THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Volume 4, No. 2 May 2006 Terrorism The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is a Central Asia-Caucasus & Silk Road Studies Program publication. The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program is a joint transatlantic independent and externally funded research and policy center. The Joint Center has offices in Washington and Uppsala, and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Department of Eurasian Studies of Uppsala University. It is the first Institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is today firmly established as a leading center for research and policy worldwide, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders and journalists. The Joint Center aims to be at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security and development in the region; and to function as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion of the region through its applied research, its publications, teaching, research cooperation, public lectures and seminars. The China and Eurasia Forum is an independent forum which seeks to bring together regional experts, academics, government policy makers, and business leaders with an interest in the growing relationship between China and Eurasia. Focusing primarily on Sino-Central Asian, Sino-Russian, and Sino-Caucasian relations, the aim of China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is to foster discussion and information sharing between a geographically distant community that recognizes the significance of China's emergence in this important part of the world. The journal aims to provide our readers with a singular and reliable assessment of events and trends in the region written in an analytical tone rather than a polemical one. Upcoming Issues * August 2006 (deadline for submissions: August 1) * November 2006 (deadline for submissions: October 15) Subscriptions Subscription inquiries and requests for hard copies should be addressed to: The China and Eurasia Forum, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036, United States or The China and Eurasia Forum, The Silk Road Studies Program, Uppsala University, Box 514, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected] or call +46 - 18 - 471 71 16. Visit our Website at: http://www.chinaeurasia.org The views and opinions of authors expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the China and Eurasia Forum, the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program or the sponsors. Printed in Sweden by Uppsala University © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, 2005. The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly (ISSN 1653-4212) is published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program <www.silkroadstudies.org>. Map used in the cover design is courtesy of the University of Texas Libraries, The University of Texas at Austin. THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Volume 4, No. 2 May 2006 Editor-in-Chief Niklas Swanström Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Johns Hopkins University, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies & Department of Eurasian Studies, Uppsala University This publication was made possible with the support of The Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY EDITORIAL BOARD Editor-in-Chief Niklas Swanström Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Johns Hopkins University, U.S. & Uppsala University, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Assistant Editors Christopher Len Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Uppsala University, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Nicklas Norling Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program Uppsala University, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Senior Advisors Daniel L. Burghart Malia K. Du Mont National Defense University, Co-Founder of the China-Eurasia Forum United States and Former Associate Editor of the CEF Quarterly. Currently at the CNA Svante Cornell Corporation, United States Research Director of the Central Asia- Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Matthew Oresman Program, Johns Hopkins University, U.S. Co-Founder of the China-Eurasia Forum, & Uppsala University, Sweden Former Director of the China-Eurasia Forum and Former Editor of the CEF David M. Finkelstein Quarterly, United States The CNA Corporation, United States S. Frederick Starr Pan Guang Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Institute, United States China Farkhod Tolipov Bates Gill National University of Uzbekistan, Center for Strategic and International Uzbekistan Studies, United States Dmitri V. Trenin Zhao Huasheng Carnegie Endowment for International Fudan University, China Peace, Russia James A. Millward Georgetown University, United States THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Volume 4, No. 2 May 2006 Contents Central Asia in Al-Qaeda’s Vision of the Anti-American Jihad, 1979-2006 Michael Scheuer ................................................................................................5 Terrorism in Eurasia: Enhancing the Multilateral Response Richard Weitz ...................................................................................................11 East Turkestan Terrorism and the Terrorist Arc: China’s Post-9/11 Anti- Terror Strategy Pan Guang........................................................................................................ 19 Nuclear Smuggling, Rogue States and Terrorists Rensselaer Lee .................................................................................................. 25 Reevaluating the Risks of Terrorist Attacks Against Energy Infrastructure in Eurasia Pavel Baev........................................................................................................ 33 The Phenomenology of “Akromiya”: Separating Facts from Fiction Alisher Ilkhamov .............................................................................................. 39 Perception and Treatment of the "Extremist" Islamic Group Hizb ut- Tahrir by Central Asian Governments Saule Mukhametrakhimova ..............................................................................49 An Al-Qaeda Associate Group Operating in China? Rohan Gunaratna & Kenneth George Pereire................................................... 55 Will Kazakh Authorities Avoid Extremist Pitfalls? Marat Yermukanov..........................................................................................63 Cross Border Terrorism Issues Plaguing Pakistan–Afghanistan Relations Rizwan Zeb ......................................................................................................69 Confronting Terrorism and Other Evils in China: All Quiet on the Western Front? Chien-peng Chung............................................................................................ 75 Fact and Fiction: A Chinese Documentary on Eastern Turkestan Terrorism Yitzhak Shichor................................................................................................89 Strategic Surprise? Central Asia in 2006 Stephen Blank................................................................................................. 109 Counterinsurgency, Counterterrorism, State-building and Security Cooperation in Central Asia Michael Mihalka ............................................................................................. 131 Multilateralism, Bilateralism and Unilateralism in Fighting Terrorism in the SCO Area Farkhod Tolipov .............................................................................................. 153 Editor’s Note Dear Colleagues and Friends, The previous issue of the China and Eurasia Forum (CEF) Quarterly addressed the narcotics problem and its negative impact on the region. Terrorism is another key challenge faced by the governments today. On the one hand, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) was effectively destroyed during the U.S. intervention in Afghanistan; the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) in Xinjiang has demonstrated limited activity in the 2000s; and Al-Qaeda seems to prioritize other theaters for staging its operations. On the other hand, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) continues to stress the persistent threat of terrorism, the Andijan uprising demonstrated how fragile the region is, and the Taleban is gaining ground in parts of Afghanistan. Al–Qaeda, moreover, is still operating in the vicinity despite its low profile in the region. This setting provokes a number of questions of critical importance for present and future counter-terror efforts in the region, and this is particularly crucial considering the stakes involved: First, the remaining nuclear materials in the post-Soviet Central Asian states are particularly vulnerable to smuggling and theft. Second, continued instability in all of the Central Asian states (with the partial exception of Kazakhstan), combined with a deteriorating situation in Afghanistan will also give terrorists the upper hand in disrupting the stability of region. A forewarning was given during the Andijan upheaval in 2005, and the turbulence unfolding in Kyrgyzstan the same year with criminal interest supporting the “revolution”. Third, the young population in Central