The United Nations University is an organ of the United Nations estab- lished by the General Assembly in 1972 to be an international community of scholars engaged in research, advanced training, and the dissemination of knowledge related to the pressing global problems of human survival, development, and welfare. Its activities focus mainly on the areas of peace and governance, environment and sustainable development, and science and technology in relation to human welfare. The University operates through a worldwide network of research and postgraduate training centres, with its planning and coordinating headquarters in Tokyo. The United Nations University Press, the publishing division of the UNU, publishes scholarly and policy-oriented books and periodicals in areas related to the University’s research. Crucibles of hazard: Mega-cities and disasters in transition Crucibles of hazard: Mega-cities and disasters in transition Edited by James K. Mitchell United Nations a University Press TOKYO u NEW YORK u PARIS ( The United Nations University, 1999 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations University. United Nations University Press The United Nations University, 53-70, Jingumae 5-chome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo, 150-8925, Japan Tel: (03) 3599-2811 Fax: (03) 3406-7345 E-mail: [email protected] http://www.unu.edu United Nations University Office in North America 2 United Nations Plaza, Room DC2-1462-70, New York, NY 10017 USA Tel: (212) 963-6387 Fax: (212) 371-9454 E-mail: [email protected] United Nations University Press is the publishing division of the United Nations University. Cover design by Jean-Marie Antenen, Geneva Typeset by Asco Typesetters, Hong Kong Printed in the United States of America UNUP-987 ISBN 92-808-0987-3 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Crucibles of hazard : mega-cities and disasters in transition / edited by James K. Mitchell. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 9280809873 (pbk.) 1. Disaster relief. 2. Metropolitan areas. 3. Disasters. 4. Natural disasters. 5. Emergency management. I. Mitchell, James K., 1943– HV553 .C78 1999 363.3400917302–dc21 99-6054 CIP Contents Acknowledgements ......................................... vii Listoftables,figures,andphotographs........................ ix 1 Introduction James K. Mitchell ..................................... 1 2 Natural disasters in the context of mega-cities James K. Mitchell ..................................... 15 3 Urbanization and disaster mitigation in Tokyo Yoshio Kumagai and Yoshiteru Nojima.................. 56 4 Flood hazard in Seoul: A preliminary assessment Kwi-Gon Kim ........................................ 92 5 Environmental hazards in Dhaka Saleemul Huq ........................................ 119 6 Natural and anthropogenic hazards in the Sydney sprawl: Isthecitysustainable? John Handmer ....................................... 138 v vi CONTENTS 7 Disaster response in London: A case of learning constrained by history and experience Dennis J. Parker...................................... 186 8 Lima, Peru: Underdevelopment and vulnerability to hazards in the city of the kings Anthony Oliver-Smith ................................. 248 9 Social vulnerability to disasters in Mexico City: An assessment method Sergio Puente ........................................ 295 10 Natural hazards of the San Francisco Bay mega-city: Trial by earthquake, wind, and fire Rutherford H. Platt ................................... 335 11 There are worse things than earthquakes: Hazard vulnerability and mitigation capacity in Greater Los Angeles Ben Wisner .......................................... 375 12 Environmental hazards and interest group coalitions: Metropolitan Miami after hurricane Andrew William D. Solecki .................................... 428 13 Findings and conclusions James K. Mitchell ..................................... 473 Postscript: The role of hazards in urban policy at the millennium James K. Mitchell ..................................... 503 Appendices................................................ 509 Contributors............................................... 514 Index..................................................... 515 Acknowledgements Edited volumes are, by their nature, dependent on the contributions of many people, but this one has drawn on the work of an especially wide range of collaborators in addition to the participating authors. A large debt of gratitude is owed to the United Nations University (Tokyo), especially in the persons of Roland Fuchs, former Vice Rector, who encouraged the project’s initial stages, and Juha Uitto, a young Finnish geographer who coordinated it. Members of the International Geo- graphical Union’s Study Group on the Disaster Vulnerability of Mega- cities also played a vital role. Several were participants in the 1994 Tokyo conference on which this book is based and later became founding members of the Study Group’s steering committee. Rutgers University graduate studentsenrolledinseminarsonnatural hazards during 1993, 1994, and 1996 deserve special mention. Many con- ducted their own case-studies of disaster-susceptible mega-cities, which helped to inform chapter 13. The following were particularly helpful: Roger Balm, Joe Center, Mike Craghan, Marla Emery, Ruth Gilmore, Jojo Hardoy, Ted Kilian, Lisa Lacourse, Juliana Maantay, Sudha Maheshwari, Elaine Matthews, Anastassia Mikhailova, Mariana Mossler, Karen Nichols, Karen Patterson, Lena Raberg, Bruce Ramsay, Karlene Samuels, Lisa Vandermark, and Doracie Zoleta-Nantes. Colleagues in a wide variety of organizations and venues served as audiences for early drafts and provided valuable inputs. These included: the Hazards Spe- cialty Group of the Association of American Geographers; the annual vii viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Hazards Workshops of the Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center (Boulder, Colorado); a special session of the 1995 meeting of the Institute of British Geographers; the International Sym- posium on Urban Growth and Natural Hazards (Clermont-Ferrand, France), and the First International Earthquakes and Megacities Work- shop (Seeheim, Germany). Maria Steppanen and C. Emdad Haque were external readers of manuscripts, supplied background materials, and added helpful local details that have been incorporated into case-study chapters. Scott Campbell supplied a key background paper and thought-provoking com- ments. Mike Siegel of the Rutgers University Cartography Laboratory oversaw the preparation or redrawing of maps and illustrations. All of these, and many others, have tried to keep me from error. If I have committed few, theirs is the praise; otherwise the flaws are my own. List of tables, figures, and photographs Tables 1.1 Recentnaturaldisasterlossesinmega-cities.............. 2 1.2 Profilesofcase-studycities............................. 5 2.1 The world’s 20 largest metropolitan areas ranked by pop- ulation,estimatedfor1995............................. 29 3.1 Disaster countermeasures and major natural disasters in Japan, 1868–1993 ..................................... 70 3.2 ShelterbasesintheKotoDeltaDistrict.................. 85 4.1 FlooddamageinSeoul,1960–1991...................... 93 4.2 Population and area of Seoul, 1961–1991 . ............... 96 4.3 Land-use changes in Seoul City, 1979–1991 .............. 98 4.4 Land-usechangesinSeoulRegion,1979–1991............ 98 4.5 Centralization of functions in Seoul, 1989 . ............... 99 4.6 ElevationzonesinSeoulwards......................... 104 4.7 DistancefromHanRiverinSeoulwards................. 106 4.8 Distributionoffloodhazardzonesbyward............... 107 4.9 Flooddamageinexposedareas,1984,1987,and1990..... 108 4.10 Results of simple regression analysis of green space and flood losses, 1980–1991 . .............................. 111 4.11 The estimated impact of green space on flood risks, 1980– 2010................................................. 113 ix x LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES, AND PHOTOGRAPHS 4.12 Costs of rehabilitating flood damage..................... 115 5.1 Population, area, and density in Dhaka city, 1951–2025 .... 121 5.2 VehicularmodesonDhaka’sroads...................... 128 6.1 HazardsinSydney.................................... 153 6.2 Somesignificantepisodes.............................. 153 7.1 Selected historic disasters in London or affecting London, priorto1900......................................... 190 7.2 Notable hazard events in the London region, after 1900 . 194 7.3 Three categories of hazard affecting the London mega-city 208 7.4 Estimated changes in major hazard factors for hazards affecting London, 1945–2045 ........................... 232 7.5 Contrasting values affecting hazard management in London 237 8.1 Population growth of Lima, 1614–1990 . ............... 255 8.2 The primacy of Lima in Peru, 1989 ...................... 269 8.3 DisastersinLima..................................... 270 8.4 The share of industrial value, by sector, produced in metro- politanLima......................................... 282 9.1 Population of the megalopolis of Mexico, 1970–1990 ...... 298 9.2 Rateofgrowthofurbanization,1900–1990............... 301 9.3 Population growth of the Central Region of the megalopolis ofMexico,1980–1990................................. 302 9.4 National and Mexico City’s gross national product, by eco- nomicsector,1940–1980............................... 303 9.5 Main catastrophic earthquakes during the twentieth