AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION PROCEEDINGS of the SOCIAL STATISTICS SECTION 1965 Papers and discussions presented at the 125th Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Sep- tember 8 -11, 1965, under the sponsorship of the Social Statistica Section. Price: $4.00 AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION 810 18th Street, N. W. Washington, D. C. 20006 1965 OFFICERS, AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION BOARD OF DIRECTORS President President -Elect Past President W. Allen Wallis Frederick F. Stephan Albert H. Bowker Vice Presidents (1963-65) (1964 -66) (1965 -67) Frederick Mosteller Robert E. Johnson Paul Meier Directors (1963 -65) (1964 -65) T. A. Bancroft R. E. Bechhofer Ralph A. Bradley Seymour Geisser (1964 -66) (1965 -66) (1965-67) Louis J. Paradiso Conrad Taeuber John E. Freund Executive Director and Secretary- Treasurer Donald C. Riley MEMBERS OF THE COUNCIL Elizabeth W. Angle H. O. Hartley Gladys H. Reynolds Gertrude Bancroft Robert V. Hogg Herbert Rich George E. Bardwell J. Stuart Hunter Robert H. Riffenburgh Herbert Bienstock Dale W. Jorgenson George S. Roche Isadore Blumen Marvin A. Kastenbaum Frederick N. Sass Edward C. Bryant James W. Knowles Robert L. Seidner Cuthbert Daniel Paul F. Krueger Harry Smith, Jr. Arthur M. Dutton Fred C. Leone Alva M. Tuttle Edwin D. Goldfield Margaret E. Martin Martin B. Wilk Irving I. Gringorten Hartley E. McKean Joseph Zubin Morris Hamburg John W. Pratt 1965 SECTION CHAIRMEN Samuel W. Greenhouse Biometrics Section Douglas Greenwald Business and Economic Statistics Section Joseph M. Cameron....Section on Physical and Engineering Sciences Eli S. Marks Social Statistics Section Edwin B. Cox Section on Training FOREWORD This is the eighth annual edition of the Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association. This 1965 issue includes nearly all of the papers and discussions (a few of them in summary form) that were presented in 13 sessions spon- sored by the Social Statistics Section at the Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association in Philadelphia, September 8 -11, 1965. The pages in this volume are mainly photographic reproductions of standard- format type- scripts provided by the authors. Their specific contents have been edited only by the authors, and may still be in a form preliminary to Yecasting for formal publication elsewhere. The Social Statistics Section expresses its gratitude to the authors of the papers, the discussants, and the chairmen of the sessions for their cooperation, as well as to President W. Allen Wallis and to Executive Director Donald C. Riley for their support, and to Office Manager Edgar M. Bisgyer and his competent staff for their work in compiling and arranging for the printing of this volume. Edwin D. Goldfield Proceedings Editor INDEX OF PARTICIPANTS Anscombe, F. J. 161 Moore, Wilbert E. Beattie, Ronald H. Morgan, James N. 239 Bennett, Charles G. 214 Munoz, Raul A. 209 Bruyere, Paul T. 214 Naparst, Stanley 37 Bryant, E. Earl 168 Nelson, Arne B. 168 Campbell, Donald T. 157 Nitzberg, David M. 100 Capobianco, Michael F. 284 Pearl, Robert B. 227 Carlborg, Frank W. 280 Perkins, Walter M. 122 Cartter, A. M. 70 Pollack, Earl S. 107 Chandler, Marjorie 58 Proctor, Charles H. 51 Daly, Joseph F. 242 Rees, Albert 238 Densen, Paul M. 202 Roberts, Harry V. 153 Elinson, Jack 209 Sardy, Hyman 100 Ferriss, Abbott L. 94 Schrader, W. B. 67 Feyerherm, A. M. 268 Sharp, Laure M. 97 Freund, R. J. 272 Sheldon, Eleanor Bernert 144 Goldstein, Harold 89 Siegel, Irving H. 38 Grygier, Tadeusz 2 Silver, Jack 140 Gurney, Margaret 242 Simpson, Jon E. 116 Guthrie, Harold W. 193 Sivin, Irving 202 Hartley, H. O. 258, 272 Solon, Jerry A. 177 Heyl, Arnold A. 64 Sonquist, John A. 179 Jahn, Julius A. 42 Spaeth, Joe L. 81 Jones, Charles D. 122 Stein, Robert L. 218 Kelley, Elizabeth B. 200 Steinberg, Joseph 262 Kruskal, William 154 Taube, Carl A. 168 Levine, Daniel B. 218 Van Arsdol, Maurice D., Jr., 116 Lloyd, J. William 141 Voight, Robert B. 152 Madow, William G. 182 Waksberg, Joseph 227 McCafferty, James A. 14 Weinfeld, Frederic D. 61 McCarthy, Philip J. 197 Wheeler, Stanton 29 Merriam, Ida C. 150, 164 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS-1965 STATISTICS IN CRIMINOLOGY Chairman, MARVIN E. WOLFGANG, University of Pennsylvania Plato's r: A New Formula Based on Old Principles - TADEUSZ GRYGIER, University of Toronto 2 A State Program for Centralized Criminal Statistics - RONALD H. BEATTIE, California Department of Justice 11 Statistical Measurements Used by the Administrative Office of the U. S. Courts - JAMES A. McCAFFERTY, Administrative Office of the United States Courts 14 Criminal Statistics: A Reformulation of the Problem - STANTON WHEELER, Russell Sage Foundation . 29 CONTRIBUTED PAPERS I Chairman, DAVID L. KAPLAN, U. S. Bureau of the Census On the Relationship Between Children's and Parent's Political Preferences ()Abstract) - STANLEY NAPARST, University of California, Berkeley 37 Distribution of Patents According to Number of Inventors - IRVING H. SIEGEL, The W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research 38 The Statistical Design and Analysis of an Experiment to Measure the Effectiveness and Costs of a Health and Welfare Program - JULIUS A. JAHN, University of Pennsylvania 42 Variations in Response Errors Induced by Changing Instructions to Enumerators - CHARLES H. PROCTOR, North Carolina State University... 51 III THE EDUCATION EXPLOSION: ITS MEASUREMENT AND MANAGEMENT Chairman, ARNOLD A. HEYL, U. S. Office of Education Educational Output by Levels, Kinds, and Numbers - MARJORIE O. CHANDLER, U. S. Office of Education 58 Measurement of Educational Quality: Summary and Prognosis - FREDERIC D. WEINFELD, U. S. Office of Education 61 Operations Research in Education - ARNOLD A. HEYL, U. S. Office of Education 64 Discussion - W. B. SCHRADER, Educational Testing Service 67 IV HUMAN RESOURCES AND ADVANCED EDUCATION Chairman, JOHN K. FOLGER, National Academy of Sciences The Supply and Demand of College Teachers - A. M. CARTTER, American Council on Education 70 Patterns of Change in the Long -Run Career Fields of June, 1961, College Graduates - JOE L. SPAETH, National Opinion Research Center. 81 Methods of Projecting Supply and Demand in High -Level Occupations - HAROLD GOLDSTEIN, U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 89 Discussion - ABBOTT L. FERRISS, National Science Foundation 94 Discussion - LAURE M. SHARP, Bureau of Social Science Research 97 V MATCHING OF CENSUS AND VITAL RECORDS IN SOCIAL AND HEALTH RESEARCH; PROBLEMS AND RESULTS Chairman, MONROE G. SIRKEN, National Center for Health Statistics The Methodology of Computer Linkage of Health and Vital Records - DAVID M. NITZBERG, Harvard University and HYMAN SARDY, Brooklyn College.. 100 Use of Census Matching for Study of Psychiatric Admission Rates - EARL S. POLLACK, National Institute of Mental Health 107 The Matching of Census and Probation Department Records Systems - JON E. SIMPSON and MAURICE D. VAN ARSDOL, JR., University of Southern California 116 Matching for Census Coverage Checks - WALTER M. PERKINS and CHARLES D. JONES, U. S. Bureau of the Census. 122 Discussion - JACK SILVER, U. S. Bureau of the Census 140 Discussion - J. WILLIAM LLOYD, National Cancer Institute 141 VI NEEDED DEVELOPMENTS IN SOCIAL STATISTICS Chairman, FREDERICK F. STEPHAN, Princeton University Monitoring Social Change: A Conceptual and Programmatic Statement - WILBERT E. MOORE and ELEANOR BERNERT SHELDON, Russell Sage Foundation 144 Discussion - IDA C. MERRIAM, Social Security Administration 150 Discussion - ROBERT B. VOIGHT, U. S. Bureau of the Census 152 VII STATISTICAL COVERAGE IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCE ENCYCLOPEDIA Chairman, W. ALLEN WALLIS, University of Rochester Bayesian Inference in the International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences (Abstract) - HARRY V. ROBERTS, University of Chicago 153 Statistics in the International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences - WILLIAM KRUSKAL, University of Chicago 154 Quasi -Experimental Design - DONALD T. CAMPBELL, Northwestern University 157 On Writing Statistical Articles for the International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences - F. J. ANSCOMBE, Yale University 161 VIII SOME STATISTICS ON THE OLDER POPULATION Chairman, MARGARET G. REID, University of Chicago Preview of the SSA's Statistical Program on Health Care of the Aged - IDA C. MERRIAM, Social Security Administration 164 Health Characteristics of Patients in Nursing and Personal Care Homes - E. EARL BRYANT, ARNE B. NELSON and CARL A. TAUBE, National Center for Health Statistics 168 Discussion - JERRY A. SOLON, University of Pittsburgh 177 Discussion - JOHN A. SONQUIST, University of Michigan 179 IX RECENT RESEARCH ON RESPONSE ERRORS Chairman, ROBERT FERBER, University of Illinois On Some Aspects of Response Error Measurement - WILLIAM G. MADOW, Stanford Research Institute 182 Some Methodological Issues in Validation Studies - HAROLD W. GUTHRIE, University of Illinois 193 Discussion - PHILIP J. McCARTHY, Cornell University 197 vii X PROBLEMS OF DESIGN IN HEALTH DEPARTMENT SPONSORED ILLNESS SURVEYS Chairman, PHILIP S. LAWRENCE, National Center for Health Statistics Baltimore Health Survey - ELIZABETH B. KELLEY, Baltimore City Health Department 200 The Sample Design of the New York City Population Health Survey - IRVING SIVIN and PAUL M. DENSEN, New York City Health Department.... 202 The Puerto Rico Master Sample Survey of Health and Welfare - RAUL A. MUNOZ, Puerto Rico Department of Health and JACK ELINSON, Columbia University 209 Design and Procedures in the Hawaii Health Surveillance Program -