Technical Data Report MARINE SHIPPING QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS ENBRIDGE NORTHERN GATEWAY PROJECT Det Norske Veritas Oslo, Norway Audun Brandsæter, Principal Consultant Peter Hoffmann, Senior Consultant 2010 MARINE SHIPPING QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS Technical Data Report Table of Contents Table of Contents Table of Contents ............................................................................................................ i List of Tables ................................................................................................................ iv List of Figures .............................................................................................................. vii Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 1-1 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1-4 1.1 Objective ............................................................................................................. 1-4 1.2 Abbreviations ...................................................................................................... 1-6 2 Methodology ..................................................................................................... 2-7 2.1 Northern Gateway Pipelines Marine QRA Methodology ..................................... 2-7 2.2 Application of Methodology ................................................................................ 2-8 3 System Definition ........................................................................................... 3-10 3.1 Route Description ............................................................................................. 3-10 3.1.1 Description of Segments Common to all Routes (Segments 1 and 2) ........ 3-14 3.1.2 North Route Segments (Segment 3 to Segment 5) ..................................... 3-18 3.1.3 South Route Segments (Segments 6 to 9) .................................................. 3-23 3.1.4 Area Seaward of Queen Charlotte Islands and Vancouver Island .............. 3-26 3.1.5 Alternative Routes ....................................................................................... 3-27 3.2 Tanker Specifications ....................................................................................... 3-30 3.2.1 Hull and Cargo Tank Components .............................................................. 3-30 3.2.2 Navigational Equipment ............................................................................... 3-31 3.2.3 Fire Prevention and Fire Fighting ................................................................ 3-31 3.3 Kitimat Terminal ................................................................................................ 3-32 3.3.1 Marine Terminal Berthing Procedures ......................................................... 3-33 3.3.2 Terminal Cargo Transfer Equipment ........................................................... 3-34 3.3.3 Marine Terminal Safety and Monitoring Equipment .................................... 3-35 3.4 Weather Description ......................................................................................... 3-36 3.4.1 Waves, Wind and Current............................................................................ 3-36 3.4.2 Currents ....................................................................................................... 3-38 4 Hazard Identification ....................................................................................... 4-40 4.1 HAZID Workshop .............................................................................................. 4-40 4.1.1 Methodology ................................................................................................ 4-40 4.2 Hazard Evaluation of Routes by Navigational Expert ....................................... 4-44 4.2.1 Collision Hazard .......................................................................................... 4-45 4.2.2 Grounding Hazard ....................................................................................... 4-45 4.3 Local Meetings and Interviews ......................................................................... 4-46 4.4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 4-47 5 Frequency Assessment .................................................................................. 5-49 5.1 Incidents during Transit to and from the Kitimat Terminal ................................ 5-49 5.1.1 Vessel Incident Frequency Data .................................................................. 5-49 5.1.2 Assumptions on Sailing Time Relevant to Incidents ................................... 5-50 5.1.3 Scaling Factors ............................................................................................ 5-51 2010 DRAFT Page i MARINE SHIPPING QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS Technical Data Report Table of Contents 5.1.4 Grounding .................................................................................................... 5-54 5.1.5 Collision ....................................................................................................... 5-61 5.1.6 Foundering ................................................................................................... 5-66 5.1.7 Scaled Fire and / or Explosion Frequency per Segment ............................. 5-69 5.1.8 Scaled Incident Frequencies for Each Route Segment ............................... 5-69 5.2 Incidents during Berthing and Cargo Transfer Operations ............................... 5-71 5.2.1 Impact by Harbour Tug ................................................................................ 5-71 5.2.2 Tanker Striking Pier during Berthing ............................................................ 5-72 5.2.3 Impact by Passing Vessels .......................................................................... 5-72 5.2.4 Cargo Transfer Operations .......................................................................... 5-74 6 Consequence Assessment ............................................................................ 6-76 6.1 Conditional Spill Probabilities ........................................................................... 6-76 6.2 Tanker Capacities ............................................................................................ 6-76 6.3 Conditional Probability of a Spill from Incidents Occurring during Transit to and from the Marine Terminal .......................................................................... 6-77 6.3.1 Grounding .................................................................................................... 6-78 6.3.2 Collisions ..................................................................................................... 6-82 6.3.3 Foundering ................................................................................................... 6-87 6.3.4 Fire and Explosions ..................................................................................... 6-87 6.3.5 Unmitigated Spill Frequencies per Segment ............................................... 6-88 6.4 Conditional Probability of a Spill from Incidents Occurring during Berthing and Cargo Transfer Operations ........................................................................ 6-90 6.4.1 Tanker Striking Pier during Berthing ............................................................ 6-90 6.4.2 Impact by a Passing Vessel ......................................................................... 6-91 6.4.3 Cargo Transfer Operations .......................................................................... 6-91 7 Unmitigated Risk Evaluation .......................................................................... 7-93 7.1 Definition of Incident and Spill Return Periods ................................................. 7-93 7.2 Relative Comparison of Unmitigated Incident and Spill Return Periods for Tanker Transits to and from the Kitimat Terminal ............................................ 7-94 7.3 Relative Comparison of the Effect of the use of Alternative Routes on Unmitigated Spill Return Periods ..................................................................... 7-97 7.3.1 Whale Channel ............................................................................................ 7-97 7.3.2 Cridge Passage ........................................................................................... 7-98 7.3.3 Estevan Sound ............................................................................................ 7-98 7.3.4 Conclusions on the Use of Alternate Routes ............................................... 7-98 7.4 Sensitivity Analyses .......................................................................................... 7-99 7.4.1 Increased Scaling Factors for Grounding .................................................... 7-99 7.4.2 Increased Traffic ........................................................................................ 7-100 7.4.3 Increase or Decrease in the Number of Tankers Calling at the Kitimat Terminal ..................................................................................................... 7-101 7.4.4 Extending Routes Seaward of the Queen Charlotte Islands and Vancouver Island ....................................................................................... 7-102 7.4.5 Conclusion from the Sensitivity Analysis ..................................................