FINAL REPORT DEVELOPING REFINED ESTIMATES OF INTERCITY BUS RIDERSHIP DTFH6114P00097 4.23.2015 PREPARED FOR: FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION SUBMITTED BY: RSG 55 RAILROAD ROW WHITE RIVER JUNCTION, VT 802.295.4999 WWW.RSGINC.COM DEVELOPING REFINED ESTIMATES OF INTERCITY BUS RIDERSHIP PREPARED FOR: FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1 2.0 RESEARCH APPROACH ................................................................................................................ 2 2.1 | Data Sources ................................................................................................................................. 2 2.2 | Analytical Concept and Steps ....................................................................................................... 2 2.3 | Research Products ........................................................................................................................ 3 3.0 COMPILE EXISTING DATA ............................................................................................................. 5 3.1 | Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 5 3.2 | Schedule Data Overview ............................................................................................................... 5 3.3 | NEC Schedule Data and Survey Data .......................................................................................... 5 Sampling and Survey Administration .................................................................................................................................. 6 Questionnaire Design ........................................................................................................................................................ 9 Estimating Ridership .......................................................................................................................................................... 9 Processing Survey Data................................................................................................................................................... 10 Geography ....................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Estimated Weekly Trip Volumes ...................................................................................................................................... 11 3.4 | Defining the Top 200 Markets ..................................................................................................... 12 3.5 | Schedule Data for the Top 200 Markets...................................................................................... 17 3.6 | Markets by Region ....................................................................................................................... 20 Region 1: North East ........................................................................................................................................................ 21 Region 2: South ............................................................................................................................................................... 25 Region 3: Florida ............................................................................................................................................................. 28 i Region 4: Midwest ........................................................................................................................................................... 30 Region 5: Texas ............................................................................................................................................................... 34 Region 6: North West ....................................................................................................................................................... 37 Region 7: South West ...................................................................................................................................................... 39 Region 8: Inter-regional ................................................................................................................................................... 43 4.0 ESTIMATED BUS RIDERSHIP FOR THE TOP 200 MARKETS ................................................... 46 4.1 | Estimation Data sources.............................................................................................................. 46 Schedule Database.......................................................................................................................................................... 46 Northeast Origin-Destination Study .................................................................................................................................. 46 Core-Based statistcal Areas ............................................................................................................................................. 47 4.2 | Estimation Approach ................................................................................................................... 47 Estimation Steps for One Bus Trip ................................................................................................................................... 47 Estimation for The Entire Schedule Database .................................................................................................................. 48 Discussion of the Estimation Approach ............................................................................................................................ 49 4.3 | Applying the Estimation Approach .............................................................................................. 49 Scoring Approach ............................................................................................................................................................ 49 Estimating the Target Load Factor ................................................................................................................................... 50 4.4 | Validation ..................................................................................................................................... 50 4.5 | Results: Bus Ridership in the Top 200 Markets .......................................................................... 51 5.0 FUTURE YEAR (2040) BUS RIDERSHIP ESTIMATES ................................................................ 63 6.0 RECOMMEND APPROACH FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT AND UPDATING .......................... 66 6.1 | Repeatable Analytical Process .................................................................................................... 66 6.2 | Recommendations for Refinement .............................................................................................. 66 ii April 23, 2015 List of Figures FIGURE 1: SUBMARKET MAP ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 FIGURE 2: HISTOGRAM OF TOP 200 MARKETS’ DEMAND ........................................................................................................ 16 FIGURE 3: TOP 200 MARKETS BY REGION ................................................................................................................................. 17 FIGURE 4: TOP 200 MARKETS’ SCHEDULE DATA ..................................................................................................................... 18 FIGURE 5: POPULATION IN THE NORTH EAST REGION ............................................................................................................ 22 FIGURE 6: LONG DISTANCE TRIPS IN THE NORTH EAST REGION .......................................................................................... 22 FIGURE 7: SCHEDULED BUS SERVICES IN THE NORTH EAST REGION .................................................................................. 23 FIGURE 8: POPULATION IN THE SOUTH REGION ...................................................................................................................... 26 FIGURE 9: LONG DISTANCE TRIPS IN THE SOUTH REGION ..................................................................................................... 26 FIGURE 10: SCHEDULED BUS SERVICES IN THE SOUTH REGION .......................................................................................... 27 FIGURE 11: POPULATION IN THE FLORIDA REGION ................................................................................................................. 29 FIGURE 12: LONG DISTANCE TRIPS IN THE FLORIDA REGION ............................................................................................... 29 FIGURE 13: SCHEDULED BUS SERVICES IN THE FLORIDA REGION ....................................................................................... 30 FIGURE 14: POPULATION IN THE MIDWEST REGION ................................................................................................................ 31 FIGURE 15: LONG DISTANCE TRIPS IN THE MIDWEST REGION ............................................................................................. 32 FIGURE 16: SCHEDULED BUS SERVICES IN THE MIDWEST