Foresight The Manual This manual has been compiled from several published sources by the UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence. UNDP partners with people at all levels of society to help build nations that can withstand crisis, and drive and sustain the kind of growth that improves the quality of life for everyone. On the ground in more than 170 countries and territories, we offer global perspective and local insight to help empower lives and build resilient nations. The Global Centre for Public Service Excellence is UNDP’s catalyst for new thinking, strategy and action in the area of public service, promoting innovation, evidence, and collaboration. Disclaimer The analysis and policy recommendations in this publication do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations, including UNDP, or the UN Member States. Cover image Dawn Yip leads a foresight exercise at the UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence in Singapore in November 2014. © UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Printed on 100% recycled paper FORESIGHT: THE MANUAL Contents This manual has been compiled from several published sources by the UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence. Foresight, Resilience and Sustainable Development ...................................................... 3 UNDP partners with people at all levels of society to Foresight Applications for Development ......................................................................... 5 help build nations that can withstand crisis, and drive Strategic Foresight ...................................................................................................................... 5 and sustain the kind of growth that improves the quality of life for everyone. On the ground in more Participatory Foresight ............................................................................................................... 5 than 170 countries and territories, we offer global perspective and local insight to help empower lives and ‘Revolutionary’ Foresight ........................................................................................................... 6 build resilient nations. Transformative Foresight ........................................................................................................... 6 The Global Centre for Public Service Excellence is UNDP’s catalyst for new thinking, strategy and action Doing Foresight Well .......................................................................................................... 8 in the area of public service, promoting innovation, Hyperbole, Pretext and Reality .................................................................................................. 8 evidence, and collaboration. Thinking about the Future vs. Futures ...................................................................................... 8 Disclaimer Who to invite? .............................................................................................................................. 8 The analysis and policy recommendations in this publication do not necessarily represent those of the Foresight, insight, action ............................................................................................................ 9 United Nations, including UNDP, or the UN Member States. Methods and Approaches ................................................................................................ 10 Cover image Key Concepts .................................................................................................................... 11 §. Black swans .................................................................................................................................................... 11 Dawn Yip leads a foresight exercise at the UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence in Singapore in §. Cognitive bias ................................................................................................................................................ 11 November 2014. © UNDP Global Centre for Public §. Cognitive dissonance ................................................................................................................................. 11 Service §. Complexity ..................................................................................................................................................... 11 §. Cross-cutting issues .................................................................................................................................... 11 §. Design thinking ............................................................................................................................................ 11 §. Experimentation and prototyping ........................................................................................................ 11 §. Interdependence ......................................................................................................................................... 11 §. Path dependency ......................................................................................................................................... 12 §. Resilience ........................................................................................................................................................ 12 §. Retrospective coherence .......................................................................................................................... 12 §. Signposts ........................................................................................................................................................ 12 §. Systems thinking .......................................................................................................................................... 12 §. Unknown unknowns .................................................................................................................................. 12 §. Whole-of-Government (WG) .................................................................................................................... 12 §. Wicked problems ......................................................................................................................................... 12 Institutional Foresight ..................................................................................................... 13 Visioning ................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Forecasting .............................................................................................................................................................. 14 Backcasting .............................................................................................................................................................. 15 Roadmapping ......................................................................................................................................................... 16 Agent-based Modelling (ABM) ......................................................................................................................... 17 Management by discovery ................................................................................................................................. 18 1 Windtunnelling ...................................................................................................................................................... 19 Stress-testing ........................................................................................................................................................... 20 Environmental / Horizon Scanning ................................................................................................................. 21 STEEP analysis ......................................................................................................................................................... 21 Text mining .............................................................................................................................................................. 22 Wild cards and weak signals .............................................................................................................................. 24 Scenario planning / building ............................................................................................................................. 25 Trend impact analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 27 Drivers analysis ....................................................................................................................................................... 28 Futures Wheel ......................................................................................................................................................... 29 Relevance Trees ...................................................................................................................................................... 30 Morphological analysis ........................................................................................................................................ 31 Heuristics .................................................................................................................................................................