MASARYK UNIVERSITY FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE The Process and Selection of the New Conservative Party Leader in the UK Bachelor thesis Nathalie Marková (439740) Thesis supervisor: Mgr. Peter Spáč, Ph.D. Political Science – International Relations Matriculations year 2014 Brno 2017 Declaration of Authorship I hereby certify that this bachelor thesis has been composed by me and is based on my own work, unless stated otherwise. No other person’s work has been used without proper acknowledgement. All references and all sources of information, including graphs and data sets, have been specifically acknowledged. In Brno, 15th of May 2017 ............................................................................... Nathalie Marková 2 I would like to give my thanks: To my supervisor, Mgr. Peter Spáč, Ph.D. for his help, constructive advices and priceless guidance, as well as, for friendly environment and communication To my friends and family for their kindness, support and help 3 Keywords: Conservative party, Great Britain, UK, Theresa May, 2016, Brexit, leadership selection, leadership race, leadership election, Reuven Y. Hazan, Gideon Rahat, candidate selection theory Abstract: The main aim of this thesis is to use the Reuven Y. Hazan and Gideon Rahat candidate selection theory and apply it on the 2016 UK Conservative Party leadership selection. The theory and all its four main dimensions shall be applied on the process which led to the election of Theresa May as the new Conservative Party leader. Klíčová slova: Konzervativní strana, Velká Británie, UK, Theresa May, 2016, Brexit, volba předsedy strany, selekce předsedy strany, předsednická soutěž, Reuven Y. Hazan, Gideon Rahat, teorie výběru kandidátů Anotace: Cílem této bakalářské práce je aplikovat teorii výběru kandidátů vytvořenou Reuvenem Y. Hazanem a Gideonem Rahatem na volbu nového předsedy Konzervativní strany ve Velké Británii, která proběhla v roce 2016. Daná teorie je složena ze čtyř dimenzí, které jsou postupně aplikovány na proces zvolení Theresy May do čela strany. 4 Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 6 Selection of Party Leaders .......................................................................................................... 8 Importance of Given Topic ..................................................................................................... 8 The Force Behind the Change .............................................................................................. 11 Research Design ....................................................................................................................... 13 Research Questions and Data ............................................................................................... 13 Analytical Framework - The Hazan and Rahat Theory ........................................................ 14 Political and Electoral System in the UK ................................................................................. 21 History of Leadership Selection in the UK Conservative Party ............................................... 24 The Magic Circle and the 1922 Committee .......................................................................... 24 Members of Parliament Having the Selection Power ........................................................... 26 Partial Power to the Grass Roots .......................................................................................... 27 Failed Attempts to Change the Rules ................................................................................... 29 Table of Leadership Selections from Churchill to May ........................................................... 31 The Application of the Theory on the Case of Theresa May’s Election .................................. 32 The Candidates ..................................................................................................................... 33 The Elimination Process ....................................................................................................... 36 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 43 References ................................................................................................................................ 46 85 633 characters 5 Introduction The Conservative party was never one of the strongest supporters of the European Union. In 2012 calls for referendum on the relationship with the EU appeared yet again and even though “date and question” was not set right away, the referendum was promised (BBC 2012d). The promise of the referendum was set to be fulfilled after the 2015 general elections. The general elections were won by the Conservatives and the referendum was indeed to be held (Swinford 2015). Nevertheless, Tories1 were not united on the matter, thus officially staying neutral as a party. However, the leadership with David Cameron in lead were campaigning for the “remain” camp. On the other hand, Boris Johnson, former mayor of London, was openly campaigning for the “leave” camp as many other prominent members of the party such as former leader of the Party Ian Duncan Smith. Initially, the date of the EU referendum was set to be held in June 2016. In the referendum British citizens chose to rather leave than to stay. David Cameron the PM2 and leader of the Tory Party decided to resign, even though he received support from both camps to stay in the position. However, Cameron chose to leave and therefore triggered the election of the new Tory leader and consequently the Prime Minister. The list of potential candidates composed of five names in which both camps were represented. After a series of eliminative ballots and one withdrawal, two names were to compete in front of the grass roots members. Nonetheless, the competition was cut short by withdrawal of Andrea Leadsom leaving Theresa May as the only candidate to potentially face the party members and therefore becoming the new leader and Prime Minister of the UK. As previously mentioned, the main aim of this thesis is to use the Hazan and Rahat theory of candidate selection and apply it on leadership selection of Theresa May into the office of the UK Conservative leader and consequently the UK Prime Minister. Therefore, the focus of this thesis is as following: The process of leadership selection in the UK Conservative party of 2016, using the Hazan and Rahat theory of candidate selection. As it is clear from the paper headline, the main focus is on the UK Conservative Party. However, firstly the general theory of intraparty selection will be discussed. That is because there is a need to establish general rules and ways of how parties proceed when selecting their leaders. Afterwards, the attention will be moved to the UK political and electoral system. This 1 Another name for member or supporter of the Conservative Party 2 Short for Prime Minister 6 is important to fully understand the position parties and Prime Ministers have in the system. Next chapter discusses a brief history of the selection processes in the Conservative Party. The following chapter is focused on current rules. In both previously mentioned chapters the players and their roles in the selection will be stressed. All this is necessary to wholly understand the development and forces which may have influenced the last selection. Afterwards the candidate theory created by Hazan and Rahat will come into focus. Each part of this theory is to be examined and explained and afterwards used on the last leadership selection within the UK Conservative Party. 7 Selection of Party Leaders The selection of candidates does not belong among the most favourite topics for political scientists to study and the matter of leadership selection is only small part of that topic. In this thesis I would like to emphasise the importance of this issue. Thus, I believe that by this work I can contribute to the subject matter. First of all, it is necessary to highlight the importance of differentiating between the selection of candidates and those aspiring for the leadership post. A candidate who is aspiring to be the leader may become a leader of the entire country. Furthermore, sometimes a party chooses not only a leader but the prime minister at the same time as well. As an example I shall use the case of the UK Conservative Party which is also focus of this thesis. There were nine Prime Ministers after WWII representing this party and only four of them achieved this position by winning general elections first. The other five came after winning leadership contest within the Party (Kenig, Rahat and Hazan 2013, Denham and O'Hara 2008). Another difference is that the party leader has big authority and influence on the given party such as choosing ministers or on policy making. Additionally, the selectorate differs since there are plenty of different ways of how to select a leader and those ways are discussed below. Moreover, a party leader can be ousted at any time because the candidates who compete in elections are elected on fixed term. To wrap it up, the position of a party leader is more important, thus it deserves more attention and distinction (Kenig, Rahat and Hazan 2013). The importance will be further stressed below. Importance of Given Topic Leadership selection within political parties