you NIGERIA NIGERIAPrepared under the Democracy C and GovernanceROSS Analytical Services-SECTORAL Indefinite Quantity Contract No. AID-OAA-I-10-00004 CONFLICT ASSESSMENT Prepared for Task Order No. AID-522-TO-14-00004 under USAID Indefinite Quantity Contract for De- mocracy and Governance Analytical Services No. AID-OAA-I-10-00004. AUGUST 2014 This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development through Contract No. AID-OAA-I-13-00044. It was prepared by Democracy International, Inc. DISCLAIMER The views expressed in this document are the authors' and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. Submitted to: USAID/Nigeria Prepared by: Hussaini Abdu, Action Aid Nigeria Cybèle Cochran, USAID/DCHA/Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation Felicia Genet, USAID/Nigeria Peace and Democratic Governance Office Samie Ihejirika, Strategic Empowerment and Mediation Agency Adebowale Ben Olorunmola, democracy and governance expert and independent consultant James Shyne, political economist and independent consultant Contractor: Democracy International, Inc. 7600 Wisconsin Avenue, Suite 1010 Bethesda, MD 20814 Tel: 301-961-1660 Email: [email protected] www.democracyinternational.com Sub-contractor: Chemonics International, Inc. 1717 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20006 United States Tel: 202-955-3300 www.chemonics.com NIGERIA CROSS-SECTORAL CONFLICT ASSESSMENT AUGUST 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................................................................................... I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 FINDINGS ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 RECOMMENDATIONS ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 27 ANNEX A: TECHNICAL OFFICE RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................... A-1 ANNEX B: MAP OF FIELD RESEARCH ................................................................................................................................................. B-1 ANNEX C: LIST OF RESPONDENT ORGANIZATIONS ....................................................................................................... C-1 ANNEX D: USAID/NIGERIA ACTIVITY DESCRIPTIONS ....................................................................................................... D-1 ANNEX E: REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................................................. E-1 NIGERIA CROSS-SECTORAL CONFLICT ASSESSMENT – FINAL REPORT ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The conflict assessment team would like to express its sincere appreciation to the many individuals who shouldered the burden of additional responsibilities so the team members could fully apply themselves to the assessment, including the Peace and Democratic Governance team who covered for Conflict Mitigation and Governance Officer Felicia Genet while she served on the assessment. The Regional Security Office and Halogen Security provided critical field support. Numerous embassy, consulate, and USAID staff provided important feedback on successive drafts. Without their contributions, the assessment would not have been a success. The team is especially appreciative of Mukhtari Shitu’s technical support and cross-cultural advice and the Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation for its guidance and collaboration throughout the process. Finally, the assessment team would like to express its gratitude to all the participants in the key informant and group interviews. Their candid and informative reflections were critical for the formulation of this as- sessment’s findings and recommendations. NIGERIA CROSS-SECTORAL CONFLICT ASSESSMENT – FINAL REPORT LIST OF ACRONYMS APC All Progressives Congress BENGONET Benue NGO Network CAF Conflict Assessment Framework CALM Conflict Abatement through Local Mitigation CAN Christian Association of Nigeria CAPP Community Action for Popular Participation CCPS Center for Conflict and Peace Studies CDCS Country Development and Cooperation Strategy CEDI Community Empowerment and Development Initiative CEPID Center for Peace Initiative and Development CEHRD Center for Environment, Human Rights and Development CMM Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation (USAID) CSO Civil Society Organization DFID Department for International Development (UK) DNH Do No Harm DRG Democracy, Human Rights and Governance DRL Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor (U.S. Department of State) EGE Economic Growth and Environment EIA Environmental Impact Assessment FFP Food for Peace FOMWAN Federation of Muslim Women’s Associations of Nigeria GMOU Global Memorandum of Understanding GON Government of Nigeria HPN Health, Population and Nutrition IAH Initiative for the Advancement of Humanity IDP Internally Displaced Person IFESH International Foundation for Education and Self-Help IMC Interfaith Mediation Center INEC Independent National Electoral Commission IOC International Oil Company JIV Joint Investigation Visits JNI Jama’atu Nisril Islam NIGERIA CROSS-SECTORAL CONFLICT ASSESSMENT – FINAL REPORT i JTF Joint Task Force LEAD Leadership, Empowerment, Advocacy and Development LGA Local Government Area LGBT Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgendered LITE Leadership Initiative for Transformation and Empowerment MACBAN Miyette Alla Cattle Breeders’ Association of Nigeria MARKETS II Maximizing Agricultural Revenue and Key Enterprises in Targeted Sites II MAPS Malaria Action Program for States MARPS Most-At-Risk Populations MEND Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta NAPEP National Poverty Eradication Programme NDDC Niger Delta Development Commission NEITI Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative NOSDRA National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency NSRP Nigeria Stability and Reconciliation Programme OTI Office of Transition Initiatives (USAID) OFDA Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID) OVC Orphans and Vulnerable Children PAP Presidential Amnesty Programme PDG Peace, Democracy and Governance PDP People’s Democratic Party PEPFAR President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief PMI President’s Malaria Initiative PPPN Plateau Peace Practitioners’ Network SACA State AIDS Control Agency SACE Strengthening Advocacy and Civic Engagement SFH Society for Family Health SHiPS Strengthening HIV Prevention Services SHOPS Strengthening Health Outcomes through the Private Sector SURE-P Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Program TOLERANCE Training of Leaders on Religious and National Coexistence TRUN Tricycle Riders’ Union of Nigeria UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Program UNEP United Nations Environment Program NIGERIA CROSS-SECTORAL CONFLICT ASSESSMENT – FINAL REPORT ii USAID United States Agency for International Development USIP United States Institute of Peace WASH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene YARAC Youth, Adolescent Reflection and Action Center You WIN Youth Enterprise with Innovation in Nigeria NIGERIA CROSS-SECTORAL CONFLICT ASSESSMENT – FINAL REPORT iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In early 2014, USAID/Nigeria invited the Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation (CMM) to conduct a cross-sectoral conflict assessment focusing on USAID programs and the risk of violence during the 2015 presidential elections. The Mission sought guidance on how to implement programs in a conflict sensitive manner, emphasizing Do No Harm principles, and maximize peacebuilding opportunities. Given that USAID conducted a conflict assessment in Nigeria in 2010 and a desk study of violent extremism in 2013, the 2014 assessment focused primarily on how conflict dynamics have shifted since the 2011 elections in the areas where USAID is operating and how USAID's programs interact with those changing conflict dynamics. The Assessment Team focused on six high-risk states in three regions where USAID has programs: Kaduna and Sokoto in the North West; Benue and Plateau in the North Central; and Delta and Rivers in the Niger Del- ta, or South South region.1 FINDINGS Nigeria is a large, diverse country and conflict dynamics can be highly localized. However, the following pat- terns emerged across states and regions over the course of the assessment: Winner-take-all politics have devastating consequences. Conflict at all levels of Nigerian society is mostly driven by competition over resources. Political and military elites compete for oil and government contracts