Thesis Title Organised networks in Serbia: Crime control and state capture in a country undergoing democratic transition and EU accession By: Darja Koturovic A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Sheffield School of Law Submission Date 28 February 2019 Abstract This thesis explores whether the extent of criminal networks in Serbia and their impact upon the country as it undergoes EU accession indicates a phenomenon that has been termed ‘state capture’. Through an analysis of Serbia’s stalled democratic transition and its association with the EU accession process, conditions for state capture in the field of crime control are found to have been established. Given recurrent references in international monitoring reports to organised crime as one of the key obstacles to accession, the impact of organised criminal networks on the crime control system is examined to understand their potential to act as captors. For the purpose of this exploration, the effectiveness of state institutions responsible for suppression of organised crime and drug trafficking, conceptualised as a state response network, is investigated. The findings of this research identified particular opportunities and mechanisms of capture, which involve systemic gaps or structural holes in the network of state institutions responsible for crime control. The positioning of these systemic loopholes creates points of arbitrage through a symbiosis of state actors, corruption and criminal networks, which hinders effective suppression of organized crime and eventually leads to state capture. The findings are based on a comprehensive review of official reports, international assessments and elite interviews with a sample of 65 state officials and civil society. Two methodological approaches were combined. First, a content analysis was used to identify the key issues hindering the effectiveness of crime control in this field. The identified issues were subsequently analysed using Social Network Analysis to increase the validity of the findings through quantitative assessment. Social network analysis was implemented in an innovative manner to map the state response network and quantitatively detect potential loopholes in its functioning, not all of which had been fully recognised in their extent or form in the first, qualitative, approach. On the basis of these analyses, this research proposes that state capture can be defined as a set of seemingly inexplicable system deficiencies involving patterns of structural omissions and covert practices that have the potential to disrupt legitimate institutional behaviour and exert influence by using corruption and other forms of personal linkage and exchange. 1 Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................................................ 1 Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................. 6 List of tables ......................................................................................................................................... 7 List of figures ....................................................................................................................................... 8 List of annexes ..................................................................................................................................... 9 Chapter I Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 10 Chapter II Research background – the contextual environment for organised crime in Serbia .............. 15 2.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 15 2.2. Organised crime – a global phenomenon .................................................................................. 15 2.2.1. The crime problem: global policy on the subject of organised crime and trafficking ........... 15 2.2.2. The concept of organized crime: definitions and the question of organisation .................... 17 2.3. Organized crime - key features in Serbia .................................................................................. 24 2.3.1. A brief history of Serbia .................................................................................................... 24 2.3.2. A contextual review of organized crime in Serbia .............................................................. 25 2.3.3. Drug trafficking as a key illicit activity of organized criminal groups – Serbia and the role of the Balkan route .......................................................................................................................... 28 2.4. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................. 34 Chapter III Literature review .............................................................................................................. 36 3.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 36 3.1.1. Scope and definition of terms ............................................................................................ 37 3.2. States in transition and process of EU accession ....................................................................... 38 3.2.1. The process of democratic transition – key concepts and approaches ................................. 38 3.2.2. EU accession – impact and key obstacles to integration ..................................................... 48 3.2.3. Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 54 3.3. State response network in Serbia .............................................................................................. 56 3.3.1. International frameworks affecting the Serbian response and policies - UNTOC, EU, regional levels............................................................................................................................. 56 3.3.2. Serbian specific strategy and policing ................................................................................ 58 3.3.3. Legislative framework – key features and obstacles ........................................................... 61 2 3.3.4. Conclusions – initial outlook of the state response network ................................................ 66 3.4. State capture - has Serbia transited and to what? ....................................................................... 68 3.4.1. Is Serbia trapped in perpetual conversion enabling criminal governance? ........................... 68 3.4.2. State capture – definitions and key features – theoretical framework .................................. 70 3.4.3. State capture and/or crooked states – deviant state functioning as a point of arbitrage enabling criminal networks operations ........................................................................................ 75 3.4.4. Conclusions - the importance of identifying loopholes and/or vulnerabilities enabling state capture in the field of crime control in Serbia .............................................................................. 86 3.5. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................. 89 Chapter IV Methodology .................................................................................................................... 92 4.1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 92 4.2. Research questions and conceptualisation................................................................................. 92 4.3. Methods of analysis ................................................................................................................. 95 4.3.1. Justification of the method ................................................................................................ 95 4.3.2. Rationale for the selection of analysis .............................................................................. 101 4.3.3. Research design .............................................................................................................. 112 4.3.4. Sources of data collection and interview protocol ............................................................ 117 4.4. Analytic procedure ................................................................................................................. 118 4.4.1. Content analysis – Analytic procedure ............................................................................. 118 4.4.2. Social network analysis - Analytic procedure................................................................... 127 4.5. Summary of methodological steps .......................................................................................... 135 4.6. Ethical considerations ............................................................................................................ 136 4.6.1. Access............................................................................................................................. 136 4.6.2.