MEMORANDUM TO: Edwards for President FROM: Global Strategy Group, LLC RE: Updated electability data Date December 18, 2007 Synopsis: Nationwide polling shows John Edwards is the Democrat with the best chance of defeating the Republican candidate in the 2008 Presidential election. All three Democratic candidates have a slight lead on Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani. Edwards’ average margin of victory is greater than Obama’s and well ahead of Clinton’s against the other Republican candidates. Edwards outperforms the other Democratic candidates in match-ups with Republican candidates in key battleground states including Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio. Further, unlike other Democrats who must “run the table” in states where Democrats have been competitive in recent elections, Edwards brings new states into play. This provides alternate scenarios – and a margin for error – when it comes to amassing 270 electoral votes. National electability: This table shows the average margin for each Democrat for nationwide general election polls since the first of November in which they are included in horse race questions. General Election Match-ups Edwards Clinton Obama Rudy Giuliani........ +4 (4 polls) +4 (15 polls) +2 (7polls) Mike Huckabee .... +14 (3 polls) +5 (3 polls) +10 (3 polls) John McCain........ +8 (3 polls) +3 (6 polls) +1 (4 polls) Mitt Romney......... +18 (3 polls) +9 (9 polls) +11 (8 polls) Fred Thompson.... +14 (1 poll) +9 (7 polls) +10 (4 polls) • In national general election polling, Edwards fares better than or at least as well as Clinton and Obama against all five Republicans. • Against Giuliani, all three candidates maintain a slight lead. Edwards and Obama lead the other Republicans by wider margins than Clinton. • National public polling throughout 2007 has consistently shown Clinton’s weakness in the general election. With almost no exceptions, she is seen unfavorably by more likely voters than any other candidate, Democrat or Republican. • Clinton also consistently fares the worst of all candidates in terms of the number of people who say they definitely will not or would never vote for her. NEW YORK WASHINGTON, DC CONNECTICUT ARKANSAS 895 Broadway, 5th Floor 4445 Willard Avenue, Suite 1040 36 Trumbull Street, 3rd Floor 900 S. Shackleford, # 510 New York, NY 10003 Chevy Chase, MD 20815 Hartford, CT 06103 Little Rock, AR 72211 212.260.8813 voice 301.951.5200 voice 860.547.1414 voice 501.954.7878 voice 212.260.9058 fax 301.951.7040 fax 860.548.0842 fax 501.954.9955 fax • The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released November 8th reveals “pluralities rate Mrs. Clinton negatively on honesty, likeability and sharing their positions on the issues.” • A USA Today/Gallup poll released November 6th says “in a general election, the poll suggests that Clinton has the least potential for winning votes from Republicans — 84% say they definitely would not vote for her, compared with six in 10 for either Obama or Edwards.” In the most recent USA Today/Gallup her unfavorable rating is 50%, 13 points higher than that of any other contender. State-by-state electability: • Even more important than nationwide popular vote polls, Edwards outperforms other Democratic candidates against the Republicans in key battleground states, including Missouri, Iowa, and Ohio. • Unlike other Democrats, who will be forced to “run the table” of states where Democrats have been competitive in recent elections, Edwards brings new states into play. This provides alternative scenarios – and a margin for error – when it comes to winning 270 electoral votes. • Edwards’ strong performance in these tough states makes him the best nominee for Democratic candidates further down the ticket. In a poll conducted in August by Biden pollster Celinda Lake, an initial 19 point lead for the Democratic U.S. Representative in the 31 Democratic-held House districts regarded as most imperiled in 2008 is slashed to only 6 when they are linked to Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama and their "liberal" policies. • The Los Angeles Times reports that “despite recent gains by Democrats in the Rocky Mountain West, party officials across the region are increasingly anxious that their congressional candidates may get dragged under by Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign.” Polling in the region shows the drag a Clinton candidacy would have on other Democrats in the region. • Reuters reports “’If Hillary comes to a state like Missouri we can write it off,’ said Missouri House minority whip Connie Johnson, who said Democrats were ‘hanging on by a thread’ to a slim majority in Missouri’s state house. ‘Mr. Edwards is the only way Democrats can regain the White House… particularly in a state like Missouri.’” • Many have come to similar conclusions. Doug Schoen, until recently the partner of Clinton Master Strategist Mark Penn, concludes that Edwards would be the strongest general election candidate: “First, one naturally points to Edwards' southern roots. Since John F. Kennedy's victory in 1960, the only Democrats to win the Presidency were southern Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Second, Edwards--despite his current left wing rhetorical appeal--is actually perceived as more conservative than either Clinton or Obama. Overall, 44% perceive Edwards as liberal in comparison to 51% who perceive Obama as liberal and 57% who see Clinton in this way. By contrast, 13% characterize Edwards as conservative, compared to 8% who see Clinton and Obama in this way. Finally, Edwards at this point demonstrates the greatest appeal to Independents beating Giuliani by 13%. Obama wins Independents by 5% and Clinton wins them by 3% against Giuliani.” Global Strategy Group 2 Battleground State General Election Match-ups John Edwards Hillary Clinton Barack Obama Missouri* [11 EV] Rudy Giuliani........... Edwards +5 Clinton -1 Obama +2 Mitt Romney............ Edwards +24 Clinton +11 Obama +11 Fred Thompson....... Edwards +10 Clinton +3 Obama +3 Iowa* [7 EV] Rudy Giuliani........... Edwards +14 Clinton +8 Obama +8 Mitt Romney............ Edwards +16 Clinton +7 Obama +10 Fred Thompson....... Edwards +17 Clinton +6 Obama +10 Oregon* [7 EV] Rudy Giuliani........... Edwards +3 Clinton +2 Tied Mitt Romney............ Edwards +18 Clinton +13 Obama +18 Fred Thompson....... Edwards +15 Clinton +7 Obama +15 Ohio* [20 EV] Rudy Giuliani........... Edwards -1 Clinton -1 Obama -13 Mitt Romney............ Edwards +20 Clinton +10 Obama -1 Fred Thompson....... Edwards +9 Clinton +1 Obama -8 Oklahoma* [7 EV] Rudy Giuliani........... Edwards +9 Clinton -3 Obama -21 Mitt Romney............ Edwards +21 Clinton +3 Obama -6 Fred Thompson....... Edwards +6 Clinton -6 Obama -20 Virginia* [13 EV] Rudy Giuliani........... Edwards +5 Clinton +6 Obama +1 Mitt Romney............ Edwards +19 Clinton +15 Obama +12 Fred Thompson....... Edwards +10 Clinton +7 Obama -2 Kentucky* [8 EV] Rudy Giuliani........... Edwards -7 Clinton -10 Obama -18 Mitt Romney............ Edwards +10 Tied Obama -2 Fred Thompson....... Edwards +1 Clinton -5 Obama -7 Kansas* [6 EV] Rudy Giuliani........... Edwards -10 Clinton -12 Obama -11 Mitt Romney............ Edwards +14 Clinton +1 Obama +6 Fred Thompson....... Edwards -7 Clinton -13 Obama -10 Alabama* [9 EV] Rudy Giuliani........... Edwards -10 Clinton -11 Obama -27 Mitt Romney............ Edwards +6 Clinton -1 Obama -17 Fred Thompson....... Edwards -12 Clinton -13 Obama -26 SOURCE: Survey USA polling. Best Democrat in each category shown in BOLD. Global Strategy Group 3 • Clinton’s strength in national polls is exaggerated by her comparatively strong showing in large, solidly Democratic states. Edwards is the candidate who can expand the Democratic map, putting states into play that neither Clinton nor Obama can. National polls “cover up” Clinton’s weakness and Edwards’ strength in critical swing states by her comparatively strong showing in large, solidly Democratic states like New York, Massachusetts, and California. “Big Blue State” General Election Match-ups John Edwards Hillary Clinton Barack Obama New York* Rudy Giuliani........... Edwards -1 Clinton +24 Obama +5 Mitt Romney............ Edwards +34 Clinton +40 Obama +28 Fred Thompson....... Edwards +22 Clinton +34 Obama +15 Massachusetts* Rudy Giuliani........... Edwards +8 Clinton +25 Obama +5 Mitt Romney............ Edwards +25 Clinton +34 Obama +22 Fred Thompson....... Edwards +25 Clinton +29 Obama +17 California* Rudy Giuliani........... Edwards +2 Clinton +20 Obama +4 Mitt Romney............ Edwards +31 Clinton +33 Obama +15 Fred Thompson....... Edwards +21 Clinton +26 Obama +16 SOURCE: Survey USA polling. Best Democrat in each category shown in BOLD. Global Strategy Group 4 Nationwide General Election Match-up Polling Poll # Surveyed End date % Democrat % Republican CNN/Opinion Research 912 Registered voters 12/9/2007 Edwards: 53% Giuliani: 44 Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 12/6/2007 Edwards: 44% Giuliani: 44 NBC News/WSJ 754 Adults 11/5/2007 Edwards: 45% Giuliani: 44 Newsweek/PSRA 1002 Registered voters 11/1/2007 Edwards: 48% Giuliani: 45 AVERAGE: 48% AVERAGE: 44 Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 12/13/2007 Edwards: 49% Huckabee: 37 CNN/Opinion Research 912 Registered voters 12/9/2007 Edwards: 60% Huckabee: 35 Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 12/6/2007 Edwards: 44% Huckabee: 40 AVERAGE: 52% AVERAGE: 38 Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 12/13/2007 Edwards: 46% McCain:39 CNN/Opinion Research 912 Registered voters 12/9/2007 Edwards: 52% McCain: 44 Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 11/1/2007 Edwards: 47% McCain:38 AVERAGE: 48% AVERAGE: 40 CNN/Opinion Research 912