With a little help from our friends?: Independent commissions and the mediation of issues in post-Good Friday Agreement Northern Ireland Dawn Walsh B.A. (Hons), M.Phil Presented for the qualification of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) School of Law and Government Dublin City University Supervisor: Dr John Doyle September 2014 I hereby certify that this material, which I now submit for assessment on the programme of study leading to the award of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) is entirely my own work, that I have exercised reasonable care to ensure that the work is original, and does not to the best of my knowledge breach any law of copyright, and has not been taken from the work of others save and to the extent that such work has been cited and acknowledged within the text of my work. Signed: ________________________ (Candidate) ID No.: 10111328 Date:__________________________ 2 Acknowledgements This dissertation is dedicated to the people of Northern Ireland those bravery, warmth and ability to move past centuries old hatred have been the inspiration for this work. Completing my doctoral degree has been an intellectually challenging and incredibly rewarding endeavour. The best and worst moments of my doctoral journey have been shared with many people. It has been a great privilege to spend several years in the School of Law and Government, at Dublin City University and its members will always remain dear to me. My first debt of gratitude must go to my advisor, Dr John Doyle. He patiently provided the vision, encouragement and advice necessary for me to complete this dissertation. I want to thank John for his unflagging encouragement and serving as a role model to me as a junior member of academia. He has been a strong and supportive adviser throughout the process, and he has always given me great freedom to pursue independent work. Also at DCU I would also like to extend my sincerest thanks to the Paddy Moriarty Fellowship committee, whose kind support allowed this research to begin, to Dr Eoin O’Malley who has given kindly of this time and expertise to help me to develop my career, and to my fellow PhD students many of whom set a wonderful example. This work would not have been possible without the willingness of many different people to meet with me and discuss the research. I am particularly grateful to members of the four commissions studied, civil servants (past and present), and politicians from all parties in Northern Ireland and those working in civil society who agreed to be interviewed. Informal discussions and guidance were also invaluable and I would like to thank all those who contributed in this way. My friends, and fellow scholars, Dr Clare Hayes-Brady, Jennifer Cowman and Anne Byrne your support and interest in my research have been heartening. Your patience and willingness to listen to my ideas (at length) greatly helped me to clarify my thoughts. Your successes have encouraged and sustained me; it is only right that I should share mine with you. To all my friends at the Political Studies Association of Ireland and the Convention on the Constitution it has been wonderful to know that I am not alone in my idealism, desire to engage with the political world and belief that academic research can be used to benefit wider society. I have been very lucky to have a mother who has been supportive of my education over the last three decades. Her friendship has allowed me to achieve more than I ever dared think possible. Finally, my deepest thanks to the man who is at my side through everything. My darling Cian, your tea-making and proof-reading skills, your support and your kindness have been indispensable. Your love and your belief in me have allowed me to keep going even when things have been difficult and have made the good days even better. The support of the Irish Research Council is gratefully acknowledged. Table of contents INTRODUCTION 7 CHAPTER ONE: THEOREISING POST-AGREEMENT MEDIAITION BY COMMISSIONS 10 Research Question 11 Implementation of peace agreements 13 Theories of third party involvement in peace processes 16 Mediation types 17 What affects mediation type? 22 Who mediates, who should mediate and why do parties enter into mediation? 34 The Northern Ireland Context 43 The EU, the USA and other actors 43 Consociationalism and the GFA 46 Neo-consociationalism: a continuation of the international 47 Traditional consociational principles and the commissions 51 Coercive consociationalism 52 Theoretical Model 54 CHAPTER TWO: METHODOLOGY 64 Background and purpose of project 64 Frequency of variable citation and relative strength of different sources 66 Case selection 68 Deciding what type of mediation 73 The variables in the Northern Ireland context 75 Mediation type vs. mediation content 86 Links between commissions 93 Conclusion 98 CHAPTER THREE: THE INDEPENDENT COMMISSION ON POLICING 100 Background to policing in Northern Ireland 101 The Police Bill and the implementation plan 110 The effect of the variables on the mediation type 116 Conclusion 144 CHAPTER FOUR: THE INDEPENDENT INTERNATIONAL COMMISSION ON DECOMMISSIONING 146 Background to decommissioning in Northern Ireland 147 The International Body on Decommissioning to the signing of the Good Friday Agreement (1996 to spring 1998) 150 4 Table of contents The GFA referendum to the suspension of the Assembly in February 2000 (summer 1998 to spring 2000) 153 Re-establishment of the Assembly to IRA decommissioning (summer 2000 to autumn 2005) 158 Post-IRA decommissioning to the closure of the IICD (winter 2005 to end of 2010) 164 The effect of the variables on the mediation type 167 Conclusion 190 CHAPTER FIVE: THE INDEPENDENT MONITORING COMMISSION 192 The IMC and British demilitarisation 197 Paramilitary activity – from the foundation of the IMC 2003 to Autumn 2005 203 Paramilitary activity from Autumn 2005 to the closure of the IMC in 2011 210 The effect of the variables on the mediation type 216 Conclusion 244 CHAPTER SIX: CONSULTATIVE GROUP ON THE PAST 247 Background to the issue of the past in Northern Ireland 248 The work and report of the CGP 253 The consultation process and beyond 259 The effect of the variables on the mediation type 264 Conclusion 292 CONCLUSION 294 Variables (mediator identity, issue intensity, TOR, GFA) 295 Mediation in an international context 307 Conclusion 313 References 316 Official Statements and reports 323 Newspapers 330 5 Abstract With a little help from our friends?: Independent commissions and the mediation of issues in post-Good Friday Agreement Northern Ireland Dawn Walsh This dissertation uses mediation theory to examine the implementation stage of the Northern Ireland peace process. This highlights the fact that mediation does not end when a peace agreement is signed. The implementation of agreements is also a difficult challenge and an examination of how mediation theory can explain the role of third parties at this significant stage will fill a gap in our understanding of post agreement mediation. It examines how the Independent Commission on Policing, the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning, the Independent Monitoring Commission, and the Consultative Group on the Past managed their respective issues. The analysis establishes what type of mediation each commission used and how the identity of the mediator, the issue intensity, terms of reference of the commission, and the presence and nature of the Good Friday Agreement affected this. It finds that mediator identity has a strong effect on the type of mediation used; a combination of members with high international status and local members facilitated more interventionist mediation. Similarly, despite an inclination to focus on certain aspects of a mandate, terms of reference that explicitly provided for deeper involvement resulted in more interventionist activities. Issue intensity was not found to have a significant effect and its impact was largely mitigated by other factors. Finally, the Good Friday Agreement had a complex effect on the mediation. Mediation type was affected both by the existence of a peace agreement - which was seen as legitimate given its approval in a referendum - and the nature of the agreement as international, Lijphartian, and coercive. 6 Introduction INTRODUCTION We in Ireland appreciate this solidarity and support - from the United States, from the European Union, from friends around the world - more than we can say. The achievement of peace could not have been won without this goodwill and generosity of spirit.1 The role of third parties and external actors in efforts to resolve the conflict in Northern Ireland was one of its most notable aspects. Their involvement has been cited by many as being central to the relative success of the peace process and the negotiation of the Good Friday Agreement (GFA).2 There has been considerable examination of the role of these third parties in the build-up to the 1998 GFA.3 There has also been a small amount of work on the role of the USA in post-agreement Northern Ireland.4 However very little of this literature addressed the role played by a number of key independent commissions, most with a strong international component, that were charged with managing some of the most contentious issues of the peace process. This dissertation addresses this missing dimension. Independent commissions were key players in post-agreement Northern Ireland. Their involvement led in most cases to the relatively successful resolution of issues which were critical stumbling blocks to the implementation and operation of the GFA. This dissertation draws on theoretical approaches in ethnonational conflict resolution that focus on mediation by external actors, specifically the rich repository of research carried out 1 John Hume, ‘Nobel Lecture’, Oslo, December 10, 1998. 2 This agreement is alternatively known as the Good Friday Agreement or the Belfast Agreement.