Master Thesis Critical success and fail factors of electric busses in public transport: A review on existing European electric bus projects For the degree of Master of Science in Sustainable Energy Technology at Delft University of Technology Michiel Frenaij June 30, 2014 Author: M.P.H. (Michiel) Frenaij Student number: 4210468 Contact information: [email protected] University: Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands Program: Sustainable Energy Technology, Faculty of Applied Sciences Graduation section: Urban and Regional development, Research Institute OTB, Faculty of Architecture and the Built Environment Graduation committee: Prof. Dr. G.P. (Bert) van Wee, Section Transport and Logistics, Faculty Technology, Policy and Management Dr. J.W. (Rob) Konings, Section Urban and Regional development, Research Institute OTB for the Built Environment, Faculty of Architecture and the Built Environment Dr. L.M. (Linda) Kamp, Section Energy and Industry, Faculty Technology, Policy and Management Dr. S. (Sjoerd) Bakker, Research Institute OTB for the Built Environment, Faculty of Architecture and the Built Environment ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Foremost, I would like to express my gratitude to my advisors Dr. Rob Konings and Dr. Sjoerd Bakker for their continuous support throughout my thesis project. They gave me insights on proper academic research, guiding me through the learning process of this master thesis. It was a pleasure working with them. Besides my advisors, I would like to thank the rest of my thesis committee: Prof. Dr. Bert Van Wee and Dr. Linda Kamp for their enthusiasm, their confidence in this research, and their valuable comments. Also, I would like to thank to the interviewees and survey participants, who have voluntarily shared their knowledge, time, and energy with me. My sincere thanks to my friend Daan van der Heijden, of “Daan van der Heijden; Visuele Communicatie & Grafisch Ontwerp” who helped visualize the adjusted theoretical framework of this study. Last but not least, I would like to thank my loved ones, who have supported me throughout the process, both by providing me warmth and advising me on my research. II EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Present-day transportation pollutes, causing significant damage to the environment and human health. The European Union, together with national and local governmental bodies, is trying to mitigate the polluting effect of transportation. A widely-used measure is the promotion of public transportation. Parts of public transportation can be perceived as ‘green’ (e.g. electric mobility such as train, tram, and metro). However combustion engine busses are heavy polluters. Specifically in urban areas the greatest sources of NOx-pollution is freight- and bus-transportation. The use of electric busses can be a solution to this polluting effect. According to reports of IPCC (2007) and TNO (2012) advantages of electric mobility are its energy efficiency, fortifying effect on the transition to sustainable energy technologies, less dependency on fossil fuels, less noise pollution, less emissions in general, and no local emissions (except for small particles from breaks and tires). Governing bodies in large European cities are interested in implementation of electric busses. But why is this solution at present not being implemented at large scale? Technical feasibility has been met in several electric bus projects, however technical challenges for current electric bus innovators remain. First, the capacity of batteries is substandard. Second, novel charging techniques and the associated supercapacitors or Li-ion batteries of large-sized busses are not a proven technology yet. Political feasibility for the large-scale implementation of electric busses holds challenges as well. The financial characteristics of electric busses, with high purchase costs and high infrastructural investment costs, can be limiting factors for large scale implementation of electric bus projects. As shown above, simplistic reasoning points out several factors that might influence the implementation of electric busses at large scale. In order to extrapolate a substantiated theory on current drivers and barriers of electric bus implementation in Europe, this thesis has tried to answer to the main research question: What are major drivers and barriers to the successful adoption of electric busses in Europe? In this study we define successful adoption as the actual use and continuous use of an electric bus in daily operation on an official public transportation bus route. The electric bus project must at least run for the anticipated period of operation. In an attempt to identify these major drivers and barriers, eight case studies were analysed using an analytical conceptual framework. In order to increase the external validity of the research, a review on case study findings was performed with the help of a survey. Stakeholders from the European electric bus sector were asked about the drivers’ and barriers’ impact on the successful adoption of electric busses in Europe. Based on the findings from the case study analyses and survey, we can conclude on the main research questions. The main driver for successful adoption of electric busses is the innovation’s reduced environmental impact. Unlike conventional busses, electric busses do not produce local emissions. Moreover, electric bus operation leads to reduced noise pollution and a potential sustainable energy conversion process. Other major drivers that have slightly less impact on the decision to adopt, are the i.) improved public perception of the decision maker and/or potential adopting organization, as an anticipated result of the implementation of sustainable and innovative solutions; ii.) the innovation policy of the decision maker, meaning stimulation of innovations to enhance economic growth and/or human well-being; III and iii.) the presence of a visionary leader, meaning a powerful individual (e.g. a mayor) who imposes his or her ideas favoring electric bus implementation. Five major barriers to successful adoption of electric busses can be distinguished. The two barriers that have the highest impact on successful electric bus adoption in Europe are: i.) the higher technical- and financial-risks that are associated with electric bus adoption, due to the high investment costs and the low degree of experience associated with electric busses in Europe; ii.) the perceived high life cycle costs of electric busses, mainly due to the battery purchase and replacement costs and the infrastructure investment costs. Other major barriers, that have slightly less impact on the decision to adopt, are i.) the low degree of compatibility of electric busses to conventional bus transportation systems, stemming from differences in the driving/refuelling (charging is considered to be a type of refuelling) ratio, the reduced action radius, and the disparity in financial modelling (as a result of increased investment costs and often lower operations costs); ii.) the low availability of information on the current technical- as well as financial- characteristics of electric busses, due to the fact that most information on electric busses is confined to information provided by bus suppliers; and iii.) the possible low degree of competition between public bus operators results in risk-averse management with often a low degree of innovation adoption. The overall limiting factor of electric bus adoption is the energy storage system (i.e. battery) in terms of life-time uncertainty, costs, and energy- and power-density. Causing, obstacles such as high risks, high investment costs, and low compatibility. Research contributions This thesis contributes to existing work in the field of innovation- and adoption-literature, by the adaption of an analytical conceptual model to ensure incorporation of the characteristics of the public transportation sector. This thesis contributes to existing literature on electric public transportation busses, by providing an in- depth overview of the current electric bus market. First, an overview of the current electric bus projects in Europe was presented. Second, eight unique case study analyses of electric bus projects in Europe were elaborated upon. Third, the impact of several drivers and barriers on the implementation of electric bus projects was measured, based on a survey answered by stakeholders from the European electric bus sector. Fourth, the major drivers and barriers to the implementation of electric bus projects in Europe were identified. Overall, this study provides an unique socio-political analyses of the current status of electric bus projects in Europe. It is evident that society will benefit from zero-emission vehicle operations by significantly reducing the damage to the environment and human health caused by transportation. Adoption of electric vehicles is one of the roadmaps to a zero-emission transportation system. This thesis provides an overview and a discussion on the current condition of electric bus implementation in Europe. Based on this information, private as well as public organizations that aim to lower emissions in the transport sector can construct or modify their strategy favouring the introduction of zero-emission vehicles. This thesis contributes to the field of innovation policy by providing a unique review on the adoption of a particular innovation (i.e. the full electric bus) on a firm-level. Future potential adoption of innovations in the public transportation sector could benefit from the lessons learned from