ICEBERGS DEAD AHEAD: ANTICIPATING INCREASED MARITIME SHIPPING IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC by ALAN JON GROVE B.A., University of Cincinnati, 2007 M.A., University of Cincinnati, 2009 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS in FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Geography) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) February 2017 © Alan Jon Grove, 2017 Abstract Shipping is a fundamental feature of life in the Canadian North. Climate change is opening waterways between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, introducing the possibility of new vessels plying these waters as a transitory space. Furthermore, community growth and economic development activities have increased domestic maritime traffic in the region as well. The regulation and support of shipping in the region has come under question as sea ice retreat reveals open waters. This thesis examines the question of how are the present and the prospective future of shipping in the Canadian Arctic managed and governed. I situate my work in the fields of critical polar studies, anticipatory geographies, and Arctic geopolitics. I use expert interviews with policy makers in Transport Canada, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Environment Canada, the Canadian Ice Service, the Government of Nunavut’s Department of Economic Development and Transportation, along with perspectives from officials at the World Wildlife Fund and the Centre for the North to answer these questions. I argue that the perception and anticipation of a well–managed and well–supported maritime space guides the actions of Canadian officials. Officials view shipping as a holistic activity where meaningful government intervention is limited. I further argue that the logic of prevention is most useful in understanding policy makers’ activities in this forum, and the effective presence in the region through management and support of shipping demonstrates the Canadian state’s sovereignty. Canada is at the forefront of regulations, support, and techniques to manage and support shipping in the Arctic, offering a perspective on present shipping, and how anticipating future shipping has shaped actions of the domestic agencies, the Arctic Council, and the International Maritime Organization. ii Preface This thesis is original, unpublished, independent work by the author, A. Grove. The fieldwork interviews reported throughout the thesis were covered by the UBC Behavioral Research Ethics Board certificate number H12-00198. The research was supported financially by the Canadian Embassy in Washington DC’s Understanding Canada Doctoral Research Grant. Travel assistance was graciously provided by the Conference Board of Canada’s Centre for the North. iii Table of Contents Abstract.......................................................................................................................................... ii! Preface...........................................................................................................................................iii! Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................... iv! List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ vi! List of Figures.............................................................................................................................. vii! Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................viii! Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1! 1.1 Context .................................................................................................................................. 1! 1.2 Research question and objectives ....................................................................................... 4! 1.3 Anticipatory futures........................................................................................................... 10! 1.3.1 Anticipation.................................................................................................................... 11! 1.3.2 Anticipatory practices .................................................................................................... 14! 1.4 Arctic geopolitics................................................................................................................ 25! 1.4.1 Critical polar studies and Arctic geopolitics.................................................................. 25! 1.4.2 States, territoriality and effective sovereignty ............................................................... 29! 1.4.3 Sovereignty in the Canadian Arctic ............................................................................... 34! 1.4.3 Governance .................................................................................................................... 37! 1.5 Policy studies and northern regions ................................................................................. 40! 1.6 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 45! 1.7 Chapter outline................................................................................................................... 53! Chapter 2: The difference between a good ship and a bad ship: shipping in the North...... 58! 2.1 Vessels in the Arctic ........................................................................................................... 59! 2.2 Regulations in the Canadian North.................................................................................. 65! 2.2.1 Arctic Waters Pollution Prevention Act ........................................................................ 65! 2.2.2 Arctic Shipping Pollution Prevention Regulations........................................................ 68! 2.2.3 Zone/Date System.......................................................................................................... 70! 2.2.4 Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System.............................................................................. 72! 2.3 Shipping infrastructure in the North ............................................................................... 78! 2.3.1 Nautical charts ............................................................................................................... 78! 2.3.2 Ice reports....................................................................................................................... 79! 2.3.3 Weather and wave information...................................................................................... 80! 2.3.4 Marine aids to navigation............................................................................................... 82! 2.3.5 Crew training ................................................................................................................. 82! 2.3.6 Ports ............................................................................................................................... 83! 2.3.7 Places of refuge.............................................................................................................. 84! 2.4 Icebreakers ......................................................................................................................... 85! 2.4 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 88! Chapter 3: Maritime support and infrastructure in the Canadian Arctic............................ 90! 3.1 Navigation infrastructure: a beacon of light ................................................................... 91! 3.1.1 Navigation services........................................................................................................ 92! iv 3.1.2 Navigation infrastructure and effective state presence .................................................. 97! 3.2 Weather and ice................................................................................................................ 105! 3.2.1 Weather and ice information and the state’s effective presence.................................. 106! 3.2.2 Effective presence and the Canadian Ice Service ........................................................ 111! 3.2.3 Canadian Ice Service and changing demands.............................................................. 117! 3.3 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 122! Chapter 4: Governance and regulations................................................................................. 125! 4.1 Canada’s regulations ....................................................................................................... 127! 4.1.1 Arctic Waters Pollution Prevention Act ...................................................................... 128! 4.1.2 Arctic Shipping Pollution Prevention Regulations...................................................... 136! 4.2 Applying regulations to vessels ....................................................................................... 141! 4.3 International regulations: the IMO’s guidelines and Polar Code ............................... 148! 4.4 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................