International Technology Research Institute World Technology (WTEC) Division WTEC Panel Report on The Future of Data Storage Technologies Sadik C. Esener (Panel Co-Chair) Mark H. Kryder (Panel Co-Chair) William D. Doyle Marvin Keshner Masud Mansuripur David A. Thompson June 1999 International Technology Research Institute R.D. Shelton, Director Geoffrey M. Holdridge, WTEC Division Director and ITRI Series Editor 4501 North Charles Street Baltimore, Maryland 21210-2699 WTEC Panel on the Future of Data Storage Technologies Sponsored by the National Science Foundation, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and National Institute of Standards and Technology of the United States government. Dr. Sadik C. Esener (Co-Chair) Dr. Marvin Keshner Dr. David A. Thompson Prof. of Electrical and Computer Director, Information Storage IBM Fellow Engineering & Material Sciences Laboratory Research Division Dept. of Electrical & Computer Hewlett-Packard Laboratories International Business Machines Engineering 1501 Page Mill Road Corporation University of California, San Diego Palo Alto, CA 94304-1126 Almaden Research Center 9500 Gilman Drive Mail Stop K01/802 La Jolla, CA 92093-0407 Dr. Masud Mansuripur 650 Harry Road Optical Science Center San Jose, CA 95120-6099 Dr. Mark H. Kryder (Co-Chair) University of Arizona Director, Data Storage Systems Center Tucson, AZ 85721 Carnegie Mellon University Roberts Engineering Hall, Rm. 348 Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3890 Dr. William D. Doyle Director, MINT Center University of Alabama Box 870209 Tuscaloosa, AL 35487-0209 INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE World Technology (WTEC) Division WTEC at Loyola College (previously known as the Japanese Technology Evaluation Center, JTEC) provides assessments of foreign research and development in selected technologies under a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). Loyola’s International Technology Research Institute (ITRI), R.D. Shelton, Director, is the umbrella organization for WTEC. Elbert Marsh, Deputy Assistant Director for Engineering at NSF’s Engineering Directorate, is NSF Program Director for WTEC. Several other U.S. government agencies provide support for the program through NSF. WTEC’s mission is to inform U.S. scientists, engineers, and policymakers of global trends in science and technology in a manner that is timely, credible, relevant, efficient, and useful. WTEC’s role is central to the government’s effort to measure its performance in science and technology. Panels of typically six technical experts conduct WTEC assessments. Panelists are leading authorities in their field, technically active, and knowledgeable about U.S. and foreign research programs. As part of the assessment process, panels visit and carry out extensive discussions with foreign scientists and engineers in their labs. The ITRI staff at Loyola College helps select topics, recruits expert panelists, arranges study visits to foreign laboratories, organizes workshop presentations, and finally, edits and disseminates the final reports. Dr. R.D. Shelton Mr. Geoff Holdridge Dr. George Gamota ITRI Director WTEC Division Director ITRI Associate Director Loyola College Loyola College 17 Solomon Pierce Road Baltimore, MD 21210 Baltimore, MD 21210 Lexington, MA 02173 WTEC Panel on The Future of Data Storage Technologies FINAL REPORT June 1999 Sadik C. Esener (Panel Co-Chair) Mark H. Kryder (Panel Co-Chair) William D. Doyle Marvin Keshner Masud Mansuripur David A. Thompson ISBN 1-883712-53-x This document was sponsored by the National Science Foundation (NSF), Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) and National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) of the U.S. government under NSF Cooperative Agreement ENG-9707092, awarded to the International Technology Research Institute at Loyola College in Maryland. The government has certain rights to this material. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States government, the authors’ parent institutions, or Loyola College. ABSTRACT This report reviews the status of Japanese high-density data storage technology, manufacturing and R&D in comparison to that in the United States. It covers various optical data storage technologies, magnetic hard disk drives, and magnetic tape drives, as well as the emerging long-term data storage technology alternatives. Information sources used in the study include literature review, site visits in Japan, and a review of the draft report by panelists, site visit hosts, and study sponsors. It also includes information obtained from presentations from U.S. panelists and Japanese counterparts given at a workshop that took place in Tokyo prior to the site visits. The organizations chosen for site visits were those that have established a leadership role in some important aspect of data storage technology. In all, the panelists visited 15 Japanese institutions including 5 companies and one government organization involved in optical data storage only, 4 companies focused on magnetic data storage only, and 5 companies that are heavily involved in both magnetic and optical data storage. The panel found that Japan clearly leads in optical data storage and magnetic tape drives, both countries are competitive in magnetic hard disk drives, and researchers in both countries are clearly aware of future challenges in data storage technologies for the next decade. Both the United States and Japan put significant emphasis on long-range alternative data storage techniques. There are clear possibilities for Japan to surpass the United States in the hard disk drive segment and opportunities for the United States to catch up in optical data storage. Japanese government funding in data storage in general appears to far outstrip comparable government funding in the United States. In optical data storage, with Japan being in a comfortable leading position, most R&D funding is derived from industrial sources, although new large government programs in this area are being started. However, there is substantial present government and industrial support for R&D in magnetic hard disk drives where Japan trails the United States. International Technology Research Institute (ITRI) R. D. Shelton, Principal Investigator, ITRI Director George Mackiw, Deputy ITRI Director George Gamota, ITRI Associate Director J. Brad Mooney, TTEC Division Director Robert Margenthaler, BD Division Director World Technology (WTEC) Division Geoffrey M. Holdridge, WTEC Division Director Bobby A. Williams, Financial Officer Aminah Grefer, Editorial Assistant Catrina M. Foley, Administrative Assistant Christopher McClintick, Head of Publications Section Roan E. Horning, Professional Assistant, Web Administrator Michael Stone, LINUX Systems Administrator Sarah Mayne, Student Assistant Gerald Whitman, Japan Advance Contractor Hiroshi Morishita, WTEC Japan Representative Copyright 1999 by Loyola College in Maryland except where otherwise noted. This work relates to NSF Cooperative Agreement ENG-9707092. The U.S. government retains a nonexclusive and nontransferable license to exercise all exclusive rights provided by copyright. The ISBN number for this report is 1-883712-53-x. This report is distributed by the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce as NTIS report PB99-144214 . A list of available WTEC reports is included on the inside back cover of this report. Recent reports are posted on the Internet at http://itri.loyola.edu. i FOREWORD Timely information on scientific and engineering developments occurring in laboratories around the world provides a critical input to maintaining the economic and technological strength of the United States. Moreover, sharing this information quickly with other countries can greatly enhance the productivity of scientists and engineers. These are some of the reasons why the National Science Foundation (NSF) has been involved in funding science and technology assessments comparing the United States and foreign countries since the early 1980s. A substantial number of these studies have been conducted by the World Technology Evaluation Center (WTEC) Division, managed by Loyola College through a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation. The purpose of the WTEC activity is to assess research and development efforts in other countries in specific areas of technology, to compare these efforts and their results to U.S. research in the same areas, and to identify opportunities for international collaboration in precompetitive research. Many U.S. organizations support substantial data gathering and analysis efforts focusing on nations such as Japan. But often the results of these studies are not widely available. At the same time, government and privately sponsored studies that are in the public domain tend to be “input” studies. They enumerate inputs to the research and development process, such as monetary expenditures, personnel data, and facilities, but do not provide an assessment of the quality or quantity of the outputs obtained. Studies of the outputs of the research and development process are more difficult to perform because they require a subjective analysis performed by individuals who are experts in the relevant scientific and technical fields. The NSF staff includes professionals with expertise in a wide range of disciplines. These individuals provide the expertise needed to assemble panels of experts