CONSTRUCTION Sector report 11MP highlights 22 May 2015 OVERWEIGHT Mak Hoy Ken (Maintained) [email protected] 03-2036 2294 Rationale for report: Sector update Investment Highlights Development spending is 13% higher at RM260bil. Under the 11th Malaysia Plan (11MP), a sum of RM260bil has been allocated for development spending over the next five years (i.e. 2016-2020). This represents a 13% increase from the RM230bil allocated under the 10MP. During this period, the government has pencilled in a growth of ~10% p.a. for the construction sector. Key project highlights: Several key infrastructure projects announced earlier continue to anchor the fresh allocation for development spending over the next five years. They are:- (i) Klang Valley MRT 2 (Sg.Buloh-Selayang-Putrajaya); (ii) Klang Valley LRT 3 (Bandar Utama-Klang); (iii) KL-Singapore High Speed Rail; (iv) Five new power plants with a combined capacity of 7,626MW; (v) New highways outside Klang Valley (i.e. Pan Borneo Highway, Central Spine Road, Kota Bharu-Kuala Krai); and (vi) Expansion of water & sewerage networks. Public transport & water/sewerage among the key features: As per our sector update on 19 May 2015, the 11MP provides fresh impetus for newsflow on projects, and lifts the order book prospects of Malaysian contractors. We continue to advocate a bottom-up approach in screening potential beneficiaries of the 11MP. Not surprisingly public infrastructure projects – namely the Klang Valley MRT and LRT projects – will be a key feature under the 11MP. We foresee the MMC-Gamuda JV as the frontrunner to bag the tunnelling contract for the upcoming MRT2 line, as it has the edge of being the Project Delivery Partner (PDP) for both the MRT 1 & 2 lines. As for the LRT 3 project, we think that MRCB-George Kent JV is a strong contender for the PDP contract (which is likely to be awarded in June) given their combined experience in rail works and MRCB’s experience in managing the KL Sentral Transport Hub. Plans are also afoot to upgrade last-mile connectivity to Port Klang through an upgrade of the Westport-Northport rail route (including an upgrade of critical stretches on road) and an expansion of the Padang Besar Terminal in Perlis. We also like Econpile and Kimlun’s chances in bagging some contracts for the upcoming rail-related works, given their requisite strengths in piling and tunnel lining works, respectively. We however believe it is still too premature to turn constructive on the KL-Singapore HSR, as the deadline for completion was reportedly pushed back to beyond 2020. Apart from Langat 2, the 11MP is focused on ramping up new water treatment plants (WTP) or upgrading existing facilities in states where water reserve margins are low (i.e. Kedah, Selangor, and Negeri Sembilan). Potential job flows include the upgrading of Kulim High Tech Industrial Park (Kedah) and Batu Kitang WTP. Similarly, the rationalisation of 3,000 small sewerage treatment plants (STPs) into regional/centralised units and formation of a National Sewerage Master Plan could kick-start a new wave of sewerage jobs. JAKS Resources could be a candidate within this space. The five new plant-up programs highlighted above include three coal-fired units in Johor, Perak and Negeri Sembilan, as well as another two gas-fired plants in Penang and Johor. However, apart from its estimated cost of RM28mil, details remain sketchy for now. As for rural infrastructure, we expect integrated transmission line specialist Sarawak Cable to continue benefiting from more jobs to electrify Sarawak’s interior. While not exclusively mentioned, we expect some jobs to come out from the Sarawak portion of the RM27bil Pan Borneo Highway; home-grown Hock Seng Lee is a potential beneficiary. Outside the scope of 11MP, we once again see Gamuda as a favourite to land the PDP role for the RM27bil Penang Transport Master Plan (results due next month). PP 12246/05/2013 (032379) Construction 22 May 2015 OTHER KEY HIGHLIGHTS (1) Maintain NEUTRAL view on building materials sector: While the 11MP will provide renewed order book momentum for suppliers of building materials, the impact is not immediately clear due to implementation lag. Furthermore, both steel (experiencing price pressure from dumping of cheap Chinese steel) and cement players (facing pressure from new capacity) still have localised challenges in the near term. Therefore, we prefer contractors for direct leverage to the 11MP infrastructure theme. (2) Several non-Klang Valley highways are likely to be implemented during the 11MP period. Apart from the Pan Borneo Highway, these include the Central Spine and Kota Bharu-Kulai Krai highway. (3) More building opportunities are in the pipeline – affordable housing programs (e.g. PR1MA, Rumah Idaman Rakyat and Rumah Mesra Rakyat) and mega developments (TRX, KL118 Tower, RAPID and Pan Borneo Highway). However, given the intense competition, it is a tad difficult to pinpoint the likely winners for now. (4) There will be continued spending on rural infrastructure with the construction of 3,000km roads. Other key targets include achieving 99% coverage for water and electricity by 2020, and 80% sewerage connectivity, especially in major cities. AmResearch Sdn Bhd 2 Construction 22 May 2015 EXHIBIT 1: KEY INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS UNDER THE 11MP Projects Value Expected date Major Owner (RM bil) of award beneficiaries Klang Valley MRT Line 2 ¹ 23.0 major contracts: Tunnelling: MMC-Gamuda JV MRT Corp (Sg.Buloh-Serdang-Putrajaya) mid-2016 onwards SBG/tunnel lining: Kim Lun Piling: Econpile Klang Valley LRT Line 3 9.0 PDP: July 2015 PDP: seven bidders Prasarana Work packages: Six pre-qualified earlier end-2015 onwards - MMC-Gamuda JV - MRCB-George Kent JV - UEM - Naza TTDI-CSR Zhuzhou JV - Sunway - WCT-Alloy MTD JV West Coast Expressway - balance of works ² 2.2 Second Phase: IJM West Coast Expressway Sdn Bhd: Banting - Taiping (276km; another 40km to be built later) 2H15 (50 + 10 year concession) K Euro: 80% IJM : 20% Kuantan Port Expansion - balance of works ³ 1.8 Phase 1 bal: ~RM0.6bil - 2H15 IJM Kuantan Port Concession Phase 2: RM1.8bil - 2016/2017 IJM: 60% Guangxi Beibu: 40% ⁴ Pan Borneo Highway 27.0 Sarawak stretch: RM15bil Sarawak stretch: local contractors/HSL awards by 2H15 Sabah stretch: ~RM12bil - n/a ⁵ Penang Transport Master Plan 20.7 PDP: June 2015 Six shortlisted for PDP: 30-year concession: Zenith-BUCG JV Major work packages: 2016 - Gamuda Other components: n/a onwards - IJM - WCT - Prasarana - CGC Group - Two Hong Kong investors Upgrading Last-mile connectivity to Port Klang n/a n/a n/a - Westport-Nortport rail link - Critical stretches: Jln. Pelabuhan Utama Pulau Indah Expressway Expansion of Padang Besar Terminal n/a n/a n/a (from 120k TEU to 245k TEU) East Coast Rail Line 30.0 n/a n/a n/a (620km: Tumpat-Kuantan Port - cutting across KL) feasbility studies targeted for completion in 4Q14 Sg.Besi-Ulu Kelang Expressway (SUKE) - 59km 5.3 n/a n/a Prolintas (Sg.Besi-Duta-Ulu-Kelang Expressway [DUKE]) Damansara-Shah Alam Expressway (DASH) - 47km 4.2 n/a n/a Prolintas Puncak Perdana, Shah Alam - Penchala interchange Five new power plants (7,626MW): 28.0 n/a n/a n/a - 3 coal-fired (Johor, Perak and Negeri Sembilan) - 2 gas-fired (Penang and Johor) New WTP & STP facilities n/a n/a n/a n/a - Upgrading of Batu Kitang and Kulim High Tech Park WTP - Rationalization of 3,000 small STPs Non Klang Valley highways n/a n/a n/a n/a (Central Spine, Kota Bharu-Kuala Krai) Notes: ¹ PDP contract already awarded to MMC-Gamuda JV in October 2014 ² IJM-K Euro JV appointed EPC & contractor for packages 3, 4, 5, & 8 (RM2.8bil) in Dec 2014. ³ Kuantan Port Expansion: IJM was awarded the RM1.2bil contract to built a new deepwater terminal in February 2014. Excluding breakwater contract (4.7km) awarded to Inai Kiara, part of a RM1bil federal funding for the Kuantan Port expansion. ⁴ Concession for Sarawak stretch reportedly awarded to Lebuhraya Borneo Utara (LBU) ⁵ RM6.3bil undersea tunnel & 3 road bypass projects already awarded to Zenith-BUCG JV in 2013. ⁶ 50-year concession signed in Febraury 2013. Source: Various, AmResearch AmResearch Sdn Bhd 3 Construction 22 May 2015 TABLE 1 : CONSTRUCTION SECTOR VALUATION MATRIX Last Price Core EPS (FD) PE Ratio Market Cap Div. Yield Net Gearing Fair Value Recommendation (RM) (sen) (RM mil) (%) (%) (RM) Construction stocks FY15F FY16F FY17F FY15F FY16F FY17F FY15F FY15F IJM Corporation Bhd 7.17 40.8 46.9 55.1 17.6 15.3 13.0 12785.5 2.1 45.3 8.15 BUY WCT Holdings Bhd 1.86 11.8 12.9 14.5 15.8 14.4 12.8 1999.4 2.2 56.1 1.80 HOLD Gamuda Bhd 5.20 30.9 34.1 34.5 16.9 15.2 15.1 12372.1 2.9 40.6 5.80 BUY Sarawak Cable Bhd 1.40 18.1 19.1 19.3 7.7 7.3 7.3 443.9 1.8 143.0 1.70 BUY Benalec Holdings Bhd 0.76 5.9 6.2 11.3 12.9 12.2 6.7 607.3 3.3 20.8 1.25 BUY KKB Engineering Bhd 1.92 13.7 15.3 21.2 14.0 12.5 9.1 495.0 3.6 nm 2.05 BUY Hock Seng Lee Bhd 1.95 16.0 17.8 18.6 12.2 11.0 10.5 1071.6 1.6 nm 2.30 BUY Econpile Holdings Bhd 1.08 9.3 11.2 11.3 11.6 9.6 9.6 577.8 2.3 nm 1.40 BUY Kimlun Corp Bhd 1.34 12.9 13.6 14.2 10.4 9.9 9.4 402.8 2.8 23.3 1.38 HOLD Stocks with construction exposure Sunway Bhd 3.60 33.1 32.1 33.2 10.9 11.2 10.9 6303.6 9.0 43.9 3.74 BUY Malaysian Resources Corp.