Voortrekker Road Corridor Integration Zone: Strategy and Investment Plan Status Quo Analysis Report STATUS: DRAFT - INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY September 2014 Contents 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 9 1.1 Objectives .................................................................................................................. 9 1.2 Area Function, Role and Land Use ......................................................................... 9 1.2.1 Historical context ............................................................................................... 9 1.2.2 Current role and area differentiation. .......................................................... 13 1.2.3 Future planning ................................................................................................ 15 2 Current budgeted and planned initiatives ................................................................ 19 2.1 Summary of key capital projects within the VRC ............................................... 19 2.2 Current public investment patterns ..................................................................... 20 3. Demographic Trends ..................................................................................................... 29 3.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 29 3.1.1 Information gathering ..................................................................................... 29 3.1.2 Representation of Information ....................................................................... 29 3.1.3 Reporting of Information ................................................................................ 29 3.1.4 Information to Be Obtained ........................................................................... 30 3.1.5 List of Informants / Engagements .................................................................. 30 3.2 Population ................................................................................................................ 31 3.2.1 Population Group ............................................................................................ 31 3.2.2 Gender .............................................................................................................. 31 3.2.3 Age .................................................................................................................... 32 3.2.4 Population Projections .................................................................................... 40 3.2.5 Population Density ........................................................................................... 40 3.2.2 Migration ........................................................................................................... 46 3.2.3 Households ....................................................................................................... 55 3.2.4 Adult Education ............................................................................................... 72 3.2.5 Employment Status .......................................................................................... 79 3.2.6 Household Income .......................................................................................... 88 4 Socio-economic Trends ................................................................................................. 90 4.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 90 4.1.2 Information gathering ..................................................................................... 90 4.1.3 Representation of Information ....................................................................... 90 4.1.4 Reporting of Information ................................................................................ 90 4.2 Information to Be Obtained .................................................................................. 90 4.3 List of Informants / Engagements ......................................................................... 90 Status: Voortrekker Road Corridor Strategy and Investment Plan Page 1 of 390 Draft Status Quo Analysis Report 4.4 Information Obtained ............................................................................................ 91 4.4.2 Household Services Index ............................................................................... 91 4.4.3 Education Index ............................................................................................... 93 4.4.4 Housing Index ................................................................................................... 93 4.4.5 Economic Index ............................................................................................... 96 4.5 Assessment of Trends .............................................................................................. 96 5. Residential and property analysis ................................................................................ 99 5.1 Existing Public housing stock and informal settlements ..................................... 99 5.1.1 Public housing stock and Backyarding ........................................................ 99 5.1.2 Informal Settlements ...................................................................................... 100 5.2 Budgeted and planned public housing projects ............................................. 103 5.2.1 Subsidized Housing ........................................................................................ 103 5.2.2 CRU housing provision ................................................................................... 103 5.2.3 Social housing provision ................................................................................ 104 5.2.4 The student housing sector .......................................................................... 107 5.3 Residential valuations ........................................................................................... 109 5.3.1 Average Single Residential values .............................................................. 109 5.3.2 Average Sectional title residential values .................................................. 109 5.4 Residential Dwelling Densities ............................................................................. 113 5.5 Residential sales .................................................................................................... 116 5.5.1 Change in residential sale price between 2010 and 2013 ...................... 116 5.5.2 Sales Churn ..................................................................................................... 121 5.6 Potential residential demand and supply ......................................................... 127 5.6.1 The citywide housing need projections as per the draft Integrated Human Settlement Framework ................................................................................... 127 5.6.2 VRC residential potential analysis ............................................................... 128 5.6.3 Absorption of residential demand within the VRC ................................... 129 5.7 Housing affordability ............................................................................................. 131 5.7.1 Constraints for developers achieving initial returns .................................. 131 5.7.2 New Builds vs refurbishments in the VRC .................................................... 132 5.8 Key trends/conclusions ........................................................................................ 134 6. Economic Status: Shadows and spill-overs ............................................................... 135 6.1 High-level findings ................................................................................................. 135 6.1.1 High level questions ....................................................................................... 135 6.1.2 High level conclusions ................................................................................... 135 6.2 Regional context .................................................................................................. 136 6.2.1 Composition and distribution of formal employment .............................. 136 Status: Voortrekker Road Corridor Strategy and Investment Plan Page 2 of 390 Draft Status Quo Analysis Report 6.2.2 Regional building development ................................................................. 139 The ‘donut’ effect ........................................................................................................ 139 6.2.3 Fiscal significance .......................................................................................... 140 6.3 The study area as a true functional corridor ..................................................... 141 6.3.1 The intensity of links: the city as a network ................................................. 141 6.3.2 The nature of links: shadows and spill-overs............................................... 141 6.3.3 Building networks into strategy .................................................................... 142 6.4 Nodal analysis of business districts ...................................................................... 142 6.5 Land values, rentals and vacancy ..................................................................... 143 6.5.1 Industrial