THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT DATA COLLECTION SURVEY ON A ROAD BETWEEN DUSHANBE AND KURGAN-TYUBE IN THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN FINAL REPORT NOVEMBER 2015 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA) CTI ENGINEERING INTERNATIONAL CO., LTD. 3R JR 15-004 THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT DATA COLLECTION SURVEY ON A ROAD BETWEEN DUSHANBE AND KURGAN-TYUBE IN THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN FINAL REPORT NOVEMBER 2015 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA) CTI ENGINEERING INTERNATIONAL CO., LTD. Exchange Rate April 2015 1TJS = 21.819 Japanese Yen 1US$ = 5.45 Tajikistan Somoni 1US$ = 119.03Japanese Yen SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the Study The Republic of Tajikistan (hereinafter referred to as “Tajikistan”) has about 30,000km of total road network with roughly 65% of freight transport and 99% of passenger transport depending on the road network. The Dushanbe – Kurgan-Tyube road section (hereinafter referred to as the “DK road”) of the Dushanbe-Nihzny Pyanj road, connects Dushanbe with Kurgan-Tyube (one of the largest city in Khatlon). However, the opening of the Nihzny Pyanj Bridge at the border with Afghanistan has led to a dramatic increase in the traffic volume in recent years which contributed much to the deterioration of the pavement condition of this road section. Due to insufficient information, majority of the road section was not considered in the previous maintenance projects, except for the road sections that were improved under ADB financing. Under such conditions, the Tajikistan government thus considers the improvement and widening of the existing DK road as an urgent priority. This Study is undertaken to accumulate sufficient information that will be used to define the scope of work for the DK road improvement. 1.2 Objectives of the Study The Study objectives are to: Investigate the current status of the road network development in the vicinity of the study area, the traffic demand and the necessary improvement works for the DK road, Review the development plans for the DK road that will contribute to a safe and smooth traffic flow in this area, and Propose to the Tajikistan government an effective and appropriate scope for the project feasibility. 1.3 Study Area The Study area covers Khatlon province and the Regions of Republican Subordination (RRS), specifically the DK road section (approximately 93km of road length). 2 NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN AND ROAD DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2.1 National Development Plan Phases The NDS 2015 summarizes challenges of the development after collapse of USSR in 3 phases as shown below; Initial Phase： Creation of political stability and basic market mechanisms. Post-Soviet development GDP was shrunk, inflation rose to several thousand percent. 1992-1997 The foundations were laid for development of the economy and in 1997 economic growth was achieved for the first time. Second Phase： After Post-Soviet development phase, strong economic growth indicators 1997-1999 started in 2000, annual growth in GDP was 9.3%. Inflation fell to 6-7%, the country’s poverty rate reduced from 81% in 1999 to 64% in 2003. New Phase： The economic development after 1999. Many of the problems of the After 1999 transitional period were dealt with in the previous phases. The phase for market transformation. 2.2 Road Development Plan Tajikistan has “National Target Development Strategy for Transport Sector of the Republic of Tajikistan to the Year 2025 (hereinafter referred as Transport NDS 2025)” to provide long-term development in the Transport Sector which includes a road development plan. S-1 3 SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND PHYSICAL CONDITIONS OF THE PROJECT AREA 3.1 Population Number of population, growth rate and density is shown in Table 3.1-1. TABLE 3.1-1 NUMBER OF POPULATION IN THE REPUBLIC OF TAJIKISTAN (YEAR 2000 – YEAR 2013) Area 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ( 1,000 km2) Republic of Tajikistan 142.6 6,264.6 6,371.2 6,487.1 6,598.8 6,718.9 6,842.2 6,965.5 7,096.9 7,250.8 7,417.4 7,621.2 7,807.2 7,987.4 8,161.1 GBAR 64.1 207.4 208.3 208.8 209.5 206.8 206.4 206.3 203.1 203.7 204.8 206.5 208.5 210.2 212.1 Sogd Region 25.2 1,901.8 1,928.1 1,954.6 1,983.3 2,015.8 2,047.9 2,079.5 2,113.8 2,153.4 2,197.9 2,247.6 2,298.8 2,349.0 2,400.6 Khatlon Region 24.6 2,198.4 2,236.2 2,280.7 2,323.0 2,368.4 2,413.2 2,457.6 2,504.6 2,559.3 2,618.3 2,698.6 2,765.8 2,831.7 2,898.6 Khoroson District - ------------ 97.8 100.9 Population Bokhtar District - ------------ 231.4 214.8 (1,000 persons) Kurgan-Tyube City - ------------ 77.0 101.6 RRS 28.6 1,377.6 1,407.0 1,438.0 1,466.1 1,497.9 1,530.4 1,564.1 1,601.2 1,641.2 1,685.2 1,737.4 1,786.1 1,832.2 1,874.0 Dushanbe City 0.1 579.4 591.6 605.0 616.9 630.0 644.3 658.0 674.2 693.2 711.2 731.1 748.0 764.3 775.8 Republic of Tajikistan - - 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% GBAR - - 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% -1.3% -0.2% 0.0% -1.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.9% Sogd Region - - 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% Khatlon Region - - 1.7% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 3.1% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% Khoroson District - ------------- 3.2% Bokhtar District - --------------7.2% Growth Rate (%) Rate Growth Kurgan-Tyube City - -------------31.9% RRS - - 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 3.1% 2.8% 2.6% 2.3% Dushanbe City - - 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.8% 2.3% 2.2% 1.5% Republic of Tajikistan 142.6 43.9 44.7 45.5 46.3 47.1 48.0 48.8 49.8 50.8 52.0 53.4 54.7 56.0 57.2 GBAR 64.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 ) 2 Sogd Region 25.2 75.5 76.5 77.6 78.7 80.0 81.3 82.5 83.9 85.5 87.2 89.2 91.2 93.2 95.3 Khatlon Region 24.6 89.4 90.9 92.7 94.4 96.3 98.1 99.9 101.8 104.0 106.4 109.7 112.4 115.1 117.8 Khoroson District - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Bokhtar District - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Kurgan-Tyube City - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Density(persons/km RRS 28.6 48.2 49.2 50.3 51.3 52.4 53.5 54.7 56.0 57.4 58.9 60.7 62.5 64.1 65.5 Dushanbe City 0.1 5,794.0 5,916.0 6,050.0 6,169.0 6,300.0 6,443.0 6,580.0 6,742.0 6,932.0 7,112.0 7,311.0 7,480.0 7,643.0 7,758.0 Source: Agency on Statistics under President of the Republic of Tajikistan 3.2 Economic Development (GDP) Gross Domestic Product (herein after GDP) in Tajikistan is shown in Table 3.1-2. TABLE 3.1-2 GDP IN TAJIKISTAN FROM 2000 TO 2013 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 GDP 75.0 82.0 90.0 99.0 109.0 117.0 125.0 134.0 145.0 151.0 161.0 172.0 185.0 199.0 (Constant Price at Million Somoni) Growth Rate (%) 8.3% 10.2% 9.1% 10.2% 10.6% 6.7% 7.0% 7.8% 7.9% 3.9% 6.5% 7.4% 7.5% 7.4% Primary - - - - - - - - 28.7 28.1 31.6 40.9 43.1 42.0 Sectoral Economic Secondary - - - - - - - - 35.5 37.0 40.1 38.7 40.9 46.2 Output Tertiary - - - - - - - - 80.8 85.9 89.4 92.4 101.0 110.8 Primary----------2.2% 12.4% 29.7% 5.3% -2.6% Growth Rate (%) Secondary--------- 4.1%8.4%-3.5% 5.6% 12.9% Tertiary - - - - - - - - - 6.4% 4.0% 3.4% 9.4% 9.7% Source: IMF and Agency on Statistics under President of the Republic of Tajikistan 3.3 Import and Export Major import countries of Tajikistan are The Kyrgyz Republic at 132,491 thousand tons, China at 119,217 thousand tons and Turkey at 84,243 thousand tons. Major export country is Turkey at 76,613 thousand tons. S-2 Source: MOT FIGURE 3.1-1 MAJOR IMPORT AND EXPORT COUNTRIES 3.4 Poverty Level The poverty rate of 78% in Khatlon Region where the DK Road is located is higher than Tajikistan’s poverty rate of 64%. On the other hand, the poverty rate of 49% in Dushanbe City is much lower than that of Tajikistan.