CSIS_______________________________ Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 To download further data: CSIS.ORG To contact author: [email protected] Iran's Evolving Military Forces Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy July 2004 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. Cordesman: Iran's Military forces 7/15/2004 Page ii Table of Contents I. IRAN AND THE GULF MILITARY BALANCE: THE “FOUR CORNERED” BALANCING ACT..........1 The Dynamics of the Gulf Military Balance ..........................................................................................................1 DEVELOPMENTS IN THE NORTH GULF ........................................................................................................................2 II. IRAN’S ERRATIC MILITARY MODERNIZATION.......................................................................................9 THE IRANIAN ARMY ...................................................................................................................................................9 THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS CORPS (PASDARAN).................................................................................14 THE QUDS (QODS) FORCES ......................................................................................................................................15 THE BASIJ AND OTHER PARAMILITARY FORCES ......................................................................................................15 THE IRANIAN NAVY .................................................................................................................................................16 THE IRANIAN AIR FORCE..........................................................................................................................................21 DETAILED TRENDS IN IRANIAN FORCES ......................................................................................................23 III. IRAN AND PROLIFERATION ........................................................................................................................34 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. Cordesman: Iran's Military forces 7/15/2004 Page iii List of Figures Figure 1.1 ......................................................................................................................................................................4 Gulf Military Forces in 2004.........................................................................................................................................4 Figure 1.2 ......................................................................................................................................................................6 Northern Gulf Military Expenditures by Country: 1985-2002 ......................................................................................6 Figure 1.3 ......................................................................................................................................................................7 Agreements and Deliveries to Iran and Iraq: 1994-2002..............................................................................................7 Figure 1.4 ......................................................................................................................................................................8 Northern Gulf New Arms Orders by Supplier Country: 1987-2002..............................................................................8 Figure 2.1 ....................................................................................................................................................................25 Iran - Overview............................................................................................................................................................25 Figure 2.2 ....................................................................................................................................................................26 Value of Iranian Arms Deliveries ................................................................................................................................26 Figure 2.3 ....................................................................................................................................................................27 Figure 2.4 ....................................................................................................................................................................29 Iranian Dependence on Decaying Western Supplied Major Weapons........................................................................29 Figure 2.5 ....................................................................................................................................................................31 Can Iran Mass Produce Major New Weapons Systems?.............................................................................................31 Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. I. Iran and the Gulf Military Balance: The “Four Cornered” Balancing Act The Gulf military balance has long been a “four cornered” balancing act between Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the Southern Gulf states, and the power projection forces of the United Kingdom and the United States. Yemen has only limited military power, but is still a significant factor in regional security because of its large population, common borders with Oman and Saudi Arabia, and strategic position at the entrance to the Red Sea. The Dynamics of the Gulf Military Balance There have been many tests of this balance. Egypt attempted to dominate North Yemen by intervening in its civil war during the 1960s, and only left in 1967. South Yemen supported Marxists rebels in Oman in what came to be called the “Dhofar Rebellion.” Iraq invaded Iran in 1980. the most serious tests, however, have come from two rival Northern Gulf powers – Iran and Iraq – have dominated both regional conflicts and the regional arms race since the 1960s. This rivalry led to a bloody war between them during 1980-1988, followed by an Iraqi victory. Iraq’s status as the dominant power, however, was very short lived. In 1990 Iraq invaded Kuwait, and triggered a war with a UN coalition which not only destroyed much of its military power, but which led to more than a decade of UN sanctions and confrontation with the US and its allies. In 2003, a US and British led coalition invaded Iraq, removed the regime of Saddam Hussein, and effectively destroyed Iraq’s armed forces. The end result was to create a major power vacuum in the Gulf whose future impact and implications are now far from clear. The military balance in the Gulf has always been shaped by players from outside the region. First Britain and then the US have effectively counterbalanced the power of both Iran and Iraq. Britain effectively guaranteed the security of the Southern Gulf states until abandoned its dominant military role in the region between 1966 and 1968. The US then turned to Iran as a “pillar” of regional security until the fall of the Shah in 1979 – which led to the Iranian seizure of US diplomats as hostages and a crisis in US-Iranian relations. The US and Europe supported Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War after 1982, when Iranian counteroffensives threatened Iraq’s survival. Kuwait pressured the US into “reflagging” its tankers in 1986, to protect them from Iranian attacks, which led to a brief “tanker war” between the US and Iran during 1987-1988 which crippled part of the Iranian Navy. This situation changed radically in the summer of 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait. The US, Britain, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt led a coalition that liberated Kuwait in 1991, and Iraq was placed under sanctions that continued until 2003 – when the US and Britain led another coalition that invaded Iraq and overthrew the regime of Saddam Hussein. The Southern Gulf states – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – have built up their own military forces. This effort has been led by a massive military investment by Saudi Arabia, the only Southern Gulf state large and wealthy enough to play such a role. Unlike Iran and Iraq, however, the military efforts of the Southern Gulf states were carried out with the knowledge that the US and its allies could provide power projection forces to protect them, and that such protection would almost certainly be forthcoming because of the role the Gulf played in the world’s oil exports and the fact it had more than 60% of the world proven oil reserves. As a result, the military build-up in the Southern Gulf has lacked cooperation and cohesion. Although the Southern Gulf states created a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in 1980 – largely as a reaction to the perceived threat from a revolutionary Iran--the GCC never resulted in more than token military cooperation. Each of the southern Gulf states pursued its own path in creating military forces, often emphasized the purchase of modern major weapons systems that were perceived to provide prestige and a “glitter factor” in terms of regional status. Rivalries and past tensions between the Southern Gulf states prevented serious efforts at developing joint capabilities and interoperability. At the same time, a number of states limited their military efforts because of the fear of coups. The end result was that the Southern Gulf states largely preferred de facto dependence on US