The Profile of Human Rights Violations in Timor-Leste, 1974-1999 A Report by the Benetech Human Rights Data Analysis Group to the Commission on Reception, Truth and Reconciliation of Timor-Leste. Romesh Silva and Patrick Ball Date of Publication: 9 February 2006 Romesh Silva and Patrick Ball designed and conducted the statistical analysis and wrote this report. Many Benetech colleagues assisted with this work. Scott Weikart wrote the code to clean datasets, standardize names, de-duplicate datasets and cross-link datasets (sometimes human-assisted, sometimes fully-automated), and he wrote sections of the methodology discussion; Ken Ward wrote the original databases for all three projects; Jana Dudukovic performed hand-matching and hand-cleaning in Palo Alto and in Timor-Leste, and she edited sections of the methodology section; Rafe Kaplan managed the transitions among databases and "flattened" the data to prepare it for analysis; Justin Fisher designed the sampling strategy for the RMS; Sarah Staveteig conducted background research on Indonesian censuses and recoded and organized the displacement data; and Jane Simchuk and Jeff Klingner prepared the report for publication. In addition, Jana Asher designed the cognitive interviewing component of the RMS questionnaire and provided initial training to the interviewers; Gerry van Klinken had the original idea for the GCD; and Susana Barnes supervised the data coding and data entry teams for all three aspects of the project. The authors are deeply grateful to our advisers and reviewers who improved our work immeasurably, including Professor David Banks (Duke University), Professor Claes Cassel (Statistics Sweden), Dr Michael Cohen (US Department of Transportation), Dr. Peggy Jennings (Women's Rights International), Richard Öhrvall (Statistics Sweden), Dr. Fritz Scheuren (National Opinion Research Center and American Statistical Association), Professor Herbert F. Spirer (University of Connecticut and Columbia University), William Seltzer (Senior Research Scholar, Fordham University, and American Statistical Association), and Dr. Shana Swiss (Women's Rights International). This project was funded in part by a subcontract from CAVR to Benetech with funds from the European Union. The authors thank the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, The Oak Foundation, and the Packard Humanities Institute, all of whom provide core support to the Benetech Human Rights Program that was used to complete this project. The authors retain sole responsibility for the opinions and analysis expressed here, and any errors are theirs alone. The materials contained herein represent the opinions of the authors and editors and should not be construed to be the view of the Benetech Initiative, any of Benetech's constituent projects, the Benetech Board of Directors or the donors to Benetech. This report should be cited as: Silva, Romesh and Patrick Ball, "The Profile of Human Rights Violations in Timor-Leste, 1974-1999." A Report by the Benetech Human Rights Data Analysis Group to the Commission on Reception, Truth and Reconciliation. 9 February 2006. Available online at http://www.hrdag.org/timor. Copyright © 2006 by The Benetech Initiative 480 S. California Ave., Suite 201 Palo Alto, CA 94306-1609 Certain rights are granted under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike license, available on the web at: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/1.0/legalcode The license terms are summarized here: Attribution: The licensor permits others to copy, distribute, display, and perform the work. In return, licensees must give the original author credit. Noncommercial: The licensor permits others to copy, distribute, display, and perform the work. In return, licensees may not use the work for commercial purposes, unless they get the licensor's permission. Share Alike: The licensor permits others to distribute derivative works only under a license identical to the one that governs the licensor's work. Contact Information: The Benetech Initiative tel: +1 650-475-5440 fax: +1 650-475-1066 Email: [email protected] Web: http://www.benetech.org i Table of Contents 0. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................... 1 0.1 Summary of Key Findings................................................................................................................................1 0.1.1 Fatal Violations ..........................................................................................................................................1 0.1.2 Displacements.............................................................................................................................................2 0.1.3 Non-Fatal Violations ..................................................................................................................................2 0.2 Overview of the Commission’s Information Management and Data Collection Methods .........................3 0.3 Historical Violation Estimates in East Timor and Their Limitations ..........................................................4 0.3.1 Historical Estimates of the Conflict-related Death Toll in East Timor (1974-1999)..................................4 0.3.2 Previous evidence of forced migration and displacement ..........................................................................6 0.3.3 Non-Fatal Violations in East Timor ...........................................................................................................6 1. ANALYSIS OF THE TOTAL EXTENT, PATTERN, TREND AND LEVELS OF RESPONSIBILITY FOR FATAL VIOLATIONS & DISPLACEMENT IN TIMOR- LESTE, 1974-1999 ................................................................................................. 6 1.1 Background and Overview of Statistical Analysis of Fatal Violations.........................................................6 1.2 Objectives of Analysis.......................................................................................................................................8 1.3 Overview of Data and Methods .......................................................................................................................8 1.4 Estimates of Killings, Deaths due to Hunger and Illness, and Displacement...............................................9 1.4.1 Killings .......................................................................................................................................................9 1.4.2 Deaths due to hunger and illness ..............................................................................................................12 1.4.3 Displacement ............................................................................................................................................15 1.5 Descriptive statistical Analysis of Fatal Violations Reported to the Commission.....................................17 1.5.1 The Reported Pattern of Killings and Disappearances of Non-Combatants Over Time...........................18 1.5.2 The Reported Pattern of Killings and Disappearances of Non-Combatants Over Space..........................20 1.5.3 The Reported Pattern of Killings and Disappearances of Non-Combatants Over Time & Space ............22 1.5.4 The Pattern of Reported Killings and Disappearances of Non-Combatants against Individual and Group Victims...................................................................................................................................................23 1.5.5 The Reported Pattern of Killings and Disappearances of Non-Combatants Across Demographic Characteristics and Political Affiliation of Victims ...............................................................................26 1.5.6 The Reported Pattern of Killings and Disappearances of Non-Combatants by Attributed Institutional Responsibility.........................................................................................................................................31 1.5.7 The Association between Conflict-related deaths and Periods of Detention............................................32 2. NON-FATAL VIOLATIONS ................................................................................... 36 2.1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................36 2.2 Overview of Statistical findings on Non-fatal violations..............................................................................36 2.3 In-depth Descriptive Statistical Analysis of non-fatal violations ................................................................39 2.3.1 The Nature of the Narrative Text-based Data Sources .............................................................................39 2.3.2 Overall Distribution of Reported Non-fatal Violations ............................................................................44 2.3.3 The three phases of large-scale violence in East Timor............................................................................47 2.3.4 Variations in reported non-fatal abuses across space ...............................................................................50 ii 2.3.5 Non-Fatal Violations over Time and Space..............................................................................................53 2.3.6 Age-Sex Victim Demographics of Reported Non Fatal Violations..........................................................54