MORAY SAFER & STRONGER The Gazetteer for Scotland, 1995-2007 Used with permission from The Gazetteer for Scotland at http://www.geo.ed.ac.uk/scotgaz/ STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT 2009/10 1 Contents Acknowledgements......................................................................................... 5 1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 6 2 Methodology .............................................................................................. 8 3 Budget cuts ............................................................................................... 9 4 A Profile of Moray ................................................................................... 10 4.1 Population .......................................................................................................... 10 4.2 Prosperity ........................................................................................................... 11 4.3 Health ................................................................................................................. 12 4.4 Education ........................................................................................................... 12 4.4.1 Young People ............................................................................................... 12 4.4.2 Adult Education ............................................................................................ 14 4.5 Housing .............................................................................................................. 14 4.6 Recorded crime in Moray .................................................................................. 15 5 Safer Communities ................................................................................. 16 5.1 Introduction........................................................................................................ 16 5.2 Public Protection ............................................................................................... 16 5.2.1 Sex Offenders .............................................................................................. 17 5.2.2 Adult Support and Protection ........................................................................ 19 5.2.3 Child Protection ............................................................................................ 20 5.3 Violence .............................................................................................................. 23 5.3.1 Alcohol-related Violence ............................................................................... 24 5.3.2 Drug-related Violence ................................................................................... 26 5.3.3 Domestic abuse ............................................................................................ 26 5.4 Road Safety ........................................................................................................ 28 5.4.1 Moray Road Safety stats .............................................................................. 28 5.4.2 Road Safety Education and Campaigns ....................................................... 31 5.5 Fire Safety .......................................................................................................... 34 5.5.1 Fires ............................................................................................................. 35 5.5.2 Prevention & Education ................................................................................ 36 5.6 Home Safety ....................................................................................................... 39 5.6.1 Under 5s ....................................................................................................... 39 5.6.2 Older People ................................................................................................ 41 5.6.3 Falls Prevention ............................................................................................ 42 5.7 Antisocial Behaviour ......................................................................................... 44 5.7.1 ASB Incidents ............................................................................................... 45 5.7.2 Safer Communities Survey 2009 .................................................................. 46 5.7.3 Alcohol-related Antisocial Behaviour ............................................................ 47 5.7.4 Tackling Antisocial Behaviour ....................................................................... 48 5.7.5 Young Offenders .......................................................................................... 50 2 6 Stronger Communities ........................................................................... 52 6.1 Housing .............................................................................................................. 52 6.1.1 Moray‟s Housing Market ............................................................................... 52 6.1.2 Moray‟s Economy ......................................................................................... 57 6.1.3 Household trends ......................................................................................... 59 6.2 Homelessness ................................................................................................... 60 6.2.1 The Legislative and Policy Agenda since 2003 ............................................ 60 6.2.2 Homelessness in Moray ............................................................................... 60 6.2.3 Challenges ................................................................................................... 62 6.3 Fuel Poverty ....................................................................................................... 63 6.3.1 Measuring fuel poverty ................................................................................. 63 6.3.2 Risk Factors ................................................................................................. 64 6.3.3 Property Condition and Fuel Efficiency......................................................... 64 6.4 Social Inclusion – Tackling Inequalities .......................................................... 67 6.4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 67 6.4.2 Inequalities in Moray..................................................................................... 68 6.4.3 Types of Deprivation..................................................................................... 85 6.4.4 Tackling Inequalities in Moray ...................................................................... 89 6.5 Community Engagement .................................................................................. 97 6.5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 97 6.5.2 National Standards for Community Engagement ......................................... 97 6.5.3 Methods of Involvement ............................................................................... 98 6.5.4 Community Engagement in Moray ............................................................... 99 6.5.5 Summary .................................................................................................... 105 6.6 Emergency Planning and Response .............................................................. 106 6.6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 106 6.6.2 Moray Emergency Planning & Response ................................................... 108 6.6.3 Voluntary Organisations involved in Emergency Response ....................... 111 7 Demographic and Social Trend Analysis ........................................... 113 7.1 Demographic Considerations ......................................................................... 113 7.1.1 Increasing Older Population & Decreasing Working Age Population ......... 113 7.1.2 RAF changes .............................................................................................. 114 7.1.3 Changing Migrant population ...................................................................... 115 7.1.4 Projected increase in single person households ........................................ 116 7.1.5 Rising Unemployment ................................................................................ 117 7.2 Social Considerations ..................................................................................... 118 7.2.1 Seasonal Effects ........................................................................................ 118 7.2.2 Tourism ...................................................................................................... 118 7.2.3 Social Events .............................................................................................. 119 7.2.4 RAF Tours .................................................................................................. 119 8 PESTELO Analysis................................................................................ 120 9 Recommendations ................................................................................ 130 3 9.1 Public Protection ............................................................................................. 130 9.2 Violence ...........................................................................................................