Central Texas Turnpike System 2014 Traffic & Revenue Study Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Services Inc. December 30, 2014 CTTS Traffic & Revenue Study December 30, 2014 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 1.1 1.1 Central Texas Turnpike System ....................................................................................................... 1.1 1.2 Study Purpose, Methodology, and History .................................................................................. 1.2 1.3 Organization of the Report ............................................................................................................. 1.3 1.4 Consultant Team .............................................................................................................................. 1.4 2.0 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION NETWORK ................................................................................... 2.1 2.1 CTTS ..................................................................................................................................................... 2.1 2.2 Other Toll Roads in Austin Area ...................................................................................................... 2.3 2.3 Non-Toll Roadway Network in Austin ............................................................................................ 2.4 2.4 Recent and Proposed Key Network Improvements .................................................................. 2.6 2.4.1 2012 – 2013 Key Network Improvements ................................................................. 2.7 2.4.2 2014-2015 Key Network Improvements .................................................................... 2.8 2.4.3 2016 – 2020 Key Network Improvements ...............................................................2.10 2.4.4 2021 – 2030 Key Network Improvements ...............................................................2.13 2.4.5 2031 – 2040 Key Network Improvements ...............................................................2.16 3.0 EXISTING TRAVEL PATTERNS ........................................................................................................ 3.1 3.1 Traffic Volumes .................................................................................................................................. 3.1 3.2 Travel Speeds .................................................................................................................................... 3.7 4.0 TOLL COLLECTION ........................................................................................................................ 4.1 4.1 Methods of Toll Collection .............................................................................................................. 4.1 4.2 Historical and Current Toll Rates .................................................................................................... 4.1 4.3 Policy Regarding Future Rates ....................................................................................................... 4.3 4.4 Future Toll Rates ................................................................................................................................ 4.5 4.5 PBM and Violation Procedures ...................................................................................................... 4.7 4.5.1 Standard Violators........................................................................................................ 4.8 4.5.2 Habitual Violators ......................................................................................................... 4.8 4.6 Customer Service Center Revenues ............................................................................................. 4.9 5.0 HISTORICAL CTTS TOLL TRANSACTIONS AND REVENUE ............................................................ 5.1 5.1 Monthly and Annual Transactions and Revenue ....................................................................... 5.1 5.2 Vehicle Class Distribution ................................................................................................................ 5.5 5.3 Weekday and Seasonal Patterns .................................................................................................. 5.7 5.4 Payment Method Distribution ........................................................................................................ 5.8 5.5 Transaction Payment Status .........................................................................................................5.10 6.0 SOCIOECONOMIC DATA ............................................................................................................ 6.1 6.1 Regional Trends ................................................................................................................................. 6.1 6.1.1 Regional Population .................................................................................................... 6.2 6.1.2 Regional Employment ................................................................................................. 6.7 6.2 Update of TAZ Level Estimates .....................................................................................................6.15 6.2.1 Methodology ..............................................................................................................6.15 6.2.2 TAZ Population & Employment ................................................................................6.18 i CTTS Traffic & Revenue Study December 30, 2014 6.3 Regional Development Trends ....................................................................................................6.21 6.3.1 Housing Trends ............................................................................................................6.21 6.3.2 Austin ............................................................................................................................6.24 6.3.3 Cedar Park ..................................................................................................................6.28 6.3.4 Leander ........................................................................................................................6.28 6.3.5 Georgetown................................................................................................................6.29 6.3.6 Round Rock .................................................................................................................6.30 6.3.7 Hutto .............................................................................................................................6.31 6.3.8 Pflugerville ....................................................................................................................6.31 6.3.9 Manor ...........................................................................................................................6.32 6.3.10 Buda .............................................................................................................................6.32 6.3.11 Kyle ................................................................................................................................6.33 7.0 MODEL VALIDATION AND REFINEMENT ..................................................................................... 7.1 7.1 Travel Demand Model Development .......................................................................................... 7.1 7.1.1 Highway Assignment Process Modifications ........................................................... 7.9 7.2 Model Calibration ............................................................................................................................ 7.9 7.2.1 Speed Calibration ........................................................................................................ 7.9 7.2.2 Aggregate Calibration by Facility Type and Area Type ....................................7.12 7.2.3 Screenline Calibration ...............................................................................................7.13 7.2.4 Calibration of Toll Transactions by Mode and by Payment Method ...............7.18 7.3 Elasticity Analysis .............................................................................................................................7.24 8.0 TRAFFIC & REVENUE FORECASTS ................................................................................................ 8.1 8.1 SH 45 N and Loop 1 .......................................................................................................................... 8.2 8.1.1 SH 45 N and Loop 1 Schematic Traffic Diagrams .................................................. 8.2 8.1.2 SH 45 N and Loop 1 Screenline Analysis .................................................................. 8.8 8.1.3 SH 45 N and Loop 1 Traffic and Revenue Assumptions ......................................8.11 8.1.4 SH 45 N and Loop1 Transactions and Revenue by Paypoint ............................8.12 8.1.5 SH 45 N and Loop 1 Traffic and Revenue Forecasts ...........................................8.14 8.2 SH 130 ................................................................................................................................................8.17 8.2.1 SH 130 Schematic Traffic