LB Redbridge Local Plan Transport Evidence March 2017 LB Redbridge Transport Evidence Quality information Prepared by Reviewed by Approved by Abby Bennett Colin Romain Nick Anderson Transport Planner Associate Director Regional Director Kelly Davis Senior Consultant Revision History Revision Revision date Details Authorized Name Position 0 February 2017 Draft for Client Y Nick Anderson Regional Director 1 March 2017 Client Comments Y Nick Anderson Regional Director AECOM LB Redbridge Transport Evidence Prepared for: LB Redbridge Prepared by: AECOM Infrastructure & Environment UK Limited Scott House Alencon Link Basingstoke Hampshire RG21 7PP UK © 2016 AECOM Infrastructure & Environment UK Limited. All Rights Reserved. This document has been prepared by AECOM Infrastructure & Environment UK Limited (“AECOM”) for sole use of our client (the “Client”) in accordance with generally accepted consultancy principles, the budget for fees and the terms of reference agreed between AECOM and the Client. Any information provided by third parties and referred to herein has not been checked or verified by AECOM, unless otherwise expressly stated in the document. No third party may rely upon this document without the prior and express written agreement of AECOM. AECOM LB Redbridge Transport Evidence Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 6 2. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 7 2.1 Background ...................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Quantitative Assessment .................................................................................................................. 7 2.3 Qualitative Assessment .................................................................................................................... 8 2.4 Structure ........................................................................................................................................... 8 3. Local Plan .................................................................................................................................................... 9 3.1 LB Redbridge – Transport & Travel .................................................................................................. 9 3.2 Redbridge Local Plan 2015-2030 ................................................................................................... 10 3.3 Crossrail ......................................................................................................................................... 12 3.4 Existing Studies – Greenbelt Sites ................................................................................................. 12 3.4.1 Billet Road - High Level Transport Study (January 2016) ............................................................... 12 3.4.2 Oakfield and Goodmayes - High Level Transport Study (October 2015) ........................................ 12 4. Methodology .............................................................................................................................................. 14 4.1 Background .................................................................................................................................... 14 4.2 Network .......................................................................................................................................... 14 4.3 Data Collection ............................................................................................................................... 15 4.3.1 Annualisation .................................................................................................................................. 16 4.4 Assessment Scenarios ................................................................................................................... 16 4.4.1 2030 Do Minimum Scenario ........................................................................................................... 17 4.4.2 2030 Do Something Scenario ......................................................................................................... 17 5. Quantitative Assessment ........................................................................................................................... 18 5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 18 5.2 Traffic Growth ................................................................................................................................. 18 5.2.1 Committed Development & Traffic Growth ...................................................................................... 18 5.2.2 TEMPRO Growth Forecasts ........................................................................................................... 19 5.2.3 Committed Development – Traffic Flows ........................................................................................ 19 5.3 Trip Generation ............................................................................................................................... 20 5.3.1 Context ........................................................................................................................................... 20 5.3.2 Residential Trip Rate Derivation, by Accessibility ........................................................................... 20 5.3.3 TRICS Database ............................................................................................................................ 20 5.3.4 Site Specific Data ........................................................................................................................... 21 5.4 Mode Share .................................................................................................................................... 23 5.5 Trip Distribution ............................................................................................................................... 24 5.5.1 Trip Assignment .............................................................................................................................. 27 5.5.2 Development Locations .................................................................................................................. 28 5.6 2030 Do Something ........................................................................................................................ 28 5.7 Spreadsheet Model Findings, by Junction and Link ....................................................................... 29 5.8 Multi-Modal Trips ............................................................................................................................ 32 5.8.1 Multi-Modal Results Summary (Bus & Rail / Underground) ............................................................ 32 6. Qualitative Assessment .............................................................................................................................. 34 6.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 34 6.2 Origin Category: Woodford ............................................................................................................. 35 6.2.1 Development Cluster W1: South Woodford (West) ......................................................................... 35 6.2.2 Development Cluster W2: Chigwell Road, South Woodford ........................................................... 35 6.2.3 Development Cluster W3: South Woodford .................................................................................... 36 6.2.4 Development Cluster W4: Grove Road, South Woodford ............................................................... 36 6.2.5 Development Cluster W5: Woodford, Woodford Green and Woodford Bridge ............................... 37 6.3 Origin Category: Growth Corridor ................................................................................................... 38 6.3.1 Development Cluster GC1: Ilford Hill .............................................................................................. 38 AECOM LB Redbridge Transport Evidence 6.3.2 Development Cluster GC2: Southwest Ilford .................................................................................. 39 6.3.3 Development Cluster GC3: Central Ilford (West) ............................................................................ 39 6.3.4 Development Cluster GC4: Ilford Lane ........................................................................................... 40 6.3.5 Development Cluster GC5: Central Ilford ....................................................................................... 40 6.3.6 Development Cluster GC6: The Exchange, Ley Street & Hainault Street ....................................... 41 6.3.7 Development Cluster GC7: High Road, Ilford (between Griggs Approach and Clements Road) .... 42 6.3.8 Development Cluster GC8: High Road & Retail Park ..................................................................... 42 6.3.9 Development Cluster GC10: High Road (between Cricklefield Place and Green Lane) ................. 43 6.3.10 Development Cluster