Economic Development Needs Assessment March 2017 Mole Valley District Council Pippbrook Dorking Surrey RH4 1SJ Tel: 01306 885 001 www.molevalley.gov.uk [email protected] Contents 1.0 Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................... 3 2.0 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 5 3.0 Scope, Context and Methodology of the Assessment ................................................................ 8 The Functional Economic Market Area ............................................................................................... 9 4.0 Understanding the Current Market .......................................................................................... 12 Strategies and Assessments affecting Economic Development in Mole Valley ............................... 13 Effectiveness of Core Strategy Employment Land Policy ................................................................. 17 Economic Development implications arising from changes to Permitted Development Rights ...... 19 The Economic and Employment Characteristics of Mole Valley ...................................................... 20 5.0 Retail and Other Town Centre uses .......................................................................................... 25 DORKING – A Centre Assessment ..................................................................................................... 25 LEATHERHEAD – A Centre Assessment ............................................................................................. 29 BOOKHAM DISTRICT CENTRE ............................................................................................................ 33 ASHTEAD DISTRICT CENTRE .............................................................................................................. 34 6.0 Quantitative Need for Retail and Other Town Centre Floorspace - Overview ......................... 35 The Need for Additional Convenience Floorspace ........................................................................... 37 The Need for Additional Comparison Floorspace ............................................................................. 42 The Need for Additional Community and Leisure Facilities .............................................................. 46 Summary and Conclusions ................................................................................................................ 48 7.0 Employment (Class B) Land and Floorspace Stock .................................................................... 50 Market Intelligence ........................................................................................................................... 53 The Mole Valley Business Survey ...................................................................................................... 53 1 8.0 Estimating the Objectively Assessed Need for Employment (Class B) Floorspace ........................ 68 Quantitative Need ............................................................................................................................. 68 Method 1: Employment growth based on increases in floorspace ............................................. 69 Method 2: Need Arising from Labour Supply Forecasts .............................................................. 71 Method 3: Demand Led Forecast Growth in Employment .......................................................... 74 9.0 Economic and Employment Land Profiles by Sub-Area ............................................................ 83 Leatherhead ...................................................................................................................................... 83 Dorking .............................................................................................................................................. 86 Ashtead ............................................................................................................................................. 87 Bookham ........................................................................................................................................... 88 Fetcham ............................................................................................................................................ 89 Rural Areas ........................................................................................................................................ 90 Summary ........................................................................................................................................... 91 10.0 Employment Land Assessments ................................................................................................ 92 Leatherhead ...................................................................................................................................... 92 Dorking ............................................................................................................................................ 105 11.0 Summary and Conclusions ...................................................................................................... 114 APPENDICES 1. FEMA Assessment 2. Technical Appendices plus Annexes – Employment 3. Shopper Survey Study Area Boundaries 4. MVDC Retail Floorspace Capacity Assessments 5. Mole Valley Business Survey Participants and Questionnaire 2 1.0 Executive Summary 1.1 Mole Valley District Council is in the process of preparing a new Local Plan. This Economic Development Needs Assessment (EDNA) forms part of the evidence base and has been prepared to assist the formulation of policy to support sustainable economic growth in the District over the plan period to 2033. It should be read alongside the council’s Functional Economic Market Area Assessment (September 2016) which sets out a contextual summary of Mole Valley’s economic geography and identifies the area across which development needs are to be assessed. 1.2 Regard has been had to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) practice guidance. This identifies the primary objective of the assessment as being: to identify the future quantity of land or floorspace required for economic development uses including both the quantitative and qualitative needs for new development; and provide a breakdown of that analysis in terms of quality and location and to provide an indication of gaps in current land supply. 1.3 Economic Development is defined as “Development, including those within the B Use Classes, public and community uses and main town centre uses (but excluding housing development)”. This study therefore assesses both current provision and future floorspace needs for the retail, leisure and employment sectors. 1.4 Economic uncertainties associated with the vote to leave the European Union may subdue business investment and employment growth. The possibility of higher inflation and a slow down in job creation is also likely to depress consumer spending. Growth indicators of a few years ago have been revised downwards and capacity forecasts subsequently diminished. 1.5 This said, Mole Valley has to date proved highly resilient. Unemployment levels have fallen and remain very low. Confidence and investment in the leisure, retail and employment sectors has been demonstrated and is ongoing. 1.6 Mole Valley does however have an ageing population. Indeed the growth in working age population across the District to 2033 is forecast to be marginal. Net in-commuting, which stood at 4,055 in 2011, is likely to remain a feature of the District. 1.7 The principal findings of this assessment can be summarised as follows: 3 Based on current forecasts there is no need for the allocation of land to support additional convenience retail floorspace in the District to 2033. There may however be market features which support the need for additional convenience floorspace and any proposals coming forward will be considered on a case by case basis. Potential capacity for some 5,000m2 net comparison retail floorspace has been identified by the end of the plan period based on current market share. Forecasting methods do not suggest a need for additional land allocations for employment (Class B) uses in the plan period to 2033. Where existing employment sites are considered suitable for continued employment use they should be retained for that use. In terms of leisure floorspace the District appears to be well- provided for however there may be advantages for the vitality and viability of Leatherhead town centre to encourage the introduction of further food and drink and possibly leisure floorspace. 1.8 The findings of this Economic Development Needs Assessment are that the identified economic development needs of the FEMA to 2033 can largely be met in the currently available and planned floorspace in the District. As we enter a period of economic uncertainty and on-going fast-paced technological advances however, adaptability and flexibility in land allocation policy will be key to fulfilling the economic potential of the District. 4 2.0 Introduction 2.1 Mole Valley District Council is in the process of preparing a new Local Plan. This Economic Development Needs Assessment (EDNA) forms part of the evidence base and has been prepared to assist the formulation of policy to support sustainable economic growth in the District over