Table 2: International Arrivals by Country of Origin ...................................................................................... 7 Figure