C O R P O R A T I O N SHERRILL LINGEL, JEFF HAGEN, ERIC HASTINGS, MARY LEE, MATTHEW SARGENT, MATTHEW WALSH, LI ANG ZHANG, DAVID BLANCETT Joint All-Domain Command and Control for Modern Warfare An Analytic Framework for Identifying and Developing Artificial Intelligence Applications For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR4408z1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0514-2 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. 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Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface In 2019, Air Combat Command Directorate of Plans, Programs and Requirements (A5/8/9) asked RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF) to examine and recommend opportunities for applying artificial intelligence (AI) and, more broadly, automation to deliberate planning for joint all- domain command and control (JADC2). JADC2 as envisioned integrates the planning, tasking, and assessments of operations across the domains of space, information, cyber, air, land, and sea. The Air Operations Center (AOC) is the primary operational-level central command and control (C2) node for the U.S. Air Force today. Notwithstanding its historical effectiveness, the AOC construct has been recently challenged for myriad reasons. First, AOC systems and personnel are typically located at a forward-deployed, centralized facility. This constitutes a significant vulnerability and single point of failure. Second, many AOC information systems date back to the inception of the AOC in about 2000. The cancellation of the AOC 10.2 modernization effort has delayed the delivery of critical hardware and software upgrades to the AOC. Third, the growing emphasis on improved cyber and space integration has placed new functional and technical demands on the AOC and increased interest in multidomain operations. Fourth and finally, numerous breakthroughs have occurred in the fields of AI and machine learning (ML). Emerging technologies in these areas can enable new capabilities or, alternatively, can constitute new threats. Thus, this research on AI applications for JADC2 was conducted in PAF’s Force Modernization program in order to address the question of how the Air Force can incorporate AI/ML and automation to achieve JADC2. A companion volume,1 not available to the general public, provides technical details, information about the assessment process, and descriptions of the vignettes. This report may be of interest to U.S. Department of Defense leaders and stakeholders in AI and/or C2 and to congressional audiences with an interest in AI and enabling the U.S. great power competition. The research reported here was commissioned by Air Combat Command A5/8/9 and conducted within the Force Modernization and Employment Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2019 project, AI Applications for JADC2. 1 Sherrill Lingel, Jeff Hagen, Eric Hastings, Mary Lee, Matthew Sargent, Matthew Walsh, Li Ang Zhang, Dave Blancett, Edward Geist, and Liam Regan, Joint All-Domain Command and Control for Modern Warfare: Technical Analysis and Supporting Material, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, 2020, Not available to the general public. iii RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine; Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource Management. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf/ This report documents work originally shared with the U.S. Air Force in September 2019. The draft report, also issued in September 2019, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and U.S. Air Force subject-matter experts. iv Contents Preface ........................................................................................................................................... iii Figures ............................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ........................................................................................................................................... vii Summary ...................................................................................................................................... viii Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................... xi Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... xii 1. Challenges of Implementing Joint All-Domain Command and Control Within the U.S. Air Force’s Current Operational Level Construct ........................................... 1 Current Operational-Level Command and Control Challenges ................................................................ 1 Differences Across Air Operations Centers .............................................................................................. 5 Challenges in Emergence of Near-Peer Threat Environments ................................................................. 6 Central Multidomain Operational Challenges for AOCs .......................................................................... 7 Approach and Organization of This Report .............................................................................................. 9 2. Command and Control Modernization ...................................................................................... 12 Modernization of the Air Operations Center in the Direction of Multidomain ...................................... 12 3. Artificial Intelligence Opportunities for Future Multidomain Operations ................................ 17 The Enabling Role of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning ..................................................... 17 Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses Vignette ........................................................................................ 19 Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief Vignette .......................................................................... 23 Proliferated ISR Vignette ........................................................................................................................ 26 Common Themes Across the Three Vignettes ........................................................................................ 29 Joint All-Domain Common Operational Picture ..................................................................................... 32 Joint All-Domain Operational Assessment ............................................................................................. 32 Summary of Vignette-Driven Approach ................................................................................................. 33 4. Artificial Intelligence Ecosystem for Joint All-Domain Command and Control ...................... 34 Commercial Best Practices ..................................................................................................................... 35 The Developing U.S. Department of Defense Artificial Intelligence Ecosystem ................................... 41 Personnel Considerations ........................................................................................................................ 44 5. Research Conclusions and Recommendations .......................................................................... 46 Issues ....................................................................................................................................................... 46 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................. 46 Recommendations ................................................................................................................................... 50 References ....................................................................................................................................