CCANADIAN FFOOD TTRENDS TTO 22002200 AA LLONG RRANGE CCONSUMER OOUTLOOK PREPARED FOR AGRICULTURE AND AGRI-FOOD CANADA OTTAWA,, ONTARIIO PREPARED BY SERECON MANAGEMENT CONSULTING INC. EDMONTON,, ALBERTA JULY,, 2005 Canadian Food Trends to 2020 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada A Long Range Consumer Outlook TTAABBLLEE OOFF CCOONNTTEENNTTSS INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW ...............................................................................................................................I 1.0 WHO WILL HOLD THE PURSE STRINGS? ......................................................................................................1 2.0 HEALTHY LIFESTYLES ............................................................................................................................................4 2.1 OBESITY AND HEALTH............................................................................................................................................ 6 2.1.1 Low Carb… Fad or Trend?...................................................................................................................... 8 2.2 THE FAT DEBATE – WHAT ’S GOOD AND WHAT ’S BAD..................................................................................... 8 2.3 A SALTY ISSUE.......................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.4 DRINK YOUR MILK!............................................................................................................................................... 10 2.5 HIDDEN THREATS: FOOD SENSITIVITIES............................................................................................................. 10 2.6 HEALTHY ALTERNATIVES: THE OPPORTUNITY................................................................................................. 12 2.6.1 Making Every Bite Count ...................................................................................................................... 13 3.0 CHANGING TASTES .................................................................................................................................................16 3.1 THE ETHNIC MARKET ............................................................................................................................................ 16 3.1.1 A Melting Pot or the Canadian Mosaic? ............................................................................................. 16 3.1.2 Faith and Food ......................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1.3 Travel and Tourism................................................................................................................................. 22 3.1.4 The Ethnic Opportunity.......................................................................................................................... 23 3.2 THE VEGGIE MOVEMENT ...................................................................................................................................... 23 3.3 SMALL INDULGENCES............................................................................................................................................ 24 3.4 WHAT ’S GROWING AND WHAT ’S SLOWING...................................................................................................... 25 3.4.1 Preference Shifts by Meal Occasion .................................................................................................... 25 4.0 IT’S ALL ABOUT CONVENIENCE......................................................................................................................27 4.1 CHALLENGING THE NOTION OF THE TRADITIONAL FAMILY.......................................................................... 27 4.2 THE EVOLVING WORK FORCE.............................................................................................................................. 28 4.3 THE CONVENIENCE FOOD OPPORTUNITY........................................................................................................... 30 5.0 THE EDUCATED CONSUMER: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE ISSUES IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM ..............................................................................................................................................................32 5.1 FOOD SAFETY AND QUALITY............................................................................................................................... 32 5.2 HOW OUR FOOD IS PRODUCED............................................................................................................................. 33 5.2.1 The Organic Market ................................................................................................................................ 33 5.2.2 GE Foods.................................................................................................................................................. 34 5.2.3 The Ethical Treatment of Animals ....................................................................................................... 35 5.2.4 Country of Origin and Traceability ...................................................................................................... 35 5.3 FOOD IN OUR WORLD............................................................................................................................................ 36 5.3.1 Packaging and the Environment ........................................................................................................... 36 5.3.2 Food Waste............................................................................................................................................... 37 5.4 CONSUMER-DIRECTED INTERVENTIONS............................................................................................................. 37 6.0 SPENDING OUR FOOD DOLLAR ........................................................................................................................41 6.1 WHAT WE SPEND ................................................................................................................................................... 41 6.2 WHERE WE SPEND IT............................................................................................................................................. 42 6.3 WHAT WE SPEND IT ON........................................................................................................................................ 44 6.4 FORECASTING HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES...................................................................................................... 44 7.0 THE VIEW AHEAD: A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF CONSUMPTION TRENDS......................47 7.1 TECHNICAL APPROACH TO CONSUMPTION PROJECTIONS............................................................................... 47 7.1.1 Theoretical Background......................................................................................................................... 47 Canadian Food Trends to 2020 Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada A Long Range Consumer Outlook 7.2 THE MEAT GROUP.................................................................................................................................................. 50 7.2.1 Historical Trend Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 50 7.2.2 Correlation Analysis of Meat Consumption ......................................................................................... 2 7.2.3 Meat Consumption Analysis and Projections....................................................................................... 2 7.2.4 Meat Consumption Summary ................................................................................................................ 50 7.3 THE EGG AND DAIRY GROUP............................................................................................................................... 51 7.3.1 Correlation Analysis of Egg and Dairy................................................................................................ 51 7.3.2 Egg and Dairy Consumption Analysis and Projections.................................................................... 51 7.3.3 Egg and Dairy Consumption Summary ............................................................................................... 54 7.4 THE FRUIT GROUP.................................................................................................................................................. 55 7.4.1 Correlation Analysis of the Fruit Products.......................................................................................... 55 7.4.2 Fruit Consumption Analysis and Projections..................................................................................... 56 7.4.3 Fruit Group Consumption Summary .................................................................................................... 58 7.5 THE VEGETABLE GROUP ....................................................................................................................................... 58 7.5.1 Correlation Analysis of Vegetable Products....................................................................................... 59 7.5.2 Consumption Analysis and Projections............................................................................................... 59 7.5.3 Vegetable