[email protected] GRAIN PRICES UTILITY? COMMERCIALISATION: SUBSISTENCE CRISES: FUNCTIONING OF VULNERABILITY GRAIN MARKETS TOWARDS HUNGER GRAIN PRICES NEED FOR PRICES WITH HIGHER RESOLUTION IN TIME AND IN SPACE REGION COUNTY OF FLANDERS HIGHLY URBANISED GRAIN PRODUCING DENSE TRADE NETWORK County of Flanders just before it went over to Burgundy in 1384 Source: Wikimedia Commons SOURCES ACCOUNTS OF ECCLESIASTICAL LANDLORDS 1. ABBEYS 2. COLLEGIATE CHURCHES 3. URBAN HOSPITALS Lille, ADN, AH E VI 8 (scroll n°2), L’hôpital Saint-Sauveur, 1351-1352. GRAIN PRICES INFORMATION DIFFERENT DURATION OF TYPES OF HARDSHIP PRICES CHRONOLOGY OVER THE 14TH PRICE PEAKS SALES, PURCHASES, RENT PRICES, RECEIVED VALUES… CENTURY LONG TERM PRICE SHORT TERM PRICE EVOLUTION EVOLUTION DIFFERENT TYPES OF PRICES Wheat Oats Rent price vs. sales Mean Median Mean Median Hospital St Sauveur (L) 117.30% 117.81% 105.72% 101.30% Church St Ame (D) 111.66% 109.45% 98.85% 97.97% Hospital Wetz (D) 106.32% 103.73% 98.91% 99.62% SALES Church Our Lady (C) 104.93% 101.68% 99.02% 98.05% CHEAPER THAN Hospital St Julian (C) 92.16% 91.87% 100.02% 97.85% Rent price vs. estimated value Mean Median Mean Median RENT/MARKET Church St Peter (L) 104.90% 100.00% 91.6% 90.00% PRICE Market price vs. sales Mean Median Mean Median 1 Abbey des Prés (D) 132.33% 129.47% N/A N/A Purchases vs. farm price Mean Median Mean Median PURCHASES Hospital St John (B) 112.71% 106.70% 95.59% 95.83% MORE Hospital Potterie (B) 99.88% 100,00% N/A N/A EXPENSIVE Purchases vs. hereditary rents Mean Median Mean Median Church St Nicolas (G) (corn) 151.07% 156.25% N/A N/A 2 CHRONOLOGY OVER THE 14TH CENTURY CHRONOLOGY OVER THE 14TH CENTURY PRICE IN SILVER / HL. INTERQUARTILE MEANS OVER 13 YEARS • ELIMANTES EXTREMES • EVOLUTION ON THE LONG RUN 160 70 Wheat priceWheatin Flemish priceCitiesin Flemish(1300cities-1400),(1300 IQM- 1400)(13y) 140 60 120 50 100 40 80 30 Gr. silver / silver hl. Gr. Gr. / hl. Silver Gr. 60 20 40 10 20 00 Bruges Ghent (rye) Lille Douai Cambrai 2535 Oats prices inOats Flemish pricecities in Flemish(1300 -cities1400), (1300 IQM- 1400)(13y) 30 20 25 15 20 15 10 Gr. silver / silver hl. Gr. Gr. silver / silver hl. Gr. 10 5 5 00 Bruges Ghent Lille Douai Cambrai LONG TERM MACRO LEVEL Pearson’s R ANNUAL PRICE IQM (13y) WHEAT Bruges Ghent Lille Douai Cambrai Bruges Ghent Lille Douai Cambrai Bruges 1.000 0.883** 0.933**H IGH0.884**DEGREE 0.714**OF 1.000MARKET 0.984** 0.987** 0.950** 0.867** Ghent (r) 1.000 0.855**INTEGRATION 0.806** 0.662**, ALREADY IN1.000 0.975** 0.955** 0.915** Lille 1.000 0.940** 0.767** 1.000 0.992* 0.914** Douai THE1.000 140.829**TH CENTURY 1.000 0.930** Cambrai 1.000 1.000 OATS Bruges Ghent Lille Douai Cambrai Bruges Ghent Lille Douai Cambrai Bruges 1.000 0.658** 0.734** 0.877** 0.704** 1.000 0.802** 0.918** 0.981** 0.934** Ghent 1.000 0.768** 0.785** 0.407* 1.000 0.900** 0.850** 0.534** Lille 1.000 0.864** 0.793** 1.000 0.909** 0.869** Douai 1.000 0.814** 1.000 0.947** Cambrai 1.000 1.000 * Sig. < 0.05; ** Sig. < 0.01 PRICE PEAKS REGIONAL OR LOCAL IMPACT? PRICE PEAKS MICRO LEVEL: FROM REGIONAL LONG TERM FLUCTUATIONS TO LOCAL CYCLI METHODOLOGY FAMINE STUDIES: DIFFERENCE WITH ‘NORMAL PRICE’ ( = AVG. PREVIOUS 2ND-9TH YEAR) > 100% = FOOD CRISES 350% Wheat price peaks in Flanders (1300-1400) 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% Bruges Ghent (rye) Lille Douai Cambrai 300% Oats price peaks in Flanders (1300-1400) 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% Bruges Ghent (rye) Lille Douai Cambrai SHORT TERM HIGH PRICE PEAKS COINCIDE BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON A YEAR TO YEAR BASIS DURATION OF HARDSHIP DURATION OF HARDSHIP METHODOLOGY Grain prices on a monthly basis (unique) Real wages – consumer baskets Benchmark poverty 25 35 30 20 25 / hl. 15 20 Flemish 15 10 . gr. gr. 10 d. gr. Flemish Flemish / hl. d. gr. d 5 5 0 0 Ghent (rye) Lille Douai Cambrai Bruges Lille Douai Cambrai 50 60 45 50 40 35 40 30 25 30 20 20 15 d.gr. Flemish Flemish / hl. d.gr. d. gr. Flemish Flemish / hl. d. gr. 10 10 5 0 0 Bruges Ghent (rye) Lille Douai Cambrai Bruges Ghent (rye) Lille Douai Cambrai SAME PEAK PERIODS 3 DIFFERENCE IN YEAR-TO-YEAR PRICE LEVELS 4 HUMAN POLITICAL- DIFFERENCE INSTITUTIONAL IN FUNCTIONING ‘AGENCY’ CONTROL GRAIN MARKET CHRONOLOGY DIFFERENT OVER THE 14TH PRICE PEAKS DURATION OF TYPES OF CENTURY HARDSHIP PRICES 14TH C. FLANDERS HIGH DEGREE OF MARKET INTEGRATION MACROVARIATION IN CHRONOLOGY MICROAND GEOGRAPHY.