1 September 2012 A Report by KEPSA and Ipsos Synovate Improved Economic Indicators Set Pace for Kenya’s Business Leaders Despite the downward trend in fuel prices, interest rates and inflation indicators which wreaked havoc on the economy in 2011, 46% of Kenya’s business leaders believe that the economy in 2012 is moderately or substantially better compared to last year. 42% believe the economy is moderately or substantially worse while 12% believe it’s the same as last year. These are the findings of a new survey by Ipsos Synovate that polled 145 business leaders representing small, medium and large enterprises across various sectors between July and August 2012. The Business Leaders Confidence Index (BLCI) collects business leaders’ perceptions towards the economy in general. It is intended to provide business leaders, policy makers, development partners and others stakeholders with information to complement existing economic indicators. The Kenya BLCI findings indicate that a higher proportion (47%) believe the economy today is performing moderately or substantially better than six months ago (January 2012), only 37% have a positive outlook for the next six months. 40% believe the economy will worsen and 22% believe it will stay the same. The slow confidence has its roots on past experiences during election times and that is why KEPSA bringing together the private sector, civil society and religious leaders, vision 2030 secretariat, NCIC, Ministry of Justice among others is spearheading Mkenya Daima, a campaign geared to pursue peaceful elections and focus Kenyans on prosperity. The past six months have seen the cost of doing business ease, with a sharp fall in inflation to single digits and relative stability of the Kenya shilling - the two factors that helped push up Ipsos Synovate Report by KEPSA and Ipsos Synovate, September 2012 2 costs last year. The shilling is trading at an average of 84 to the dollar compared to 107 in October last year. The Central Bank of Kenya cut the CBK Rate (the rate at which it lends to commercial banks) from 18% to 16.5% in July and further reduced it to 13% in September to make money cheaper for borrowers. Inflation dipped to a new low of 7.74 % in July since the cost of living started climbing down from the peak of 19.72 % in November 2011. Historically, Kenya has in the past experienced economic downturn every time there is an election. This is why this year, KEPSA has engaged in active participation to restore election peace through its Mkenya Daima Campaign, a project that urges Kenyans to be peace loving Prof. Karuti Kanyinga of the University of Nairobi’s Institute of Development Studies has previously published an article that provided data on how agricultural production collapsed every time during a general election in the last 20 years. Agricultural growth levels fell to all-time low between 1991 and 1993 during the first multi-party elections and to -4.98 in 2008, after the country erupted in unrest following the last elections. The recent outbreaks of violence in Tana and North Eastern regions attributed to disagreements by communities over constituency boundaries and incitement by leaders may have sparked fears that the post election violence that rocked the country in 2008 may not be behind us. Industry Analysis When analysed by industry, business leaders in the energy sector were some of the most negative about future economic prospects. Majority (57%) believe 2012 is worse than 2011 which can be attributed to the downward trend in oil prices which has affected industry revenues. 72% believe Kenya’s economy will stay the same over the next six months. Similarly negative were players in the retail and wholesale sector. All those interviewed said that 2012 is worse than last year, 60% believe the economy is worse now that it was six months ago and a similar proportion expect it to get worse in the next six months. 67% of the building and construction industry believe 2012 is worse than last year mainly becauseof the high interest rates which made construction loans expensive, 50% believe the economy now is worse than it was six months ago and 67% expect the next six months to be worse. Even though CBK has lowered its lending rates to commercial banks, the latter have been slow to pass on the benefits in form of lower interest rates to borrowers. Ipsos Synovate Report by KEPSA and Ipsos Synovate, September 2012 3 The financial sector (including banking and insurance) was more upbeat about economic prospects. 47% rate 2012 as being better than last year. 71% believe the economic situation today is better than six months ago while 62% believe the economy will be better in the next six months. In the manufacturing industry, whereas half of those interviewed believe 2012 is worse than last year, a greater proportion (57%) expects the next six months to be better than the current situation. In the agricultural sector 55% said 2012 was better than last year and a similar proportion felt that the current economic situation is better than it was six months ago. When asked about the next six months however, 44% expected the economy to worsen and only 33% expected it to be better. Majority of those interviewed from the hospitality and tourism sector (58%) said that 2012 was worse than last year. One out of three believes the economy today is worse than it was six months ago. A third said the next six months will be better with a similar proportion believing it will be worse.This uncertainty can be attributed to revenge attacks on citizens in Kenya by Al Shabaab sympathisers as a result of Kenya’s involvement in the war in Somalia. In the health sector, 60% said that 2012 is better than last year and 60% said the economy is worse today than it was six months ago. 40% believe that the next six months will be better with a similar proportion expecting it to get worse. The industrial strikes by nurses and the one planned by doctors could be one of the factors contributing to the uncertainty about the future in this sector. Majority (57%) in the education sector said that 2012 is better than last year while a similar proportion said the economy today is better than it was six months ago. 43% believe the next six months will be better and a similar proportion believe it will get worse. The ongoing strikes by teachers and university lecturers are also causing uncertainty in this sector. Overall, business leaders had more confidence in the performance of their own sectors over the next six months (58.3) than in the general performance of the country’s economy (49.1). Business leaders of large enterprises were the most confident while leaders of small enterprises were the least confident about future economic prospects. Ipsos Synovate Report by KEPSA and Ipsos Synovate, September 2012 4 Business Leaders Confidence Index – African Countries Kenyan business leaders were the least confident about future economic prospects (53.8) compared to their Ugandan (65.8) and Zambian counterparts (65.42). Challenges Facing Businesses in Kenya The biggest challenge facing businesses in Kenya according to the survey is high cost of energy (63%) followed by access to credit facilities (61%). Others include insecurity (59%), unfavourable tax regulation policy (54%), political instability (50%) and poor infrastructure (48%) amongst others. Political Landscape Favorability More than three quarters (78%) of business leaders said that Kenya is moderately or very attractive for foreign investors compared to 22% who felt it wasn’t attractive at all. Ipsos Synovate Report by KEPSA and Ipsos Synovate, September 2012 5 Future Business Expansion Plans Asked about their future plans over the next 6-12 months, 77% said they plan to invest in new technology, 70% will launch new products or services, 57% will hire more staff, 48% will expand geographically within Kenya and 48% plan to expand their operations outside the country. Measures in Place to Mitigate the Global Economic Downturn Overall, more than half (56%) are satisfied with the monetary policy measures that the government has put into place to mitigate the global economic downturn. 50% are satisfied with the fiscal policy being implemented and 44% with the economic stimulus program. About the Survey: The target population for this survey was managing directors, chief executive officers and directors of enterprises in Kenya, Mogadishu, Zambia and Uganda. 145 respondents from a variety of sectors were interviewed in Kenya with 64 representing large enterprises, 54 medium and 27 small enterprises. The fieldwork for the Kenya survey was conducted between July and August 2012. Data was collected using a combination of self-completion online questionnaires and face to face interviews. This survey is an initiative of Kenya Private Sector Alliance (KEPSA) and Ipsos Synovate Kenya. For further details on this press release please contact: KEPSA: Ipsos Synovate: Carole Kariuki Wycliffe Owanda Margaret Ireri Victor Rateng Chief Executive Officer Deputy Managing Director Managing Director Project Manager Opinion Polls KEPSA KEPSA Ipsos Synovate Kenya Ipsos Synovate Kenya [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Ipsos Synovate Report by KEPSA and Ipsos Synovate, September 2012.