Security Crises in the 21st Century and How to Manage Them Social and Security aspects, Volume 1 Proceedings of the international scientific conference held online, October 13 and 14, 2020. ISBN: 978-86-902810-1-5 CARUK, HUMS, IRMO and Libertas, Belgrade, 2021. PUBLISHERS: Center for Risk Analysis and Crisis Management (CARUK), Belgrade, Serbia Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO), Zagreb, Croatia Croatian Association for International Studies (HUMS), Zagreb, Croatia Institute for Standardization of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia EDITORS: Prof. dr Zoran Keković, Faculty of Security Studies, Serbia Dr Marija Đorić, Institute for Political Studies, Serbia Doc. dr Jadranka Polović, Libertas International University, Croatia REVIEWERS: – Colonel prof. dr sc. med Dragan Mikić, Military Medical Academy, Belgrade, Serbia – Prof. dr Marina Mitrevski, Faculty of Philosophy, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, Skopje, North Macedonia – Prof. dr Denis Ĉaleta, Institute for Corporative Security Studies, Ljubljana, Slovenia EDITORIAL BOARD: – Prof. dr Zoran Keković, Faculty of Security Studies, Serbia – Dr Marija Đorić, Institute for Political Studies, Serbia – Doc. dr sc. Jadranka Polović, Libertas International University, Croatia – Dr sc. Jadranka Dujić Frlan, Croatian Association for International Studies, Croatia – Prof. dr Elizabeta Ristanović, Military Medical Academy, Belgrade, Serbia – Prof. dr Mirsada Hukić, Academy of Science and Arts of B&H, European Academy of Science (EAS), Faculty of Medicine of the University in Tuzla, B&H – Prof. dr Drago Nedić, Commission for Zoonoses in Republica Srpska, B&H – Prof. dr Elmedin Muratbegović, Faculty of Criminalistics, Criminology and Security Studies, University of Sarajevo, B&H – Prof. dr Nebojša Kavarić, European Center for Peace and Development, UN University, University of Montenegro – Prof. dr Denis Ĉaleta, Faculty of Administrative and European Studies, Lubljana, Slovenia – Prof. dr Ţelimir Kešetović, Faculty of Security Studies, Belgrade, Serbia – Nevena Stanković, PhD candidate, Faculty of Security Studies, Belgrade, Serbia Technical Assistant: Nataša Miletić Printed by: Jovšić Printing Centar Copies: 200 Security Crises in the 21st Century and How to Manage Them: Social and Security aspects, Volume 1 (Proceedings of the international scientific conference held online, October 13 and 14, 2020; Organizers: Center for Risk Analysis and Crisis Management from Belgrade (CARUK), Croatian Association for International Studies (HUMS), Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO) and the Libertas International University. Security Crises in the 21st Century and How to Manage Them: Vol. 1 C O N T E N T EDITORIAL ........................................................................................................... 3 PART ONE: RISK AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT .......................................... 7 Vlatko Cvrtila SECURITY MANAGEMENT AND NEW THREATS ......................................... 8 Slobodan P. Simonovic QUANTITATIVE RESILIENCE – DECISION CRITERION FOR MANAGEMENT OF DISASTERS ............................................................. 23 Aleksandar Jovanović MANAGING RISKS AND RESILIENCE OF UNCERTAIN FUTURE(S): APPLICATION TO CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES ..................................... 36 Stjepan Šterc, Monika Komušanac THE NEW EUROPEAN PARADIGM OF WORKFORCE RANGE: SECURITY CRISES IN THE 21ST CENTURY AND HOW TO MANAGE THEM? ..................................................................... 48 Zoran Keković, Nataša Miletić, Milan Vuković FLOOD RISK REDUCTION SYSTEM IN THE SAVA BASIN ........................ 66 Beba Bajalski DANGER OF WORLD CONFLICTS EXPANSION DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE ...................................................................................... 78 Ivan Pekić INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM AS A FACTOR THREATENING HUMAN SECURITY ............................................................... 88 Sanja Stošić, Milena Pešić COVID-19: GLOBAL ISSUES AND LOCAL SERBIAN RESPONSES .......... 101 Jelena Dinić, Zoran Keković URBAN COMMUNITIES‟ RESILIENCE TO WILDFIRE: THE REPUBLIC OF GREECE ........................................................................... 113 PART TWO: COVID-19 AS A SECURITY CHALLENGE ......................... 125 Jadranka Polović COVID-19 AS A SECURITY CHALLENGE: CONSPIRACY THEORY OR QUESTIONS THAT REQUIRE ANSWERS ... 126 1 Security Crises in the 21st Century and How to Manage Them: Vol. 1 Marija Đorić SOCIOPOLITICAL CRISES IN THE TIMES OF COVID-19 ........................... 140 Sanja Vujaĉić THE REPLACEMENT OF THESIS IN CORONAVIRUS CRISIS ................... 155 SlaĊana Ćurĉić “SOLIDARY UNION” - PRESENT AND PERSPECTIVES ............................. 175 Ljiljana Dapĉević-Marković SIGNIFICANCE OF JURISPRUDENCE OF THE EUROPEAN COURT OF HUMAN RIGHTS IN THE CONDITIONS OF THE COVID-19 VIRUS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA ......................... 183 Jadranka Dujić Frlan CULTURE AS A DRIVER OF DEVELOPMENT AFTER COVID-19 PANDEMIC ......................................................................... 194 Jure Vujić THE BIO-POLITICS OF COVID-19 AND THE QUESTION OF POST-TOTALITARIANISM ................................. 206 AUTHORIZED SPEECHES FROM THE CONFERENCE ......................... 219 Lord Toby Harris LEADERSHIP IN THE TIME OF COVID ......................................................... 220 David Rubens COVID-19: LESSONS FROM A “NEAR-MISS”............................................... 225 2 Security Crises in the 21st Century and How to Manage Them: Vol. 1 EDITORIAL Dear readers, International video conference entitled “Security crises in the 21st century and how to manage them”, held in October of 2020 and organized by the Center for Risk Analysis and Crisis Management (CARUK) from Belgrade and Croatian Association for International Studies (HUMS), with a comprehensive logistical and technical support by the Institute for Standardization of the Republic of Serbia, in cooperation with the Institute for Development of International Relations (IRMO) and Libertas International University from Zagreb, has shown the scope of importance of exchanging experiences in risk and crisis management, especially in the context of COVID-19 pandemics, as well as regarding numerous other social, economic and security challenges we are facing. The conference gathered leading scientists and experts from regional states, as well as from the United Kingdom and, as organizers, we opted for a multidisciplinary approach to contemporary security challenges, aware of the fact that a long-term solution must be sought for in linking different academic disciplines, and above all in biomedicine, technical and political science, as well as in security studies. Exactly due to this, the conference enabled expert and scientific authorities of various profiles, as holders of public functions and members of crisis teams from the countries of the region, to articulate their attitudes in the context of security challenges and strengthening regional response. The proceedings entitled “Security crises in the 21st century and how to manage them” represent a continuance of a dialogue which started at the conference, and throught this selection of papers, we tended to problematize the burning aspects of contemporary security crises which arose as a consequence of global structural changes in international relations, formed through multidimensional processes of globalization and growing geopolitical tensions. The scientific works are thematically divided into two parts, whilst authorized speeches given by the British scientists and security experts – Lord Toby Harris and David Rubens, are attached. In the first part of the Proceedings (VOLUME 1), entitled RISK AND CRISIS MANAGMENT, the papers of authors (V. Cvrtila; S.P. Simonović; A. Jovanović; S. Šterc; M. Komušanac; B. Bajalski; I. Pekić; S. Stošić; M. Pešić; Z. Keković; J. Dinić; and others) thematize risk management and new types of security threats – from ethnic and religious conflicts, terrorism, organized crime, global migrations, demographic disbalance, drainage of natural resources, climate change, increased poverty, to COVID-19 pandemics. Namely, globalization has changed the identity of human communities everywhere and formed a global risk society, which fundamental features are insecurity and uncertainty, and thus, it became evident that its political, economic, security, social, but also individual challenges ask for a shift in focus of the 3 Security Crises in the 21st Century and How to Manage Them: Vol. 1 international public towards risk management, prevention, as well as collective risk management. The collapse of the Cold War order resulted in changes in security politics, as well as recognition and determination of priorities of new challenges, but also the increasing challenges in security system management and organization, exactly due to the change of nature of sovereign conflicts which transited from wars between states into a conflict within the global society that is, as Fukuyama states, strongly fractured into narrow identities. Traditional approaches to security management have shown numerous shortages in responding to contemporary challenges and structural weaknesses emerging from interaction of complex systems. The synergy of natural, social and technical science is of essential significance, emerging with the goal of creating new knowledge and solutions in order to respond to complex challenges, and first of all, by overcoming traditional management models based