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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. ѮF.VTMJN8PSME "/(&-.3"#"4" ] $)&3:-#&/"3% ] 1&5&3$)"-, $$)3*45*/&'"*3 ] 5)&0%03&,"3"4*, 30--*&-"- ] *"/-&44&3 ] %"7*%5)"-&3 0REPAREDFORTHE5NITED3TATES!IR&ORCE !PPROVEDFORPUBLICRELEASEDISTRIBUTIONUNLIMITED The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Muslim world after 9/11 / Angel M. Rabasa ... [et al.]. p. cm. “MG-246.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3534-7 (paperback : alk. paper) ISBN 0-8330-3712-9 (clothbound) 1. Islamic countries—Relations—United States. 2. United States—Relations— Islamic countries. 3. September 11 Terrorist Attacks, 2001—Influence. 4. Islam and politics—Islamic countries. 5. Islamic fundamentalism. 6. National security—United States. I. Rabasa, Angel. DS35.74.U6M875 2004 327.73017'67'090511—dc22 2004021173 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Pete Soriano © Copyright 2004 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2004 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface The tectonic events of the past three years—September 11 and Operation Enduring Freedom, the global war on terrorism, and the war in Iraq and its aftermath—have dramatically affected the Muslim world and attitudes toward the United States. However, some of the dynamics that are influencing the environment in Muslim countries are also the product of trends that have been at work for many decades. The continuation of these trends will make management of the security environment in the Muslim world more difficult in years to come and could increase the demands on U.S. political and military resources. Consequently, it is important to develop a shaping strategy toward the Muslim world that will help to ameliorate the conditions that produce religious and political extremism and anti-U.S. attitudes. This RAND Corporation study has several purposes: (1) to develop a typology of ideological tendencies in the different regions of the Muslim world, in order to identify the sectors with which the United States can find common ground to pro- mote democracy and stability and counter the influence of extremist and violent groups; (2) to identify the factors that produce religious extremism and violence; (3) to identify the key cleavages and fault lines among sectarian, ethnic, regional, and national lines and to assess how these cleavages generate challenges and opportunities for the United States; and (4) to identify possible strategies and sets of political and military options to help the United States meet challenges and exploit opportunities presented by changed conditions in the Muslim world. Research on this project was completed in the fall of 2003. To the extent possible, the text has been updated to reflect many of the developments that have occurred since that time. This study builds on previous RAND Project AIR FORCE work on counter- terrorism: • Nora Bensahel, The Counterterror Coalitions: Cooperation with Europe, NATO, and the European Union (MR-1746-AF, 2003) • Kim Cragin and Sara Daly, The Dynamic Terrorist Threat: An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World (MR-1782-AF, 2003) iii iv The Muslim World After 9/11 • David A. Ochmanek, Military Operations Against Terrorist Groups Abroad: Im- plications for the United States Air Force (MR-1738-AF, 2003). It also builds on other RAND Corporation regional security studies: • Cheryl Benard, Civil Democratic Islam (MR-1716-CMEPP, 2003) • Nora Bensahel and Daniel Byman, eds., The Future Security Environment in the Middle East: Conflict, Stability, and Political Change (MR-1640-AF, 2004) • Angel Rabasa and Peter Chalk, Indonesia’s Transformation and the Stability of Southeast Asia (MR-1344-AF, 2001). This research was conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE under the sponsorship of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO). This report should be of value to the national security community and interested members of the general public, especially those with an interest in U.S. relations with the countries of the Muslim world and in developments in those countries. Research for this project was completed in Sep- tember 2003. Comments are welcome and should be sent to the project leader, Dr. Angel Rabasa, or the acting RAND Project AIR FORCE Program Director for Strategy and Doctrine, Dr. Alan Vick. Dr. Angel M. Rabasa Dr. Alan Vick RAND Corporation RAND Corporation 1200 South Hayes Street 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington, VA 22202 Arlington, VA 22202 (703) 413-1100 x5268 703) 413-1100 x5253 [email protected] [email protected] RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our website at http://www.rand.org/paf. Contents Preface .......................................................................iii Figures......................................................................xiii Tables ...................................................................... xv Summary................................................................... xvii Acknowledgments ........................................................... xxix Abbreviations ............................................................... xxxi Glossary.................................................................. xxxvii Overview Angel M. Rabasa .................................................... 1 Introduction .................................................................. 1 Threats and Challenges ......................................................... 2 Balancing Democracy and Stability ............................................. 3 The War of Ideas ............................................................ 4 Muslims and “Islamic” Movements ............................................... 5 The Diversity of Religious Interpretation in the Muslim World ....................... 5 The Diversity of Fundamentalists.............................................. 14 Other Interpretations of Islam ................................................ 21 Religion, Politics, and the State ................................................. 25 The Islamic State ........................................................... 26 Islamic Law ................................................................ 27 The Sunni-Shi’a Divide........................................................ 28 The Arab and the Non-Arab Muslim Worlds...................................... 31 Nation-States, Tribes, and Clans ................................................ 34 Sources of Islamic Radicalism................................................... 36 Conditions................................................................