ACHIEVING BORO RICE PRODUCTION TARGETS IN FY2009-10: CHALLENGES AND ACTIONS REQUIRED Occasional Paper: 87 Uttam Deb Nafisa Khaled Subir Kanti Bairagi Muhammad Al Amin Mazbahul Golam Ahamad Kaniz Tasnima Publisher Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) House No 40/C, Road No 11 (new), Dhanmondi R/A Dhaka-1209, Bangladesh Tel: (880 2) 8124770, 9141703, 9141734 Fax: (880 2) 8130951 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.cpd.org.bd First Published March 2010 © Centre for Policy Dialogue Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of CPD. Tk. 100 ISSN 1818-1570 (Print), ISSN 1818-1597 (Online) The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), established in 1993, is a civil society initiative to promote an ongoing dialogue between the principal partners in the decision making and implementing process. The dialogues are designed to address important policy issues and to seek constructive solutions to these problems. The Centre has already organised a series of such dialogues at local, regional and national levels. The CPD has also organised a number of South Asian bilateral and regional dialogues as well as some international dialogues. These dialogues have brought together ministers, opposition frontbenchers, MPs, business leaders, NGOs, donors, professionals and other functional group in civil society within a non-confrontational environment to promote focused discussions. The CPD seeks to create a national policy consciousness where members of civil society will be made aware of critical policy issues affecting their lives and will come together in support of particular policy agendas which they feel are conducive to the well-being of the country. In support of the dialogue process the Centre is engaged in research programmes which are both serviced by and are intended to serve as inputs for particular dialogues organised by the Centre throughout the year. Some of the major research programmes of the CPD include Macroeconomic Performance Analysis, Agriculture and Rural Development, Eradication of Poverty, Trade, Regional Cooperation and Global Integration, Investment Promotion, Infrastructure and Enterprise Development, Climate Change and Environment, Human Development and Social Protection, and Development Governance, Policies and Institutions. The CPD also conducts periodic public perception surveys on policy issues and issues of developmental concerns. With a view to promote vision and policy awareness amongst the young people of the country, CPD is also implementing a Youth Leadership Programme. Dissemination of information and knowledge on critical developmental issues continues to remain an important component of CPD’s activities. Pursuant to this CPD maintains an active publication programme, both in Bangla and in English. As part of its dissemination programme, CPD has been bringing out CPD Occasional Paper Series on a regular basis. Dialogue background papers, investigative reports and results of perception surveys which relate to issues of high public interest are published under this series. The Occasional Paper Series also include draft research papers and reports, which may be subsequently published by the CPD. The present paper titled Achieving Boro Rice Production Targets in FY2009-10: Challenges and Actions Required has been prepared under the CPD-IRBD programme. The paper was presented at the CPD Dialogue on Achieving Boro Rice Production Targets in FY2009-10: Challenges and Actions Required, on 23 December 2009, at CIRDAP Auditorium, Dhaka by Uttam Deb, Head, Research Division, CPD. This paper has been prepared by a team of researchers led by Uttam Deb, Head, Research Division, CPD. Other members of the team are Nafisa Khaled, Senior Research Associate, CPD, Subir Kanti Bairagi, Research Associate, CPD, Muhammad Al Amin, Research Associate, CPD, Mazbahul Golam Ahamad, Programme Associate, CPD, and Kaniz Tasnima, Programme Associate, CPD. Assistant Editor: Anisatul Fatema Yousuf, Director, Dialogue & Communication, CPD. Series Editor: Mustafizur Rahman, Executive Director, CPD. Contents ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................................... viii 1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 1 2. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN GLOBAL AND DOMESTIC FOOD SITUATION .............................................. 2 2.1 Global Food Situation: Production, Prices and Trade .................................................................... 2 2.2 Domestic Food Situation: Production, Prices and Import ............................................................. 4 3. BORO PRODUCTION TARGET: IS IT REALISTIC? ...................................................................................... 9 3.1 Reality Check for Target in Boro ..................................................................................................... 10 3.2 Targets at the District Level ............................................................................................................ 12 4. INPUT DELIVERY STRATEGY .................................................................................................................... 19 4.1 Seed ............................................................................................................................................... 19 4.2 Fertiliser ......................................................................................................................................... 26 4.3 Crop Husbandry Practices and Technology Dissemination ........................................................... 28 4.4 Irrigation ........................................................................................................................................ 28 4.5 Agricultural Credit………………………………………………………………........................................................ 42 5. PROCUREMENT STRATEGY TO ENSURE BORO PRODUCTION ................................................................ 43 5.1 Projected Cost of Boro Production ................................................................................................ 44 5.2 Procurement Strategy ................................................................................................................... 46 6. POLICY IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................................................................ 51 References .............................................................................................................................................. 53 List of Tables and Figures Tables: Table 1 Import of Foodgrains by Bangladesh in FY2008-09 9 Table 2 Import of Foodgrains by Bangladesh in FY2009-10 9 Table 3 Area and Production of Rice in FY2009-10 10 Table 4 Targeted Boro Area and Production in FY2009-10 against Actual 10 Area and Production in FY2008-09 Table 5 District-wise Targeted Boro Rice Area in FY2009-10 as Percentage 17 of Boro Rice Area in FY2008-09 Table 6 HYVs Suitable for Cultivation in the Boro Season in FY2009-10 19 Table 7 Rice Hybrids Registered for Cultivation by National Seed Board: 22 1998 - 2009 Table 8 Demand and Supply of Boro Seed in Bangladesh 24 Table 9 Implementation Status of Seed Projects in ADP FY2009-10 25 Table 10 Supply of Fertiliser in Bangladesh 26 Table 11 Implementation Status of Irrigation Projects: FY2009-10 41 Table 12 Agricultural Credit Disbursement in FY2009-10 43 Table 13 Projected per Acre Production Cost of Boro Rice in Bangladesh 45 During the April-June 2010 Harvesting Season Figures: Figure 1 Comparison of Domestic Rice Prices in Bangladesh, India and 3 Thailand : July 2006 – November 2009 Figure 2 Production of Foodgrains in FY2008-09 4 Figure 3: Monthly Wholesale and Retail Price of Rice and Paddy at Farm- 6 level: July 2007 – December 2009 Figure 4: Average Daily Rice Wage of Agricultural Labour (without Food) in 7 Bangladesh: FY1990-91 – FY2008-09 Figure 5: Trends in Inflation (Moving Average): July 2001 – October 2009 8 Figure 6: Trends in Area, Production and Yield of Boro Rice: FY1980-81 – 11 FY2008-09 Figure 7: Targeted Area Under Boro Rice Cultivation in Different Districts: 13 FY2009-10 Figure 8: Changes in Target Area in FY2009-10 Compared to Achieved Area 14 in FY2008-09 Figure 9: Target of Boro Rice Production: FY2009-10 15 Figure 10: Changes in Production Target in FY2009-10 Compared to 16 Achieved Production in FY2008-09 Figure 11: Upazila-wise Area under Modern Irrigation System in the Rabi 18 Season: FY2008-09 Figure 12: HYVs Suitable for Cultivation in Boro Season: FY2009-10 21 Figure 13: International Prices of Fertilisers: July 2005 - November 2009 27 Figure 14: Trends in Electricity Users in Agriculture 30 Figure 15: District-wise Irrigated Area under Electricity-operated Engines in 32 the Rabi Season: FY2008-09 Figure 16: District-wise Share of Irrigated Area under Electricity-operated 33 Engines in the Rabi Season: FY2008-09 Figure 17: Upazila-wise Irrigated Area under Electricity-operated Engines in 34 the Rabi Season: FY2008-09 Figure 18: Upazila-wise Percentage of Irrigated Area under Electricity- 35 operated Engines in the Rabi Season: FY2008-09 Figure 19: District-wise Irrigated Area under Diesel-driven Engines in the 37 Rabi Season: FY2008-09 Figure 20: District-wise Percentage of Irrigated Area under Diesel-driven 38 Engines in the Rabi Season: