Strategic Appraisal United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century Edited by Zalmay Khalilzad, Jeremy Shapiro Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited R Project AIR FORCE The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Strategic appraisal : United States air and space power in the 21st century / edited by Zalmay Khalilzad, Jeremy Shapiro. p. cm. “MR-1314.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-2954-1 1. United States. Air Force. 2. Air power—United States. 3. Astronautics, Military—United States. 4. World politics—21st century. I. Khalilzad, Zalmay. II. Shapiro, Jeremy. UG633 .S7924 2002 358.4'00973—dc21 2002069823 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. © Copyright 2002 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2002 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 102, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE Aerospace power has become the archetypal expression of the U.S. ability to project force in the modern world. Throughout the world, U.S. aerospace power—and thus, the U.S. Air Force (USAF)—plays a critical, and often primary, role in securing U.S. interests, in promot- ing American values, and in protecting human rights. While the USAF has had significant success in employing aerospace power in the recent past, emerging trends in international relations, in tech- nology, and in our own domestic society will create a wide variety of new challenges and new opportunities for U.S. aerospace power. Meeting these challenges and exploiting these opportunities will require careful planning, wise investments, and thoughtful training, as well as difficult cultural adaptations within the USAF. This book identifies many of these challenges and opportunities in a wide vari- ety of issue areas and assesses the degree to which the USAF is pre- pared to meet them. While the work was carried out under the auspices of the Strategy and Doctrine program of RAND’s Project AIR FORCE, which is spon- sored by the U.S. Air Force, this volume draws on the expertise of researchers from across RAND in a variety of related disciplines. The primary audience of this work consists of Air Force leaders and plan- ners, but it should be of interest to others concerned about national security issues. The Strategic Appraisal series is intended to review, for a broad audi- ence, issues bearing on national security and defense planning. Strategic Appraisal: The Changing Role of Information in Warfare analyzed the effects of new information technologies on military iii iv Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century operations. Strategic Appraisal 1997: Strategy and Defense Planning for the 21st Century dealt with the challenges the U.S. military faces in meeting the changing demands made upon it in a changing world. Strategic Appraisal 1996 assessed challenges to U.S. interests around the world, focusing on key nations and regions. The views expressed here are those of the authors. They do not nec- essarily reflect those of RAND or its clients. The research described here was conducted before the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States and the subsequent U.S. campaign against Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups. PROJECT AIR FORCE Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine. CONTENTS Preface ......................................... iii Figures ......................................... xiii Tables.......................................... xvii Acknowledgments................................. xix Abbreviations .................................... xxi Chapter One INTRODUCTION: THE PRICE OF SUCCESS Jeremy Shapiro ................................ 1 What Has Stayed the Same ....................... 2 What Has Changed ............................. 4 Smaller-Scale Contingencies .................... 4 The Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction ......... 5 Emerging Challenges ........................... 6 Emerging Opportunities ......................... 8 Getting Past Success ............................ 11 PART I: THE GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT FOR AEROSPACE POWER ............................ 13 Chapter Two FORCES FOR WHAT? GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT AND AIR FORCE CAPABILITIES Zalmay Khalilzad, David Ochmanek, and Jeremy Shapiro ...................................... 15 The Geopolitical Context ......................... 15 Evolution of the International System .............. 16 v vi Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century U.S. Goals .................................. 29 U.S. Requirements for Military Forces ............... 32 The Maturation of U.S. Aerospace Power: Capabilities of Today’s Forces ........................... 35 Defeating Enemy Air Attacks .................... 35 Destroying Fixed Targets ....................... 35 Destroying Mechanized Ground Forces ............ 37 Information and Its Uses ....................... 38 Survivability ................................ 39 Implications for U.S. Joint Operations ............. 41 Challenges for the USAF ......................... 42 Modernization and Recapitalization ............... 43 Human Capital .............................. 44 Conclusion: Creating Options ..................... 46 References ................................... 46 Chapter Three THE FUTURE OF U.S. COERCIVE AIRPOWER Daniel L. Byman, Matthew C. Waxman, and Jeremy Shapiro ...................................... 51 The American Way of Coercion .................... 54 A Preference for Multilateralism .................. 55 An Intolerance for Casualties .................... 55 Aversion to Civilian Suffering .................... 56 A Preference for and a Belief in Technological Solutions ................................. 57 A Commitment to International Norms ............ 57 Summary................................... 58 Adversary Countercoercive Strategies: A Taxonomy ..... 58 Create Innocent Suffering ...................... 60 Shatter Alliances ............................. 63 Create Counteralliances ........................ 65 Create Actual or Prospective U.S. or Allied Casualties ................................ 66 Play Up Nationalism at Home ................... 69 Threaten Use of WMD ......................... 71 The Future of U.S. Coercive Airpower ............... 74 References ................................... 77 Contents vii PART II: WHERE DOES THE USAF NEED TO GO? ......... 83 Chapter Four MODERNIZING THE COMBAT FORCES: NEAR-TERM OPTIONS Donald Stevens, John Gibson, and David Ochmanek ..... 85 Missions ..................................... 85 Conditions and Constraints ....................... 88 Roles of Air and Space Forces ..................... 91 Modernization—Key Considerations ................ 94 An Aging Fleet ............................... 94 Analytical Approach .......................... 96 Force Mix Alternatives ........................... 96 Approach .................................... 99 Force Mix Recommendations ..................... 105 Fighter-Bomber Mix .......................... 105 Trades Among Fighters ........................ 113 Summary Force Mix Alternatives ................. 117 Cost Sensitivities ............................... 119 Impact of Cost Growth in F-22X and F-22E Programs................................. 120 Impact of Cost Growth in JSF Program ............. 120 SSCs and Ongoing Deployments ................... 123 Force Requirements to Support Deployed Aircraft .... 129 No-Fly and Exclusion Zones ..................... 131 Force Structure Requirements for Ongoing Deployments and SSCs ...................... 135 Force Structure Implications of SSCs .............. 139 Summary .................................... 139 References ................................... 141 Chapter Five SPACE CHALLENGES Bob Preston and John Baker ....................... 143 Current Space Activities ......................... 143 The Civil Space Sector ......................... 144 The Commercial Space Sector ................... 147 The National Security Space Sector ............... 154 World Players ............................... 160 Motivations for Change .......................... 162 viii Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space Power in the 21st Century Bureaucratic and Technological Forcing