Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Department of Transportation and Communications (DOTC) The Project for Capacity Development on Transportation Planning and Database Management in the Republic of the Philippines MMUTIS Update and Enhancement Project (MUCEP) Manual vol. 2 Travel Demand Forecasting December 2015 ALMEC Corporation Oriental Consultants Global Co., Ltd TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1 Background .................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.2 Objectives ..................................................................................................................... 1-1 1.3 Structure of the Manual ................................................................................................ 1-2 1.4 How to use this manual ................................................................................................ 1-2 2 KEY CONCEPTS ....................................................................................................................... 2-1 3 DATABASE DEVELOPMENT ................................................................................................. 3-1 4 OVERVIEW OF THE FOUR STEP MODEL ........................................................................... 4-1 5 TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL FOR METRO MANILA ............................................................ 5-1 5.1 Zoning System ............................................................................................................. 5-1 5.2 Socio-economic Framework ......................................................................................... 5-3 5.3 Road Network ............................................................................................................... 5-4 5.4 Trip Generation Model ................................................................................................ 5-11 5.5 Trip Distribution Model ................................................................................................ 5-11 5.6 Modal Split Model ....................................................................................................... 5-12 5.7 Highway Assignment .................................................................................................. 5-13 5.8 Origin–Destinationi Data ............................................................................................ 5-13 5.9 Highway Assignment Result ....................................................................................... 5-14 6 SKETCH PLANNING ................................................................................................................ 6-1 6.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................. 6-1 6.2 Sample Sketch Planning Model .................................................................................... 6-2 APPENDICES Appendix A: Description of the Zoning System Appendix B: Population Trends in MUCEP Area Appendix C: Estimated Car Ownership LIST OF TABLES Table 5.1 Traffic Analysis Zones ............................................................................................... 5-1 Table 5.2 Increase Ratios of GRDP/Capita .............................................................................. 5-3 Table 5.3 Schedule of the Road Survey ................................................................................... 5-5 Table 5.4 Summary of the Updated Road Links ....................................................................... 5-5 Table 5.5 Road Capacity and Maximum Speed by Road Category ......................................... 5-6 Table 5.6 Parameters for Public Modes ................................................................................... 5-6 Table 5.7 Projects Included in the Roadmap for Metro Manila and Surrounding Areas ........... 5-7 Table 5.8 Link Information ........................................................................................................ 5-9 Table 5.9 Link Type (USERFLAG5) for Road Link ................................................................... 5-9 Table 5.10 Link Type (USERFLAG5) for Rail Link .................................................................... 5-10 Table 5.11 Trip Generation and Attraction Models ................................................................... 5-11 Table 5.12 Modal Split Model ................................................................................................... 5-12 Table 5.13 Modal Split Parameters between Private and Public Modes .................................. 5-12 Table 5.14 Total Trips by Mode ................................................................................................ 5-13 Table 6.1 Description of Zoning System for General Santos City............................................. 6-3 Table 6.2 Length of Roads in General Santos City by Barangay ............................................. 6-5 Table 6.3 Passenger Car Equivalent Factors ........................................................................... 6-6 Table 6.4 Traffic Volume along National Highways in General Santos City .............................. 6-7 Table 6.5 Traffic Growth Rate in Region XII ............................................................................. 6-7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Car–Public Transportation Vicious Cycle .................................................................. 2-2 Figure 2.2 Land Use and Transportation Interaction .................................................................. 2-2 Figure 2.3 Changes in the Transportation System..................................................................... 2-3 Figure 2.4 Changes in the Land Use System ............................................................................ 2-3 Figure 2.5 Definition of a Trip .................................................................................................... 2-5 Figure 2.6 Single Trip Entry ....................................................................................................... 2-5 Figure 2.7 Constructing an OD Table ........................................................................................ 2-6 Figure 3.1 Zoning System ......................................................................................................... 3-2 Figure 3.2 Household Information Survey Form ........................................................................ 3-3 Figure 3.3 Member Information Survey Form ............................................................................ 3-4 Figure 3.4 Trip Information Survey Form ................................................................................... 3-5 Figure 3.5 Trade-off between Sample Size and Cost ................................................................ 3-6 Figure 3.6 Sample Road Network .............................................................................................. 3-8 Figure 4.1 Four-Step Model ....................................................................................................... 4-1 Figure 4.2 Objectives of the Four-Step Model ........................................................................... 4-1 Figure 4.3 Trip Generation ......................................................................................................... 4-2 Figure 4.4 Sample Trip Generation Computation ...................................................................... 4-2 Figure 4.5 Trip Distribution ........................................................................................................ 4-3 Figure 4.6 Modal Split ................................................................................................................ 4-3 Figure 4.7 Choice Model ........................................................................................................... 4-4 Figure 4.8 Traffic Assignment .................................................................................................... 4-5 Figure 5.1 Traffic Analysis Zones within NCR ............................................................................ 5-1 Figure 5.2 Traffic Analysis Zones in adjacent Provinces ............................................................ 5-2 Figure 5.3 Population Trends in MUCEP Area ........................................................................... 5-3 Figure 5.4 Interface of the BlackVue Software .......................................................................... 5-4 Figure 5.5 2015 Network ........................................................................................................... 5-6 Figure 5.6 2025 Network ........................................................................................................... 5-8 Figure 5.7 2035 Network ........................................................................................................... 5-8 Figure 5.8 Transit Data ............................................................................................................ 5-10 Figure 5.9 QV Function ........................................................................................................... 5-13 Figure 5.10 Highway Assignment Results for 2014 ................................................................... 5-14 Figure 6.1 Sketch Planning Model Flow 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