17th FLIGHT OF ‘KYSS-T’ DEFENSE-DODGING WARHEAD TEST [NOV 28, 2019] REVIEW DRAFT 3 January 10, 2020 // James Oberg [email protected] Previous test was last July [http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/ 190726_topol_review_draft_1.pdf] НЛО В РОССИИ В небе над Челябинском заметили ракету | 74.RU A rocket was spotted in the sky over Chelyabinsk 21,494 views // Nov 28, 2019 // 74ru https://youtu.be/W23VKYpitBw ONE OF THE BEST EVER VIDEOS OF FINAL PLUME FORMATION AND DISPERSAL, LOOKING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE DEPARTING KYSST WARHEAD, SEEING IT FROM BEHIND AT ABOUT A 45° ANGLE. 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 2 Chelyabinsk-74ru comments Algo1987oo == Did it run out of fuel over Chelyabinsk? By this it ceased to glow? Algo1987oo == У неё топливо над челябинском кончилось ? по этому она перестала светиться ? Sergey Kom == Something slowly flies. Sergey Kom == Чёт-то медленно летит. Alexey Alekseev == What nonsense are you Алексей Алексеев == Что за глупости carrying? What kind of rocket? Suddenly, вы несёте какая ракета. Внезапно на they launched it in the sky and небе её запустили и сразу immediately they stopped it. остановили. d0vbisheva == вчера это же явление наблюдали у нас в Украине в Каховке d0vbisheva == Yesterday the same Херсонской области. Это на самом phenomenon was observed here in Ukraine юге, недалеко от Крыма. Вот так же in Kakhovka, Kherson region. It is in the все гадают, но профессиональных комментариев нет. south, near the Crimea. That’s how everyone guesses, but there are no expert comments. 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 3 Челябинцев напугал взрыв "Тополя“ The explosion of the ‘Topol’ missile frightened Chelyabinskers 74ru // 5,894 views // Nov 28, 2019 // https://youtu.be/X112Wgg9iqE 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 4 Chelyabinsk https://youtu.be/X112Wgg9iqE VIEW OF THE MISSILE PLUME FLARE FROM CHELYABINSK, RUSSIA 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 5 CONTENTS [REVIEW DRAFT 3] THIS REPORT WAS ASSEMBLED 007 PURPOSE OF REPORT FOR EASY SKIMMING OVER TOO 020 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT MUCH DETAIL ON ANY SPECIFIC 021 BACKGROUND & CONTEXT THEMES. THE DEPTH OF DETAIL 028 UNIQUE SPECTACULAR VISUAL EFFECTS MAY SEEM DAUNTING BUT ANY 031 METHODOLOGY FOR ROCKET-SPOTTING SLEUTHING EDITORIAL WHITTLING DOWN OF 034 MEDIA COVERAGE OVERVIEW SUCH MATERIAL THREATENS TO 070 WAS THERE AN Extra plume? UNWITTINGLY INTRODUCE THE 086 Reader comments and debates AUTHOR’S OWN VALUE SYSTEM 109 WARHEAD BUS OBSERVED?? 120 DETERMINING MISSILE LAUNCH TIME ONTO THE RAW DATA. ALL THE 130 Was launch observable from ISS? INTERPRETATIONS ARE ONLY 149 ADDITIONAL MEDIA COVERAGE PROVISIONAL AND ARE SUBJECT 149 REVIEW OF THIS REPORT & WIDER PERPECTIVE TO CHANGE OR ABANDONMENT 152 Miscellaneous gallery of KYSST images AS INSIGHTS IMPROVE WITH THE 172 APPENDIXES WISHED-FOR AID FROM READERS. 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 6 PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT • PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF KYSST-17 MISSION • IDENTIFICATION OF STANDARD FEATURES • IDENTIFICATION OF UNUSUAL/DIFFERENT FEATURES • ELABORATION OF POSSIBILITY OF DELIBERATE TIMING FOR ISS OBSERVABILITY • IDENTIFICATION OF BEST-EVER VIDEO IMAGING OF PLUMES • OFFER BEST-ESTIMATES OF THE NATURE OF PLUME ELEMENTS • ASSESSMENT OF RANGE OF PUBLIC REACTIONS TO OBSERVATION • COLLECTION OF AS MANY INTERNET LINKS AS POSSIBLE [most as yet unevaluated] FOR LATER EVALUATION BY FUTURE INVESTIGATORS • RECOMMEND INVESTIGATIVE METHODOLOGY FOR USE BY OTHERS • IDENTIFY ‘OPEN ISSUES’ REQUIRING MORE DETAILED FOLLOW-UP • ASK FOR SPECIFIC HELP WITH RESEARCH AND TRANSLATIONS 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 7 С полигона Капустин Яр произвели запуск ракеты "Тополь“ Launch of a ‘Topol’ missile is carried out from Kapustin Yar MOSCOW, November 28. / TASS /. The МОСКВА, 28 ноября. /ТАСС/. Ракетные войска стратегического назначения (РВСН) выполнили с Strategic Missile Forces (Strategic Missile полигона Капустин Яр пуск межконтинентальной Forces) launched the Topol intercontinental баллистической ракеты (МБР) "Тополь". Учебная ballistic missile (ICBM) from the Kapustin Yar боевая часть МБР поразила цель на полигоне в training ground. The training combat unit of Казахстане, сообщили в четверг в Минобороны the ICBMs hit the target at a training ground РФ. in Kazakhstan, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Thursday. "28 ноября 2019 года с государственного центрального межвидового полигона Капустин "On November 28, 2019, from the state Яр в Астраханской области боевым расчетом central interspecific training ground Kapustin Ракетных войск стратегического назначения Yar in the Astrakhan region, a combat проведен пуск межконтинентальной calculation of the Strategic Missile Forces баллистической ракеты подвижного грунтового launched the intercontinental ballistic missile ракетного комплекса "Тополь", - отметили в of the Topol mobile soil missile complex, the ведомстве. department said. JO: NO LAUNCH TIME GIVE. NO MENTION OF MANEUVERABLE WARHEAD DEVELOPMENT. 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 8 MORE AND BETTER AMATEUR VIDEO OF FLIGHT • REINFORCES VALUE OF ASSESSMENT OF SERENDIPITOUS OBSERVATIONS • INTERNET TOOLS FOR COLLECTION AND ASSESSMENT OF VIDEOS • REPORT DESCRIBES RESEARCH TECHNIQUES FOR ANYONE ELSE • STANDARD FEATURES =AND= NEW FEATURES CAN BE IDENTIFIED • SEVERAL VIDEOS SHOW THE ACTUAL TOPOL WARHEAD POST-SPIRAL • ALSO, CHELYABINSK ALL-SKY CAMERA CATCHES FULL SEQUENCE, TIMED • “ROCKET-SPOTTING” EXPERIENCE BROADENS WITH PRACTICE 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 9 RELEASED ON INTERNET, BUT ACTUALLY THIS IS A STOCK PHOTO FROM SEP 29, 2017 THE ‘HOLE’ AT THE BACK END OF THE PLUME IS PROBABLY THE ‘PLUME SHADOW’ OF AFT END OF WARHEAD BUS, CAST BY FOUR LATERALLY MOUNTED THRUSTER PODS [WHICH ALSO FORM EQUAL-SPACED NOTCHES AROUND AFT CIRCUMFERENCE] THIS IS A SUPERB EXAMPLE OF ‘CLASSIC’ POST-SPIRAL PLUME STRUCTURE WITHOUT THE NEW FEATURE SEEN ON KYSST-17 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 10 SHOCK CONTENT! UFO IN UFA. ШОК КОНТЕНТ!!! НЛО В УФЕ!! БАШКИРЫ СПАСАЙТЕСЬ!!!! https://youtu.be/aUsBZ_XtOC0 MUCH IS FAMILIAR – AND SOME FEATURES ARE NEW! COMPARE TO PREVIOUS PAGE 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 11 MANY IMAGES FROM THIS MISSION SHOW AN ADDITIONAL PLUME FEATURE, PLUS PROPER ANGLE TO SEE ‘BLACK HOLE’ EFFECT ON SPIRAL ‘BLACK HOLE’ IN SPIRAL LIKE ‘NORWAY SPIRAL’, DECEMBER 2009 [right] NORWAY [2009] NEW FEATURE ORIGINAL ENHANCED https://pohvistnevo-inform.ru/upload/000/u1/d/4/ufimcy-zasnjali-na-video-svetjaschiisja- obekt-v-nebe-photo-big.jpg 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 12 Светящийся объект в небе: что это было на самом деле? Glowing object in the sky: what was it really? ИА Удмуртия -- Военные прокомментировали появление светящегося Photoanalysis on next page → объекта . Вечером 28 ноября он появился в небе над Information Agency Udmurtia - The military Ижевском, жители начали commented on the appearance of a luminous object. On the evening of November 28, he выкладывать фото и видео. appeared in the sky above Izhevsk, residents Странный объект заметили и began to upload photos and videos. A strange в других регионах страны, object was noticed in other regions of the многие приняли его за НЛО. country, many took it for a UFO. 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 13 След от ракеты над башкирским городом Салават. Фото: Арина Султангареева Trail from a rocket over the Bashkir city of Udmurtia Salavat. Photo: Arina Sultangareyeva • bbSTRANGE OBJECT IS SEEN IN MANY DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE COUNTRY, MANY TAKE IT FOR A UFO 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 14 https://openmedia.io/files/2019 /11/IMG-20191128-WA0033.jpg Udmurtia https://openmedia.io/wtfuture/zhiteli-rossii-uvideli-nlo-v-nebe- minoborony-zapustilo-ocherednuyu-mezhkontinentalnuyu-raketu/ 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 15 NOTE THAT NEW PLUME Nov 28, 2019 TOPOL TEST Bashkir city of Salavat. STRUCTURE IS OFF AXIS Photo: Arina Sultangareyeva SIGNIFICANTLY Udmurtia AXIS OF PLUME AND SPIRAL WARHEAD BODY TAIL SHADOW CIRCUMFERENTIAL QUARTERNOTCHES BUS SPINUP THRUSTER SPIRAL PREVIOUSLY UNSEEN EXTRA PLUME EXPANDING INTERSPIRAL GAP ANNOTATIONS COPYRIGHT @2019 JAMES OBERG 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 16 Вот так выглядел пуск из Ирана: HERE’S HOW THE LAUNCH LOOKED FROM IRAN NOTE TO INVESTIGATORS: THESE AMAZING PHOTOS FROM AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT VIEWING REGION – IRAN -- WERE NOT FOUND BY ANY STANDARD KEYWORD SEARCH – THE ONLY ONE THAT WORKED WAS ‘Сары Шаган’ – THE NAME OF THE IMPACT POINT, IN RUSSIAN. https://ic.pics.livejournal.com/diana_mihailova/78277673/3129183/3129183_900.jpg 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 17 • bb MIKHAILOVA, IRAN, ENHANCED/ROTATED 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 18 PROBABLY PLUME LENGTH THIRD STAGE THIRD STAGE WARHEAD APPROX 200 KM PLUME CUTOFF PLUME START BUS?? BOUNDARY BOUNDARY DEPARTING PLUME SPREADING BOUNDARY AFT HOLE AND CAVITY CREATED BY PLUME SHADOWING ON NEW PLUME, THIRD STAGE AFT BODY POSSIBLY THIRD SPINUP MOTOR STAGE ANOMALY? BURST SPIRAL, SIDE-VIEW • bb ANNOTATED WITH INTERPRETATIONS OF PROFILE IMAGE FEATURES 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 19 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT • REFERENCES TO PREVIOUS MISSIONS • METHODOLOGY FOR ROCKET-SPOTTING SLEUTHING • MEDIA COVERAGE OVERVIEW • NEWLY-OBSERVED FEATURES • WARHEAD BUS DETECTED? • ADDITIONAL POST-SHUTDOWN PLUME • LAUNCH TIME DETERMINATION • ISS COORDINATION – COINCIDENCE OR BY DESIGN? • APPENDIX WITH BULK OF UNEVALUATED REPORTS/LINKS 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 20 BACKGROUND & CONTEXT • PREVIOUS KYSST MISSIONS • KYSST FLIGHT GROUND TRACK • KYSST TRAJECTORY PROFILE • KYSST FLIGHT PHASES AND APPEARANCE OF EACH • METHODOLOGY OF MISSION RESEARCH 01/10/2020 KYSST-17 [Nov 28, 2019] 21 WHAT IS