Page 1 Scottish Political Monitor April 2021 6 Apr 2021 Table 1 SP_VOTE1a/b/c. CONSTITUENCY - COMBINED VOTING INTENTION - ALL In elections for the Scottish Parliament you have two votes. Your first vote is for a member to represent the constituency. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?/Which party are you most inclined to support? Base : All Total Gender Identity Age Social class Work status Work Sector Qualifications UnW Total Work Work 65 55 -ing -ing Not Degree or or full part work Priv Pub- No Other or Male Female 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 more 16-34 35-54 more AB C1 C2 DE ABC1 C2DE time time -ing -ate lic quals quals higher Total Unweighted Total 1038 485 553 112 131 176 145 197 276 243 321 473 254 384 191 171 638 362 418 138 479 284 233 146 538 326 1038 Weighted Total 1038 498 540 120 178 153 184 165 237 298 337 402 223 309 185 284 531 469 469 109 457 418 137 159 554 299 1038 Total Voting (sub-base) 933 445 488 107 143 134 170 154 223 250 304 378 209 275 169 247 483 415 426 97 408 384 117 148 492 272 936 Scottish Conservative and Unionist 176 94 82 10 10 19 29 40 68 20 48 108 40 53 32 41 93 73 69 19 87 74 15 32 93 46 189 19% 21% 17% 9% 7% 14% 17% 26% 31% 8% 16% 29% 19% 19% 19% 17% 19% 18% 16% 20% 21% 19% 12% 22% 19% 17% 20% Scottish Labour 175 79 96 20 16 23 44 29 43 36 67 72 56 47 26 41 103 67 92 13 69 81 20 28 85 55 174 19% 18% 20% 19% 11% 17% 26% 19% 19% 14% 22% 19% 27% 17% 15% 17% 21% 16% 22% 14% 17% 21% 17% 19% 17% 20% 19% Scottish Liberal Democrats 48 19 29 2 1 4 9 16 17 2 13 33 16 12 8 11 28 19 18 6 25 17 5 6 21 21 57 5% 4% 6% 2% * 3% 6% 10% 7% 1% 4% 9% 7% 5% 5% 4% 6% 5% 4% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 8% 6% Scottish National Party (SNP) 496 233 263 66 108 80 83 69 88 175 163 157 93 151 98 139 245 237 229 59 207 200 73 73 278 135 476 53% 52% 54% 62% 76% 60% 49% 44% 39% 70% 54% 41% 45% 55% 58% 56% 51% 57% 54% 60% 51% 52% 62% 50% 56% 50% 51% Scottish Green Party 23 15 9 6 4 4 3 - 5 10 8 5 4 6 4 8 9 12 9 * 14 5 4 5 11 8 26 3% 3% 2% 6% 3% 3% 2% - 2% 4% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% * 3% 1% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% Independent candidate - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - UKIP - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Reform UK/The Brexit Party 4 3 1 - - 2 1 - - - 4 - - 2 1 - 2 1 4 - - 4 - 1 - 2 3 * 1% * - - 2% 1% - - - 1% - - 1% 1% - * * 1% - - 1% - 1% - 1% * Independence for Scotland (ISP) 1 1 - - - - - - 1 - - 1 - 1 - - 1 - - - 1 - - 1 - - 1 * * - - - - - - * - - * - * - - * - - - * - - 1% - - * All for Unity 2 1 1 - 1 - - - 1 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 - - 2 - - - 1 1 2 * * * - 1% - - - * 1% - * - * - 1% * * - - * - - - * * * Other 9 2 7 3 3 2 1 1 1 5 2 1 - 2 - 5 2 5 5 - 3 4 1 1 4 3 8 1% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% * * * 2% 1% * - 1% - 2% * 1% 1% - 1% 1% 1% * 1% 1% 1% Outside voting base - Undecided/Don't know 75 36 40 12 21 15 9 8 10 33 24 18 9 28 9 28 37 38 31 6 38 24 13 7 43 22 74 7% 7% 7% 10% 12% 10% 5% 5% 4% 11% 7% 5% 4% 9% 5% 10% 7% 8% 7% 6% 8% 6% 9% 4% 8% 7% 7% - Refused 9 6 4 1 3 3 2 - 1 4 5 1 3 3 * 2 6 2 5 1 3 5 1 - 7 1 8 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% - * 1% 1% * 1% 1% * 1% 1% * 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% * 1% - Would not vote 20 11 9 - 11 1 3 2 3 11 4 6 2 4 6 8 6 14 7 4 8 5 5 5 11 4 20 2% 2% 2% - 6% 1% 2% 1% 1% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 3% 1% 3% 1% 4% 2% 1% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2% Respondent type : General Public - age 16+ living in Scotland Fieldwork Dates : Monday 29th March to Sunday 4th April 2021 Source : Ipsos MORI Scotland (JN: 20-089701) Holyrood_PolitM_clientWAVE3_tabs_Final1. Page 2 Scottish Political Monitor April 2021 6 Apr 2021 Table 2 SP_VOTE1a/b/c. CONSTITUENCY - COMBINED VOTING INTENTION - ALL In elections for the Scottish Parliament you have two votes. Your first vote is for a member to represent the constituency. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?/Which party are you most inclined to support? Base : All Total Scottish Parliament Region Tenure Country of birth UnW Total High- Mid lands Scot North and -land East South West Cent Glas Is- and Scot Scot Scot -ral -gow lands Lothian Fife -land -land -land Owner occupier Renter Scotland Elsewhere Total Unweighted Total 1038 121 134 84 174 117 133 142 133 755 205 880 155 1038 Weighted Total 1038 123 135 86 153 128 146 133 133 672 288 880 155 1038 Total Voting (sub-base) 933 104 124 76 132 115 130 124 129 625 244 811 121 936 Scottish Conservative and Unionist 176 21 13 17 22 24 26 30 22 147 22 143 32 189 19% 21% 11% 22% 17% 21% 20% 24% 17% 24% 9% 18% 27% 20% Scottish Labour 175 28 27 8 27 17 18 23 27 125 39 152 23 174 19% 27% 22% 10% 20% 15% 14% 19% 21% 20% 16% 19% 19% 19% Scottish Liberal Democrats 48 1 5 14 14 2 1 6 4 38 8 35 13 57 5% 1% 4% 19% 10% 2% 1% 5% 3% 6% 3% 4% 11% 6% Scottish National Party (SNP) 496 50 66 37 62 69 82 60 70 296 158 451 44 476 53% 48% 53% 49% 47% 60% 63% 48% 55% 47% 65% 56% 36% 51% Scottish Green Party 23 4 7 - 3 - 1 4 5 11 9 20 4 26 3% 4% 5% - 2% - 1% 3% 4% 2% 4% 2% 3% 3% Independent candidate - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - UKIP - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Reform UK/The Brexit Party 4 - 1 - 1 - 1 - - 2 1 4 - 3 * - 1% - 1% - 1% - - * * * - * Independence for Scotland (ISP) 1 - 1 - - - - - - - 1 1 - 1 * - 1% - - - - - - - * * - * All for Unity 2 - 2 - - - - - - 1 - 2 - 2 * - 1% - - - - - - * - * - * Other 9 - 1 - 5 3 - 1 - 4 4 4 5 8 1% - 1% - 3% 2% - * - 1% 2% * 4% 1% Outside voting base - Undecided/Don't know 75 16 9 6 16 11 8 5 5 34 29 47 26 74 7% 13% 7% 7% 10% 8% 5% 4% 4% 5% 10% 5% 17% 7% - Refused 9 2 1 - 2 2 2 - - 4 4 7 3 8 1% 2% 1% - 2% 2% 1% - - 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% - Would not vote 20 1 2 4 2 * 7 4 - 9 10 15 5 20 2% 1% 1% 4% 2% * 5% 3% - 1% 4% 2% 3% 2% Respondent type : General Public - age 16+ living in Scotland Fieldwork Dates : Monday 29th March to Sunday 4th April 2021 Source : Ipsos MORI Scotland (JN: 20-089701) Holyrood_PolitM_clientWAVE3_tabs_Final1. Page 3 Scottish Political Monitor April 2021 6 Apr 2021 Table 3 SP_VOTE1a/b/c. CONSTITUENCY - COMBINED VOTING INTENTION - ALL In elections for the Scottish Parliament you have two votes. Your first vote is for a member to represent the constituency. If there were elections to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, how would you use your first vote?/Which party are you most inclined to support? Base : All Voting intention (SP) Voting intention (SP) Voting intention Past vote (SP 2016) Past vote (EU Referendum, Total Constituency List (Indyref2) Constituency Past vote (2019 General Election) Past vote (Indyref 2014) 2016) UnW Total Not vote/ too Not young vote/ /not too Con Lab LD SNP Con Lab LD SNP Green Alba Yes No Con Lab LD SNP Con Lab LD SNP Yes No Scot' Remain Leave young Total Unweighted Total 1038 189 174 57 476 192 169 63 369 104 19 454 493 170 148 58 430 198 161 57 348 426 480 112 659 236 122 1038 Weighted Total 1038 176 175 48 496 180 176 52 381 105 22 483 459 155 151 43 436 187 158 45 348 447 433 133 634 236 137 1038 Total Voting (sub-base) 933 176 175 48 496 176 170 50 376 101 20 454 407 151 144 40 423 182 151 42 336 419 387 112 590 208 112 936 Scottish Conservative and Unionist 176 176 - - - 144 10 9 - 3 1 2 172 131 9 8 7 148 5 3 2 25 144 6 76 91 7 189 19% 100% - - - 82% 6% 18% - 3% 5% * 42% 87% 6% 19% 2% 81% 3% 8% 1% 6% 37% 5% 13% 44% 6% 20% Scottish Labour 175 - 175 - - 21 132 6 5 5 - 24 138 10 109 3 14 21 102 8 6 23 127 21 130 23 15 174 19% - 100% - - 12% 78% 12% 1% 5% - 5% 34% 7% 76% 9% 3% 11% 68% 19% 2% 5% 33% 19% 22% 11% 13% 19% Scottish Liberal Democrats 48 - - 48 - 6 6 31 - 4 - 4 41 4 5 25 6 5 4 25 1 6 38 5 37 6 3 57 5% - - 100% - 3% 3% 62% - 4% - 1% 10% 3% 4% 62% 1% 3% 3% 58% * 1% 10% 4% 6% 3% 3% 6% Scottish National Party (SNP) 496 - - - 496 3 21 4 365 73 19 406 43 2 18 4 379 5 35 5 316 351 67 71 333 78 76 476 53% - - - 100% 2% 13% 9% 97% 72% 92% 89% 11% 2% 13% 11% 90% 3% 23% 12% 94% 84% 17% 63% 56% 37% 68% 51% Scottish Green Party 23 - - - - - - - 6 16 - 12 6 - 1 - 14 - 3 1 10 13 4 4 10 5 8 26 3% - - - - - - - 2% 16% - 3% 2% - * - 3% - 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 4% 2% 2% 7% 3% Independent candidate - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - UKIP - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Reform UK/The Brexit Party 4 - - - - - - - - - - - 4 3 - - 1 3 - - - - 4 - - 4 - 3 * - - - - - - - - - - - 1% 2% - - * 1% - - - - 1% - - 2% - * Independence for Scotland (ISP) 1 - - - - - - - - - - 1 - - - - 1 - - - 1 1 - - - 1 - 1 * - - - - - - - - - - * - - - - * - - - * * - - - * - * All for Unity 2 - - - - - - - - - - - 2 - 2 - - - 2 - - - 2 - 2 - - 2 * - - - - - - - - - - - * - 1% - - - 1% - - - * - * - - * Other 9 - - - - 2 1 - - 1 1 5 1 1 - - 2 1 - - 1 2 1 5 3 1 4 8 1% - - - - 1% 1% - - 1% 3% 1% * * - - * * - - * * * 5% 1% 1% 3% 1% Outside voting base - Undecided/Don't know 75 - - - - 4 2 2 4 3 2 17 41 4 6 2 9 5 6 3 9 16 37 15 30 22 17 74 7% - - - - 2% 1% 3% 1% 3% 8% 3% 9% 3% 4% 4% 2% 3% 4% 7% 3% 4% 8% 12% 5% 9% 12% 7% - Refused 9 - - - - - 2 - - - - 5 2 - - - - - 1 - - 3 4 2 8 - 2 8 1% - - - - - 1% - - - - 1% * - - - - - * - - 1% 1% 1% 1% - 1% 1% - Would not vote 20 - - - - - 1 - 1 * - 7 9 - 1 1 4 - - - 3 8 6 3 6 6 6 20 2% - - - - - 1% - * * - 1% 2% - 1% 3% 1% - - - 1% 2% 1% 3% 1% 2% 4% 2% Respondent type : General Public - age 16+ living in Scotland Fieldwork Dates : Monday 29th March to Sunday 4th April 2021 Source : Ipsos MORI Scotland (JN: 20-089701) Holyrood_PolitM_clientWAVE3_tabs_Final1.