Militancy in the Pakistani Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Afghanistan Militancy inthePakistani Federally Administ MAGNUS NORELL (ED.) ered Tribal Areas(FATA)and Afghanistan FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency, is a mainly assignment-funded agency under the Ministry of Defence. The core activities are research, method and technology development, as well as studies conducted in the interests of Swedish defence and the safety and security of society. The organisation employs approximately 1000 personnel of whom about 800 are scientists. This makes FOI Sweden’s largest research institute. FOI gives its customers access to leading-edge expertise in a large number of fi elds such as security policy studies, defence and security related analyses, the assessment of various types of threat, systems for control and management of crises, protection against and management of hazardous substances, IT security and the potential offered by new sensors. FOI Swedish Defence Research Agency Phone: +46 8 555 030 00 www.foi.se FOI-R--2727--SE User Report Defence Analysis Defence Analysis Fax: +46 8 555 031 00 ISSN 1650-1942 February 2010 SE-164 90 Stockholm Magnus Norell (Ed.) Militancy in the Pakistani Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Afghanistan Cover picture: Scanpix FOI-R--2727--SE Title Militancy in the Pakistani Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Afghanistan Rapportnr/Report no FOI-R--2727--SE Rapporttyp/ Report Type Användarrapport/User Report Månad/Month Februari/February Utgivningsår/Year 2010 Antal sidor/Pages 133 ISSN ISSN 1650-1942 Projektnr/Project no A12004 Godkänd av/Approved by Maria Lignell Jakobsson FOI, Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency Avdelningen för Försvarsanalys Division of Defence Analysis 164 90 Stockholm SE-164 90 Stockholm FOI-R--2727--SE Sammanfattning Det primära syftet med denna rapport är att identifiera några av de militanta organisationer, samt ledande personer inom dessa, som är aktiva i de s.k. ”Tribal Areas” (Federally Administered Tribal Areas – FATA) i Pakistan samt dessas kopplingar till Afghanistan. Rapporten pekar på och diskuterar det stöd som dessa militanta organisationer – på båda sidor om gränsen mellan Pakistan och Afghanistan – får från olika håll i Pakistan. Vidare visar rapporten på hur sammankopplade säkerhetsproblemen i Pakistan och Afghanistan är. Rapporten argumenterar för att säkerhetssituationen i båda dessa länder, för att lösas, måste diskuteras och hanteras samtidigt. Rapporten visar också på de olika strategier som den pakistanska regeringen har använt sig av för att försöka separera problemen i FATA från de i Afghanistan, hittills med ringa framgång. Nyckelord: Pakistan, Afghanistan, FATA, terrorism, Tribal areas, gränser, Durand-linjen, militarism, militanter, lågnivåkonflikter, TTP, Nato, uppror, gränsöverskridande, Jihad 3 FOI-R--2727--SE Summary In conclusion, the primary objective of this report has been the identification of militant organisations operating within the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and some more detailed profiling and identification of their supporters in the rest of Pakistan. This report also shows the scope of the support that the militants – on both sides of the Durand Line – receive from Pakistan. In addition, the report shows how interconnected the security situation in Pakistan is with the low-intensity war in Afghanistan. It is obvious that in order to come to terms with the situation in the FATA (and increasingly in Baluchistan and the rest of the North West Frontier Province), Afghanistan and Pakistan need to be discussed simultaneously. In addition, the report map describes the support for the militants look like as well as whom some of the key players in Afghanistan are, both individuals and groups. In the report we have also outlined the various initiatives taken by the new Pakistani government to open up a “new approach” (as the term goes) in negotiations between, on one hand the Islamabad government, and on the other, the tribes and militants in the North West. The emphasis on negotiations and a possible “down-shifting” when it comes to the use of the military, have still to render any clear breakthroughs between the government and the militants and the tribes. But the will to change is there. Keywords: Pakistan, Afghanistan, FATA, Terrorism, Tribal areas, Tribes, Border, Durand Line, Militancy, Militants, Low-intensity war, TTP, NATO, Insurgency, Cross-border, Jihad. 4 FOI-R--2727--SE Programme manager’s remarks The Asia Security Studies programme at the Swedish Defence Research Agency’s Department of Defence Analysis conducts research and policy relevant analysis on defence and security related issues. Its primary focus is on East and South Asia as well as the Persian Gulf region. The programme strikes a balance between studying issues directly affecting Swedish foreign and defence policy as well as research on topics with wider regional and global implications. The Asia Security Studies programme is mainly financed by the Swedish Ministry of Defence but research is also conducted for other ministries and agencies in Sweden and abroad. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on the Pakistani border to Afghanistan have been in the international limelight since the U.S. ousting of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan 2001. As a safe haven for al-Qaeda fugitives and staging area for Taliban forces, it has been a contentious issue both in and outside of Pakistan. Not only have developments in FATA come to influence domestic Pakistani policy. It is also inseparable from the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan. But despite international attention little has been written about the local power structures and how militancy in FATA is driven and sustained. Outside of Pakistan, the political, constitutional and legal issues and disputes, key to making FATA what it is today, are not widely known. The Swedish Defence Research Agency and the Pakistan-based Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) have undertaken to make a detailed study of FATA. We extend a special thanks to the CRSS fellows for making this study possible. We also extend our thanks to Mr. Syed Adnan Ali Shah Bukhari at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore for his detailed comments on the report. John Rydqvist Programme manager Asia Security Studies Programme Programme webpage: www.foi.se/asia 5 FOI-R--2727--SE Contents Programme manager’s remarks .................................................................. 5 Abbreviations................................................................................................. 9 1 Purpose of study and notes on method ......................................... 11 1.1 Purpose of study ........................................................................................11 1.2 Notes on method and outline of the report.................................................11 2 Background ....................................................................................... 13 3 What is FATA?................................................................................... 23 3.1 Historical Overview...................................................................................25 3.2 FATA: Legal Status, Geography and Governance ....................................27 3.2.1 Militias and Rifles......................................................................32 3.2.2 Social System ............................................................................33 3.3 FATA – Profile of the Agencies ................................................................36 4 Tribal lands: Cauldron of militarism ............................................... 43 4.1 Local Implications of the Militancy on a Regional Level..........................56 5 The role of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) – Scapegoat or Culprit ............................................................................................ 73 6 Al-Qaeda’s Uzbek and Arab components....................................... 79 6.1 The “Al-Qaedaisation” of Pakistan............................................................82 7 Conclusion......................................................................................... 91 Appendix 1. .................................................................................................. 97 Profiles of Militants...................................................................................................97 Profiles of Afghan Militants ....................................................................................118 Appendix 2. CRSS Survey of FATA......................................................... 127 SURVEY.................................................................................................................127 Tables .................................................................................................................127 8 Terminology..................................................................................... 131 6 FOI-R--2727--SE Maps Map 1: Pakistan ...........................................................................................................8 Map 2: Agencies of FATA and the eastern Pak-Afghan border ...............................35 Tables Table 1.: Is it fair to blow up CD shops? .................................................................127 Table 2.: Should girls be educated? .........................................................................127