Party competition over time: How voters and intra-party structure constrain party policy shifts Thomas Meyer Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences (GESS) Center for Doctoral Studies in Social and Behavioral Sciences (CDSS) University of Mannheim Dissertation thesis written at the Center for Doctoral Studies in the Social and Behavioral Sciences of the Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences and submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.) of the Faculty of Social Sciences at the University of Mannheim. CDSS Academic Director: Professor Dr. Thomas Bräuninger School of Social Sciences Department of Political Science University of Mannheim A5, 6 68131 Mannheim Germany Supervisor: Professor Dr. Wolfgang C. Müller Department of Government University of Vienna Hohenstaufengasse 9 1010 Vienna Austria Co-Supervisor: Professor Dr. Michael J. Laver Department of Politics New York University 19 West 4th Street New York, NY 10012-1119 USA Defense: June 16, 2010 Contents TABLES AND FIGURES...................................................................................................................... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................................................................. iii 1 PARTY COMPETITION OVER TIME: CONSTRAINTS ON SHIFTING PARTY POLICY PLATFORMS ............................................................................................................... 1 1.1 THE CHOICE OF PARTY POLICY POSITIONS AND PARTY POLICY SHIFTS................................... 1 1.1.1 The dominant role of the status quo .............................................................................. 3 1.1.2 How the status quo affects party policy shifts ............................................................... 4 1.1.3 Time and its consequences: How voters and intra-party structure constrain party policy shifts.................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 VOTERS AND THEIR PERCEPTIONS OF PARTY POLICY SHIFTS.................................................. 6 1.3 INTRA-PARTY STRUCTURE ...................................................................................................... 9 1.4 THE ROAD AHEAD: STRUCTURE OF THE DISSERTATION........................................................ 11 2 LINKING PARTIES AND TIME: PREVIOUS RESEARCH ON THE EFFECT OF RIVAL PARTIES, VOTERS, AND PARTY ORGANIZATIONS ........................................ 13 2.1 PARTIES AND THEIR ENVIRONMENT...................................................................................... 14 2.2 PARTIES AND PARTY COMPETITION....................................................................................... 16 2.2.1 Parties and static party competition ........................................................................... 17 2.2.2 A dynamic perspective on party competition .............................................................. 19 2.3 PARTIES AND VOTERS............................................................................................................ 21 2.3.1 Voting and the role of information.............................................................................. 23 2.3.2 Voting and the role of party “credibility”................................................................... 24 2.4 PARTIES AND THEIR ORGANIZATIONS ................................................................................... 25 2.4.1 The role and power of party members......................................................................... 25 2.4.2 Sources of income........................................................................................................ 27 2.5 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. 29 3 THE RECEPTION AND ACCEPTANCE OF PARTY POLICY SHIFTS .......................... 30 3.1 THE VOTERS’ PERCEPTION OF PARTY POSITION SHIFTS......................................................... 31 3.1.1 Developing the model: The reception and acceptance of party position shifts........... 33 3.1.2 The reception criterion................................................................................................ 33 3.1.3 The acceptance criterion............................................................................................. 34 3.2 VOTERS’ RECEPTION AND ACCEPTANCE AND VOTE CHOICES ............................................... 35 3.3 PARTY REACTIONS TO THE VOTERS’ RECEPTION AND ACCEPTANCE .................................... 37 3.3.1 Holding competitors’ and voters’ positions constant.................................................. 39 3.3.2 A dynamic model: party position shifts of all parties.................................................. 43 3.3.3 Voter position shifts and their effects on party position shifts .................................... 45 3.4 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. 48 4 CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF VOTERS’ RECEPTION AND ACCEPTANCE ... 51 4.1 IMPACTS ON THE RECEPTION OF PARTY POSITION SHIFTS..................................................... 51 4.1.1 Political awareness ..................................................................................................... 52 4.1.2 Education .................................................................................................................... 54 4.1.3 Updating information following voter position shifts ................................................. 55 4.1.4 Media exposure ........................................................................................................... 57 4.1.5 The complexity of the political market ........................................................................ 59 4.1.6 Magnitude of party position shifts............................................................................... 61 4.2 IMPACTS ON THE ACCEPTANCE OF PARTY POSITION SHIFTS ................................................. 62 4.2.1 Changes in party leadership ....................................................................................... 63 4.2.2 Prestige of political leaders ........................................................................................ 64 4.2.3 Party past behavior ..................................................................................................... 66 4.2.4 Party identification...................................................................................................... 67 4.2.5 Public opinion shifts.................................................................................................... 68 4.2.6 Party ideology ............................................................................................................. 70 4.3 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. 73 5 VOTER PERCEPTIONS OF PARTY POSITION SHIFTS IN GREAT BRITAIN: DATA AND METHODS......................................................................................................................... 76 5.1 DATA: THE BRITISH PANEL ELECTION STUDIES, 1974 – 2001............................................... 77 5.1.1 The dependent variable ............................................................................................... 77 5.1.2 Independent variables ................................................................................................. 80 5.1.3 Data structure and number of observations................................................................ 86 5.2 METHODS: A TWO-STAGE LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL .................................................... 86 5.3 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. 90 6 VOTER PERCEPTIONS OF PARTY POSITION SHIFTS IN GREAT BRITAIN: RESULTS .................................................................................................................................... 92 6.1 THE “NEW LABOUR” POLICY SHIFT ...................................................................................... 93 6.2 THE PERCEPTION OF PARTY POLICY SHIFTS IN GREAT BRITAIN 1974-2001 ....................... 100 6.2.1 Nationalization vs. Privatization............................................................................... 101 6.2.2 Taxes vs. Services...................................................................................................... 105 6.2.3 Unemployment vs. Inflation....................................................................................... 107 6.3 OVERVIEW: WHAT CAN WE DRAW FROM THE DIFFERENT MODEL SPECIFICATIONS? ......... 110 6.3.1 An overview............................................................................................................... 110 6.3.2 Does political awareness matter? ............................................................................. 112 6.3.3 Are voters more likely to accept party shifts in line with their personal policy shifts? ................................................................................................................................... 113 6.3.4 Explaining contradicting effects................................................................................ 114 6.3.5 Voters’ acceptance of party policy shifts deviation from their “expected”