A rapid assessment of the status and distribution of Loxodonta cyclotis in South East Cameroon By Stephanie Brittain Supervised by: Dr Marcus Rowcliffe & Paul DeOrnellas September 2013 A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Master of Science and the Diploma of the Imperial College London DECLARATION OF OWN WORK I declare that this thesis, “A rapid assessment of the status and distribution of Loxodonta cyclotis in South East Cameroon,” is entirely my own work, and that where material could be construed as the work of others, it is fully cited and referenced, and/or with appropriate acknowledgement given. Signature Name of student Stephanie Brittain Name of Supervisor(s) Dr. Marcus Rowcliffe, Paul DeOrnellas 2 CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................... 6 1.1 Problem statement ............................................................................................................ 6 1.2 Study aim and research objective ...................................................................................... 7 2 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................ 8 2.1 Elephant population status assessment............................................................................. 8 2.2 Occupancy modelling ....................................................................................................... 10 2.3 Detection/non-detection surveys and imperfect detection ............................................ 10 2.4 Likelihood-based occupancy model ................................................................................. 11 2.4.1 Assumptions of the model ....................................................................................... 11 2.5 Interview based occupancy analysis ................................................................................ 12 2.6 Eastern Region of Cameroon ........................................................................................... 13 2.7 The Forest Elephant: Loxodonta africana cyclotis ........................................................... 14 2.8 Threats.............................................................................................................................. 16 2.9 Human-elephant conflict ................................................................................................. 16 2.10 Illegal killing ...................................................................................................................... 17 2.11 Barriers to conservation action ........................................................................................ 17 3 METHODS ................................................................................................................................. 19 3.1 Overview .......................................................................................................................... 19 3.2 Study region ..................................................................................................................... 21 3.3 Target groups structure.................................................................................................... 21 3.4 Location Selection ............................................................................................................ 22 3.5 Data collection.................................................................................................................. 23 3.5.1 Research Team ......................................................................................................... 23 3.5.2 Semi-structured interviews ...................................................................................... 23 3.5.3 Informal interviews .................................................................................................. 25 3.5.4 Pilot study ................................................................................................................. 26 3 3.5.5 Respondent selection ............................................................................................... 27 3.5.6 Sample size ............................................................................................................... 29 3.5.7 Ethics ........................................................................................................................ 29 3.6 Data analysis ..................................................................................................................... 29 3.6.1 Arc GIS ...................................................................................................................... 29 3.6.2 Data preparation & covariate selection ................................................................... 30 3.6.3 Occupancy analysis................................................................................................... 31 3.6.4 Geographical variation in perceptions and threats .................................................. 32 3.6.5 Qualitative analysis .................................................................................................. 32 4 RESULTS .................................................................................................................................... 33 4.1 Survey summary ............................................................................................................... 33 4.2 Detection, non-detection and initial exploration of the data .......................................... 34 4.3 Occupancy modelling ....................................................................................................... 35 4.3.1 Fixed model .............................................................................................................. 35 4.3.2 Covariate correlation tests ....................................................................................... 35 4.3.3 Covariate model ....................................................................................................... 35 4.3.4 Model ranking .......................................................................................................... 37 4.3.5 Analysis of the best fit model ................................................................................... 38 4.4 Occupancy and distribution ............................................................................................. 39 4.5 Perceived abundance ....................................................................................................... 41 4.6 Perceived population change ........................................................................................... 43 4.7 Threats.............................................................................................................................. 44 4.7.1 Roads ........................................................................................................................ 44 4.7.2 Bush meat ................................................................................................................. 45 4.7.3 Ivory .......................................................................................................................... 46 4.7.4 Timber exploitation .................................................................................................. 47 4.8 Qualitative data ................................................................................................................ 47 4.8.1 Poaching ................................................................................................................... 47 4 5 DISCUSSION .............................................................................................................................. 51 5.1 Summary of key findings; ................................................................................................. 51 5.2 To determine the distribution, occupancy and status of forest elephants in the eastern region of Cameroon ..................................................................................................................... 51 5.3 Gain a deeper understanding of the threats to elephants .............................................. 54 5.4 Increase understanding on people’s perceptions towards elephants ............................. 55 5.5 Assess the reliability and suitability of this method ........................................................ 55 5.6 Reliability & Limitations ................................................................................................... 56 5.6.1 Survey effort ............................................................................................................. 56 5.6.2 Interview reliability .................................................................................................. 56 5.6.3 Occupancy and home range ..................................................................................... 57 5.6.4 Heterogeneity........................................................................................................... 57 5.7 Recommendations for future action ................................................................................ 58 6 APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................. 66 6.1 Appendix 1: Full list of interviews collected