County Durham and Darlington Fire and Rescue Service Community Risk Profile 2021/22 – 2023/24 Community Risk Profile 2020/21 – 2022/23 Intentionally blank Page 2 of 114 Community Risk Profile 2020/21 – 2022/23 Contents Population ............................................................................................................................. 8 Population density ................................................................................................................. 9 Age ..................................................................................................................................... 10 Deprivation .......................................................................................................................... 11 Indices of Deprivation 2019 ............................................................................................. 11 Deprivation in County Durham and Darlington ................................................................. 11 Ethnicity .............................................................................................................................. 14 Religion or belief ................................................................................................................. 16 Smoking .............................................................................................................................. 17 Language proficiency .......................................................................................................... 19 The National Security Risk Assessment .............................................................................. 20 The National Risk Register (NRR)....................................................................................... 21 Index of risks from the National Risk Register: ................................................................ 22 National long term trends .................................................................................................... 24 Climate change ............................................................................................................... 24 Geopolitics ...................................................................................................................... 24 Technology ...................................................................................................................... 24 Health and demographics ................................................................................................ 24 Community Risk Register .................................................................................................... 25 Human disease (pandemic influenza). ............................................................................. 25 Flooding. ......................................................................................................................... 26 Failure of the electricity network. ..................................................................................... 26 Cyber............................................................................................................................... 26 Malicious incidents. ......................................................................................................... 26 Adverse weather. ............................................................................................................ 26 Local Authority Plans .......................................................................................................... 27 County Durham Local Plan .............................................................................................. 27 Darlington Local Plan ...................................................................................................... 28 Housing ........................................................................................................................... 28 Future business allocation ............................................................................................... 28 Health inequalities ........................................................................................................... 29 Risk scenarios..................................................................................................................... 30 Linked and Compound Risks ........................................................................................... 31 Page 3 of 114 Community Risk Profile 2020/21 – 2022/23 ........................................................................................................................................ 31 R1 Dwelling fires ................................................................................................................. 33 R2 Other residential building fires ....................................................................................... 43 R3 Other non-residential building fires ................................................................................ 47 R4 Road vehicle fires .......................................................................................................... 50 R5 Other outdoor fires ......................................................................................................... 54 R6 Secondary fires ............................................................................................................. 57 R7 Wildfires ........................................................................................................................ 63 R8 Rescues from water ....................................................................................................... 65 R9 Rescues from height ...................................................................................................... 68 R10 Road traffic collisions (RTC) ........................................................................................ 71 R11 Rail incidents ............................................................................................................... 77 R12 Aircraft incidents .......................................................................................................... 79 R13 Sea vessels ................................................................................................................. 81 R14 Flooding ...................................................................................................................... 83 R15 Industrial fires .............................................................................................................. 85 R16 Hazardous materials .................................................................................................... 87 R17 Waste and recycling sites ............................................................................................ 90 R18 Animal incidents .......................................................................................................... 92 R19 Buildings of heritage and special interest ..................................................................... 95 R20 Marauding terrorist/malicious attacks ........................................................................... 97 CDDFRS Risk Rating Matrix ............................................................................................... 99 Appendix one: CRP Risk Assessment Methodology ......................................................... 103 Risk identification - the Reasonable Worst Case Scenario ............................................ 103 Impact assessment........................................................................................................ 103 Likelihood assessment .................................................................................................. 106 Confidence .................................................................................................................... 106 Visualising risk assessment ........................................................................................... 107 Appendix two: CRP Terminology and Definitions .............................................................. 108 Appendix three: Dwelling fire risk identification pyramid .................................................... 110 Appendix four: Business fire risk identification process ..................................................... 112 Appendix five: References and sources of information ...................................................... 114 Page 4 of 114 Community Risk Profile 2020/21 – 2022/23 Foreword The Fire and Rescue National Framework for England requires that every fire and rescue authority must assess all foreseeable fire and rescue related risks that could affect their communities, whether they are local, cross-border, multiauthority and/or national in nature from fires to terrorist attacks. Regard must be given to Community Risk Registers produced by Local Resilience Forums and any other appropriate local risk analyses. There are elements of national, regional and local risks throughout the Service area, with a broad range of consequences for the people who live, work and visit County Durham and Darlington. It is therefore essential that an effective methodology is used to assess the risks and inform the plans to mitigate them. As a fire and rescue service (FRS) we have had to adapt how we work to respond to the significant funding cuts during this period of austerity. It is essential that we understand both the people