1 On Complex Adaptive System Engineering (CASE) Brian E. White, Ph.D. Director, Systems Engineering Process Office (SEPO) The MITRE Corporation 12 May 2008 8th Understanding Complex Systems Symposium University of Illinois at Champaign-Urbana 12-15 May 2008 Public Release Case Number: 08-1459 © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Fundamentals of Enterprise Systems Engineering (ESE)* Outline Big Ideas Basics of ESE – Making it an engineering discipline Next generation systems thinking An example ____________ * ESE can be thought of as the same as complex systems engineering (CSE) 2 [White, 2008b] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved but there can be nuances of difference. See Charts 8 and 44. Big Ideas Complex systems abound – Mega-projects in transportation, the environment, U.S. DoD’s Global Information Grid (GIG), etc. – Internet culture—massive connectivity and interdependence Complexity theory applies – Much activity in complexity science across many fields – University interest in developing ideas for engineering (MIT, Johns Hopkins, UCSD, USC, Stevens, UVM, U of I, Old Dominion) Complexity is embedded in everyday knowledge – The Gardener metaphor (vs. The Watchmaker) – Biology and natural evolutionary processes – The way we think, our language/semantics – Markets (viz., The Wisdom of Crowds, The Black Swan) Traditional Systems Engineering (TSE) methods may not help – But temptation is strong to keep trying them One can dependably, but not predictably, build complex systems – Using systems thinking and Complex Systems Engineering (CSE) 3 [White, 2008b] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved A Spectrum of Systems See Notes Page System: An instance of a set of degrees of freedom* having relationships with one another sufficiently cohesive to distinguish the system from its environment.** *Normally grouped into subsets or elements **This cohesion is also called system identity Less complex More complex Pre-specified Evolving 4 [White, 2008b] and [Kuras-White, 2005] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Relative Importance of Opportunity See Notes Page Uncertainty Risk Opportunity Un-assessable Unknown Enterprise View System of Systems View Systems View Risk Opportunity 5 [White, 2008b], [White, 2007b], [White, 2007a], and [White, 2006] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved {View} = {Scope, Granularity, Mindset, Timeframe} Large Enterprise A change in a mind’s focus Inaccessible Region results in a change of View! (where a given human cannot conceptualize No View change can take Scope one beyond this limit! SoS (e.g., FoV) Time Accessible Region (where that human System Mindset can conceptualize) (e.g., cognitive focus) Small Coarse Fine Granularity (e.g., resolution) 6 [White, 2008b] and [White, 2007] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved The Enneagram Web* 9/0 Identity Self-Organization Domains Structure/Context 8 1 Intention Living Systems Command and Control Patterns and Processes Pattern and Process 2 Issues Learning 7 “Numerology” Coincidences? Octet: 0-7 order is logical Whole circle is “one” Living beings order: 1/7 = 0.1428571… 3 Relationships Information 6 The Work 5 4 Principles & Standards ____________ 7 [White, 2008b] * [Knowles, 2002, pp. 30, 32, 33, and 39] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Degree of Difficulty View of Engineering See Notes Page Disciplines Systems Science Context Complexity Systems Theory Thinking System ESE Mission System Behavior Environment Strategic Context Context CSE′ Increasing Degree of Difficulty SE′ Desired Scope Outcome of Effort Engineering′ Fundamental Applied Research Research Stakeholder Scale Relationships of Effort Implementation Stakeholder Context Context Stakeholder Acquisition Involvement Modeling & Environment Simulation 8 [White, 2008b] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Outline Big Ideas Basics of ESE – Making it an engineering discipline Next generation systems thinking An example 9 [White, 2008b] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Basics of Enterprise Systems Engineering An Enterprise is made up of a complex interaction of autonomous agents (people), processes, and technology; enterprises – Are recursively defined – Have transaction variables – Have multiple scales – Are socio-cultural, techno-economic- … A process orientation is essential to ESE (see Chart 17) – Traditional Systems Engineering (TSE) is the “Inside Loop” – Enterprise Systems Engineering (ESE) is the “Outside Loop” There are complementary mindsets and theories to be applied to ESE Enterprise development involves several holistic areas/activities, e.g., – Balance between variety and uniformity – Shaping of interactions – Deciding what is nourished and what is not 10 [White, 2008b] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Enterprise Definition People, processes, and technology interacting with each other and their environment to achieve goals Environmental Stress people processes technology Enterprise Model 11 [White, 2008b] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Recursive Nature of the Definition At every level an enterprise itself is a part of a larger enterprise and contains sub-enterprises of people, processes and technology Public education University College The sub-enterprise contributes to the goals of the larger enterprise. 12 [White, 2008b] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Boundary for ESE—An Operational Definition See Notes Page For the purposes of ESE, the enterprise is defined as the set of system elements that participating actors either control or influence. The remainder constitutes the enterprise environment. Uncontrolled Environment Elements ESE Boundary Complementary ESE Processes Influenced TSE Processes Elements Controlled Elements The Enterprise boundary is a virtual construct depending on the make-up and authority of the participating actors and stakeholders. 13 [White, 2008b] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved ESE and Business Process Relationships Throughput Process ESE Realm Systems Development Process Create & Disseminate Systems/Services Membership Leadership (Roles & (Vision, Goals Responsibility) Plan & Govern) Learning & Conflict Control Management (Evaluate & (Coop, Compet., Assess) Trades) Business Processes 14 [White, 2008b] and [Gharajedaghi, 1999] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved A Challenge of Enterprise Governance Traditional Enterprise Governance Governance Benefit to the Individual Benefit to the Enterprise Enterprise Governance Must Reverse the Traditional Rewards Curve 15 [White, 2008b] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved SE Process Moving to ESE Integration Integration Influence or shape Integrated Integrated & & Unchanging Complex Selection Unorganized Unorganized & & Variation Unchanging Complex Innovation (Differentiation) Innovation (Differentiation) A “realized” enterprise re-invents itself through a The ESE process must shape the integration and process of continual innovation and integration.* innovation environment.** ___________ __________ * After [Gharajedaghi, 1999] ** After [Axelrod-Cohen, 2001] 16 [White, 2008b] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved ESE Processes in Context Gharajedaghi Enterprise Traditional Business Systems Engineering Systems Engineering Processes Processes Processes Enterprise Management Req Dev & Mgt Vision Strategic Technical Plan Risk Mgt Goals Enterprise Architecture Config Mgt Conflict Mgt Cap Planning Analysis Tech Project Plng Technology Planning Roles & Resp QA System Safety ILS Shape Innovate Integrate Restructure Process Design The Improvement Implement Enterprise (CMMI) Transition Diagnostics Analysis & Assessment Integrated Test Enterprise Assessment 17 [White, 2008b] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Outline Big Ideas Basics of ESE – Making it an engineering discipline Next generation systems thinking An example 18 [White, 2008b] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Next Generation Systems Thinking* Complex adaptive systems are … unique and non-reproducible, open, dynamic, self-organizing, unpredictable and surprising, sub-optimum but robust, unstable, … Focus on – The big picture where the parts are characteristic of the whole – Engineering the environment of a complex system Reductionism/Constructionism does not work when one cannot – Control stakeholders – Predict outcomes – Successfully prespecify future capabilities ESE becomes more like a regimen** – Identify Outcome Spaces Capabilities-based – Shape the developmental environment Establish rewards (and penalties) Distribute rewards for achievement of goals Apply developmental stimulants (stir the pot and change the rules) – Couple development to operations Characterize continuously (as in markets) Enforce safety regulations that ensure continuous operation ____________ 19 [White, 2008b] * See [White, 2008] for recent essays on complexity, complex systems and CSE ** [Kuras-White, 2005] © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Enterprise Systems Engineering (ESE) Profiler 20 [White, 2008b] Source: Renee Stevens © 2008 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved Version 1 – 2 Oct 07 Systems Engineering Activity (SEA) Profiler Typical Systems Left End of Left Intermediate Interval Center Intermediate Right Intermediate Right End of Engineering Activity Slider Interval Interval Slider Define the System Establish Adapt to Changing Revise and Restate Try to Predict Future Discover