Hurontario LRT Benefits Metrolinx Case Analysis Report Our ref: 22861201 March 2016 Client ref: Hurontario LRT Benefits Metrolinx Case Analysis Report Our ref: 22861201 March 2016 Client ref: Prepared by: Prepared for: Steer Davies Gleave Metrolinx 1500-330 Bay St 97 Front Street West, Toronto, ON, M5H 2S8 Toronto, ON Canada M5J 1E6 +1 (647) 260 4860 na.steerdaviesgleave.com Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material for Metrolinx. This material may only be used within the context and scope for which Steer Davies Gleave has prepared it and may not be relied upon in part or whole by any third party or be used for any other purpose. Any person choosing to use any part of this material without the express and written permission of Steer Davies Gleave shall be deemed to confirm their agreement to indemnify Steer Davies Gleave for all loss or damage resulting therefrom. Steer Davies Gleave has prepared this material using professional practices and procedures using information available to it at the time and as such any new information could alter the validity of the results and conclusions made. Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................. i Overview ...............................................................................................................................................i 1 Project Context ........................................................................................................................ 1 Background ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Existing Transit Services ...................................................................................................................... 3 Existing Road Context ......................................................................................................................... 9 Population and Employment Growth ............................................................................................... 10 Benefits Case .................................................................................................................................... 13 2 Problem Statement and Vision................................................................................................ 14 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 14 Policy Framework ............................................................................................................................. 15 Policy Summary ................................................................................................................................ 15 Project Vision .................................................................................................................................... 15 3 Project Overview .................................................................................................................... 18 Project Proposal ................................................................................................................................ 18 Transit Network Assumptions .......................................................................................................... 22 Highway Network Assumptions ........................................................................................................ 24 Ridership Forecasts ........................................................................................................................... 24 Key Modelling Assumptions ............................................................................................................. 25 Ridership Forecasts ........................................................................................................................... 25 Evaluation Framework and Assumptions ......................................................................................... 27 Key Evaluation Assumptions ............................................................................................................. 28 4 Strategic Case ......................................................................................................................... 30 Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 30 Project Development ........................................................................................................................ 30 Policy Support ................................................................................................................................... 30 Existing and Future Conditions ......................................................................................................... 31 March 2016 Interdependencies with other projects ............................................................................................ 31 Stakeholder Involvement.................................................................................................................. 31 Definition of Project ‘Success’ .......................................................................................................... 32 Incremental Transit Ridership .......................................................................................................... 32 Accessibility....................................................................................................................................... 33 Mode Share ...................................................................................................................................... 35 Integration with other transportation modes .................................................................................. 35 Land Use Shaping .............................................................................................................................. 36 Goods Movement Impacts ............................................................................................................... 37 Road Network Impacts ..................................................................................................................... 38 Emissions .......................................................................................................................................... 38 5 Financial Case ......................................................................................................................... 41 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 41 Capital Costs ..................................................................................................................................... 41 Incremental Operating and Maintenance Costs ............................................................................... 43 Incremental Revenues ...................................................................................................................... 44 Affordability and Financial Risks ....................................................................................................... 45 6 Economic Case........................................................................................................................ 46 Key inputs and assumptions ............................................................................................................. 46 Transit User Benefits ........................................................................................................................ 46 Auto User Benefits ............................................................................................................................ 47 Auto Safety Benefits ......................................................................................................................... 48 GHG Emission Benefits and Costs ..................................................................................................... 49 Health ............................................................................................................................................... 49 Safety and Security ........................................................................................................................... 50 Urban Realm ..................................................................................................................................... 53 Net Present Value ............................................................................................................................. 58 Economic Impacts of HLRT ............................................................................................................... 60 7 Deliverability and Operations Case ......................................................................................... 63 March 2016 Overview ........................................................................................................................................... 63 Impacts during Construction ............................................................................................................ 63 Constructability ................................................................................................................................