The London School of Economics and Political Science Childbearing intentions of Polish nationals in Poland and in the UK: Progression to the second child Joanna Marczak A thesis submitted to the Department of Social Policy of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, September 2013 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others. The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 90 526 words. 2 Abstract This study explores and compares the rationales behind, and justifications for, intentions about whether or not to have a second child among Polish fathers and mothers living in the UK and Poland. Drawing on semi-structured interviews (n=42) contextualised by media and statistical analyses, the thesis interrogates the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) and explores the extent to which aspects related to the theory (i.e. attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control) permeate informants’ narratives. This thesis emphasises that researching fertility intentions requires more complex and context-specific operationalisations of theoretical constructs as drawing on standardised definitions and concepts across different populations could impact data validity and reliability, and I suggest ways in which survey questions could be modified. The findings demonstrate the importance of transnational groups of reference for Polish individuals’ understanding of resources deemed as adequate to have a second child, suggesting that the notion of economic wellbeing is more variable and complex than current evidence suggests. The study also illustrates that kin assistance in Poland is relevant for reproductive decisions since it relates to economic constraints to childbearing and to perceived requirements to provide children with kin support and inheritance. Moreover, individuals in both settings communicate beliefs related to childbearing intentions discursively, fine-tuning ambivalent and inconsistent cognitions while constructing a coherent narrative. The findings question the TPB assumption that people reach decisions primarily as a result of causal, regular and law-governed forces acting on theoretical constructs independent of individuals’ agency, and I point to possibilities to expand and refine theories used in demographic research. Although my empirical findings focus on Polish nationals, I argue that this research has broader implications for theorising, researching and interpreting findings on childbearing intentions. 3 Acknowledgements This research would not have been possible without the generous financial support from Titmuss-Meinhardt Award and Social Policy Research Studentship for which I am very grateful. I am deeply thankful to Dr Ernestina Coast and Dr Sigle-Rushton for their patient guidance throughout the research process and for their numerous ideas on how to approach it. I would also like to thank my informants in Krakow and London for their contributions and for finding time in their busy schedules to meet me and to share their experiences and views, without them this thesis would not have materialised. I wish to express special thanks to Morten, who spent hours patiently listening to my developing ideas regarding this project, my doubts and concerns and who was always very supportive. Finally, I also want to thank my sister Patrycja who always inspired me and taught me about the most important things in life. 4 Contents Abstract……………………………………………………………………………….3 Acknowledgements………………………………...…………………………………4 List of Figures………………………………………………………………………..11 List of Tables…………………………………………………………………...……13 1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 14 1.1 Background and impetus for the study ........................................................... 14 1.2 Why research fertility intentions of Polish nationals? .................................... 16 1.3 Progression to the second parity ..................................................................... 19 1.3.1 Second and higher order births in Poland ................................................. 20 1.4 A note on fertility research and gender ........................................................... 21 1.5 Polish migrants in the UK ............................................................................... 22 1.5.1 A note on low fertility in Poland and emigration ..................................... 24 1.6 Comparing Polish nationals residing in Poland and in the UK ...................... 25 1.7 The Theory of Planned Behaviour .................................................................. 26 1.8 Research Questions ......................................................................................... 26 1.8.1 Main research question ............................................................................. 27 1.8.2 Research objectives ................................................................................... 27 1.9 Thesis Structure .............................................................................................. 27 2 Theoretical Approaches to Fertility Choices ........................................... 31 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 31 2.2 The Second Demographic Transition Theory ................................................. 31 2.3 Gender Equity Theory .................................................................................... 33 2.4 Microeconomic Approaches and the Rational Choice Theory ....................... 35 2.5 The Traits-Desires-Intentions-Behaviour Theory ........................................... 37 2.6 The Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) ....................................................... 40 5 2.7 Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 46 3 Previous Empirical Research and Media Accounts ................................ 47 3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 47 3.2 Structural determinants of low TFR in Poland ............................................... 47 3.2.1 Economic situation and fertility behaviour ............................................... 50 3.2.2 Unemployment rates and fertility in Poland ............................................. 52 3.2.3 Reduction of fertility as female strategy to retain employment ................ 53 3.2.4 Economic adversities, economic literature and media accounts ............... 54 3.2.5 Absent welfare state .................................................................................. 55 3.3 Progression to a second child and higher parities in Poland ........................... 58 3.4 Gender and fertility research ........................................................................... 58 3.5 Research on Polish migrants in the UK .......................................................... 61 4 Methodology of the Research .................................................................... 66 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 66 4.2 Comparative investigation .............................................................................. 66 4.3 Quantitative analysis ....................................................................................... 67 4.3.1 The UK Labour Force Survey .................................................................. 68 1.1.1 Community Statistics on Income and Living Conditions ......................... 70 4.4 Qualitative data ............................................................................................... 71 4.4.1 Sample selection and characteristics ......................................................... 72 4.4.2 Researching the familiar ........................................................................... 77 4.4.3 Fieldwork .................................................................................................. 79 4.5 Qualitative data analysis ................................................................................. 83 4.6 Translation and confines of reflexivity ........................................................... 88 4.7 Ethical issues ................................................................................................... 89 4.8 Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 90 6 5 The Economic and Institutional Settings in Poland and the UK ........... 92 5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 92 5.2 Economic conditions and employment patterns of Polish nationals in Poland and the UK .................................................................................................................. 93 5.2.1 Employment of Polish nationals in London and the rest of the UK ......... 96 5.2.2