Feeding 9 billion The contribution of new genetic technologies to global food production Peter Evans David Bennett and Richard Jennings Feeding 9 billion The contribution of new genetic technologies to global food production Peter Evans David Bennett and Richard Jennings Feeding 9 billion The contribution of new genetic technologies to global food production Lead editor: Peter Evans Editors: Dr David Bennett and Dr Richard C. Jennings Feeding 9 billion is based on Successful Agricultural ISBN 978-0-9563387-8-5 Innovation in Emerging Economies: New Genetic Technologies for Global Food Production published by Published in 2014 by Banson, 27 Devonshire Road, Cambridge University Press in 2013, with the publisher’s Cambridge CB1 2BH, UK permission. © Banson 2014 Contributors to Successful Agricultural Innovation in Emerging Economies: New Genetic Technologies for This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory Global Food Production include: Dr Alfredo Aguilar; exception and to the provisions of relevant collective Professor Klaus Ammann; Dr Tina Barsby; Professor Sir licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may David Baulcombe FRS; Dr Roger Beachy; Jack Bobo; take place without the written permission of Banson. Graham Brookes; Samuel Burckhardt; Dr Claudia Canales Banson has no responsibility for the persistence or Holzeis; Mark F. Cantley; Dr Eugenio J. Cap; Dr Danuta accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet Cichocka; Professor Sir Gordon Conway FRS; Dr Adrian websites referred to in this publication, and does not Dubock; Professor Jim M. Dunwell; Dr Ioannis Economidis; guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will Professor George Gaskell; Professor Ian Graham; Dr Julian remain, accurate or appropriate. Gray; Professor Jonathan Gressel; Professor Sir Brian Heap CBE FRS; T.J.V. Higgins; Jens Högel; Professor Drew L. The opinions expressed in this publication do not Kershen; Professor Christopher J. Leaver CBE FRS FRSE; necessarily reflect the views of the editors, the John Professor Lu Bao-rong; Dr Diran Makinde; Carel du Templeton Foundation or Banson. Marchie Sarvaas; Nathalie Moll; Professor Larry Murdock; Dr Martin Porter; Tim Radford; Professor Wayne Powell; Citation: Evans, P., Bennett, D. and Jennings, R.C. (eds) 2014. Professor Chavali Kameswara Rao; Professor Pamela Feeding 9 Billion. Banson. Ronald; Piet Schenkelaars; Idah Sithole-Niang; Dr Sally Stares; Dr Eduardo J. Trigo; Dr Piero Venturi; Katy Wilson. Text editors: Helen de Mattos, Bart Ullstein Design and layout: Banson This publication was made possible through the support Cover image: Romastudio/Dreamstime.com of grants from the John Templeton Foundation. Print: The Lavenham Press, UK Peter Evans has more than 30 years He has a PhD in biochemical genetics Dr Richard C. Jennings is an Affiliated experience hosting a weekly science and an MA in science policy studies Research Scholar at the University magazine programme for BBC Radio 4, with long-term experience of the of Cambridge, UK. His research authored 11 books, been commissioning relations between science, industry, interests are in the ethics of science editor for two major publishing houses government, education, law, the public and technology. He pioneered the and given media and communications and the media. He works with the university’s teaching of ethics in training to members of many scientific European Commission, government science and continues to run graduate research organisations. departments, companies, universities, ethics workshops. He has developed, public-interest organisations and the with others, a framework for Dr David Bennett is a Senior Member of media, and has lived in the UK, USA, assessing ethical issues in new St Edmund’s College, Cambridge, UK. Australia and The Netherlands. technologies. Feeding 9 billion FOREWORD orld population is forecast to grow from 7 billion to 9 billion by 2050. One in eight people – some 827 million – are already hungry, and food Wproduction must increase by 70–100 per cent during this period. No single solution will resolve the problem, but the new genetic technologies of plant breeding developed during the last 30 years can do much to increase agricultural efficiencies and save people from hunger in a sustainable manner, particularly in African nations where the need is greatest. Advanced molecular plant breeding based on genomics, marker-assisted screening, pheno type analysis, computer modelling and, when necessary, genetic modification (GM), have greatly accelerated the breeding process. Substantial efforts in basic scientific research and agricultural practice over the last 30 years have yielded dramatic results, par ticularly in North America, South America and a number of other emerging economies, as the new technologies have spread worldwide. This has contributed to: l higher yields; l resistance to pests, diseases, drought and soil salinisation; l lower energy consumption and pesticide use and a reduction in soil damage thanks to low-till agriculture; l enhanced nutritional quality; l increased efficiency of nutrient uptake and water use. The latest advances can help meet demands on world farming by rapidly incor - porating traits from the immense genetic variability of wild relatives into established crops, combining many genes to enhance desirable traits and tailoring existing crops to meet new environmental challenges, for example from climate change. They can reduce the time and costs taken to improve research on neglected local crop varieties and so-called orphan crops found in emerging economies. And they can be used to domesticate new crops from semi-wild plants, providing practical and economically feasible new crops. The problems and challenges now lie in the implementation of these impressive scientific advances where they are desperately needed. And this is the issue that has not so far received adequate attention or support. 3 Feeding 9 billion This book owes its origins to its parent volume, Successful Agricultural Innovation in Emerging Economies: New Genetic Technologies for Global Food Production, published by Cambridge University Press in 2013 and edited by David Bennett and Richard Jennings. The parent book was published because of the need to address the many environmental, technical, political, legal and ethical issues involved in implementing the new biotechnologies. The need to put these scientific advances into practice to feed the 9 billion mouths was already widely recognised, yet there was still no source of information for a much wider, non-specialised readership on how this may be effected. The parent book was thus compiled as a series of essays for those wishing to understand the key issues in depth. It was an attempt by experienced people – who have through a good part of their lives worked in the sciences involved and on the policies and practices surrounding them – to explain and promote these advances in the developed and emerging worlds. The present book provides a collected, reliable and succinct account of those same issues in a more accessible format. Its various chapters explore the issues from different angles, but all of them deal expressly with the successful imple mentation of the new plant genetic sciences in emerging economies in the context of inter - related key social, ethical, political, regulatory and trade matters. Its aim is to contribute to global efforts to “feed 9 billion”, so its main focus is on food crops, but it also includes information on some non-food crops – such as cotton – because the issues sur rounding them are similar to those of crops grown for food. It is a resource for students in many disciplines undertaking courses, in-service training, workshops, extension work and similar activities worldwide, whether in developed or emerging economies. We would like to express our sincere gratitude, both to Cambridge University Press for permitting material in Successful Agricultural Innovation in Emerging Economies: New Genetic Technologies for Global Food Production to provide the basis for this book, and to the John Templeton Foundation for support in writing the parent volume, and for funding the writing and production of the present book. Without their considerable support, this would not have been possible. David Bennett and Richard Jennings 4 Feeding 9 billion CONTENTS INTRODUCTION: FOOD PRODUCTION AND SECURITY – CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS 7 Structure and content 11 SECTION ONE: THE IMPACT OF INNOVATORY PLANT SCIENCE 13 ON FOOD SECURITY 1 How to match supply to demand 15 Harnessing plant science for food security 2 Feeding a teeming planet 24 Global population growth, food security and future farming 3 The plant technology toolkit in action 31 New genetics across the globe 4 Measuring the benefits 39 The impacts of first-generation genetically modified crops 5 Roadmap for a continent 46 Modern genetics and plant breeding for Africa 6 Untapped riches 51 Molecular breeding to improve orphan crops Research, discussion and essay topics 56 Further reading and useful websites 57 SECTION TWO: NEW GENETICS IN THE EMERGING WORLD 61 7 Many challenges, many opportunities 64 Crop biotechnology and biosafety in Africa 8 Anatomy of success 73 New genetic technologies in Argentina 9 The necessity of new technologies 79 China’s experience, yesterday and tomorrow 10 A struggle for recognition 86 Food security in India through genetically modified crops 11 More from less – a lasting solution 92 Genetic improvement and sustainable intensification 12 Little