IGPCEA CENC IEFCEA Perspectives on CSEP 2.0 from CSEP China Yongxian ZHANG1, Zhongliang WU2, Xiaodong ZHANG2, Changsheng JIANG3, Huaizhong Yu1, Xiaotao Zhang1, Shi Chen3, Libo Han3 & Gang Li1 1.China Earthquake Networks Center, 100045 Beijing 2. Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, China Earthquake Administration, 100036 Beijing 3. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, 100081 Beijing OUTLINES u Summary of CSEP1.0 China u Perspective of CSEP2.0 China Milestone 2010 (1) 2009, July 5-9, ISESEP workshop (Beijing), Dr. Jeremy Zechar visit IGPCEA (2) 2009, Sep. 24-25, participant the CSEP workshop 2009 in USC (3) 2010, Mar. 18-21, Prof. Thomas Jordan and Dr. Matt Gerstenberger visit China to promote the collaboration in CSEP. Round-table discussion on the priorities of collaboration, signed the MOU between IGPCEA, CENC and SCEC (4) 2010, Mar. 17-25, Matt Gerstenberger visit CENC for STEP model installation CSEP1.0 CN Group •Preparatory Working Group of Chinese CSEP activities: - lead by Zhongliang WU (IEFCEA) - Secretary: Yongxian ZHANG (CENC) & Changsheng JIANG (IGPCEA) - Technical support: Libo HAN (IGPCEA) - Model developer: Huaizhong YU (CENC) Shi Chen (IGPCEA) Xiaotao ZHANG (CENC) Feng LONG (Sichuan EQ Administration) Shengfeng ZHANG (Shandong EQ Administration) Shiyong ZHOU (Peking University) Peng HAN (SUSTech) …… Computing facilities of CN CSEP Testing Center Installing the CSEP software CSEP people were invited to visit Participation of CSEP workshop (5) 2010, May 21-June 20, Jiang’s ERI short-term visit collaborate with Kazu Najo and J. C. Zhuang (6) 2010, Nov. 9~12, Dr.Danijel Schorlemmer (USC) and Dr.Maria Liukis (SCEC) visit IGPCEA to install CSEP software and promote the CSEP activity Didn’t run well and was difficult to input new model. (8) 2011, Feb 18~26, Dr. Jeremy D. Zechar (ETH) & (7) 2010, Nov. 13-28, G. Molchan visit IGPCEA Arnaud Mignan (ETH) visit to install the TripleS for teaching the Molchan Error Diagram model and collaborate on Sino-Swiss project How to design an experiment in CSEP • Some definitions need to be made for a scientific experiment: ─ Testing area ─ Exact description of forecast (modeling) ─ Exact definition of input data (authorized & calibrated) ─ Measure of success N-Test L-Test R-Test Molchan-Test ASS-Test ROC-Test - - Historical M8+ earthquakes 1654 South of Tianshui M8 earthquake 1739 Yinchuan-Pingluo M8 earthquake 1833 Songming M8 earthquake 1879 South of Wudu M8 earthquake 1920 Haiyuan M8½ earthquake 1927 Gulang M8 earthquake 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake CSEP-I M7+ earthquakes 2010 Yushu M7.1 earthquake 2014 Lushan M7.0 earthquake 2017 Jiuzhaigou M7.0 earthquake CN CSEP1.0 Results: evaluations of long-term models • Pattern Informatics (PI) – 5-10 yr • Simplified Earthquake Clustering Model (SEC) - 5 yr • Relative Intensity (RI) - 5 yr • Simple Smoothed Seismicity (Triple-S) - 5 yr • Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) - 3yr/1yr • Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) - 3yr/1yr • Gravity data based Amplitude of Analytic Signal (AAS) - 3yr • Multi Methods of Earthquake Prediction(MMEP) (PI/LURR/SV/AMR)– 1yr • China Hybrid/Integrated Annual Prediction Model (CHAP)- 1yr • Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) -1 day • STEP – 1day • …… Statistical testing methods use less, and the understanding is not enough What is standard CSEP statistics test methods and how to use them - ROC test ROC test of PI algorithm using ‘background events’ and ‘clustering events’. Jiang & Wu, 2011, NHESS Statistical testing methods use less, and the understanding is not enough What is standard CSEP statistics test methods and how to use them - Molchan Error Diagram Molchan, 1991; Zechar and Jordan, 2008 Jiang, C. S., Han, L. B. et al., Earthquake, 2010 Application: the earthquake forecast model and forecast statistical test technology developed by CSEP have applied to earthquake disaster reduction services after some devastating earthquake occurred, such as 2017 Jiuzhaigou 7.0 EQ etc. Next-day’s aftershock forecasting results of the Jiuzhaigou Ms7.0 earthquake sequence by using the R-J model and ETAS model Application: In the actual earthquake case study, the practical application performance of some forecasting models has been tested and obtained new insights. - -- - - - - Short-term forecast model considered in CN CSEP Testing Center • ModelETAS Oneday Model • Forecast time period 2017.1.29, 00:00:00 ~2017.01.30, 00:00:00 • Contributor: Prof. Zhuang JC Seismicity rate forecast by ETAS 1-day model New Model: Amplitude of Analytic Signal (AAS) model based on gravity data The total horizontal derivative (THD) of gravity data and the amplitude of analytic signal (AAS) as the metric of the gradient of the gravity change for each cell Chen et al., 2015, PAGEOPH China Software Registration Certificate MMEP Model Combination of PI, LURR, SV and AMR for Time forecast PI: Pattern Informatics LURR: Load/Unload Response Ratio SV: State Vector AMR: Accelerate Moment Release Medium term reflecting Long term Criticle state property change Test of MMEP for 2013.11-2014.10 Company Logo 12020 Successful prediction False alarm area R=Hite Rate-False Rate= - Total earthquake Total area without eq. R=6/9124/901=0.53 2014 6521352 .352352 ± ± 2135 073522 Expansion System: Automated push service developed for the results of the earthquake forecast and interactive results query for CN CSEP modelers and managers, base on the visual task flow design, automatic approach, and the WeChat on mobile phone Publication list of the CN CSEP1.0 testing center General introduction of the CSEP and earthquake predictability • Jiang, C. S. and Zhao, Y. Z., 2009. Earthquake predictability study: the CSEP project and its significance. Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research, 30(5): 34~40. (in Chinese with English abstract) • Jiang, C. S., Wu, Z. L. and Li, Y. C., 2014. Time-dependent seismic hazard of the southern Longmenshan fault zone and the Sichuan-Yunnan region: earthquake predictability and its limit, in: Earthquake Phenomenology from the Field, the April 20, 2013, Lushan Earthquake. SpringerBriefs in Earth Sciences, eds. by: Wu, Z. L., et al., Springer Press, Netherlands, Pp. 99-110. General introduction of the statistics test method in CSEP • Jiang, C. S., Zhang, L. P., Han, L. B. and Lai, G. J., 2011. Probabilistic forecasting method of long term abd intermediate-term seismic hazard I: Molchan Error Diagram. Earthquake, 31(2): 106~113. (in Chinese with English abstract) • Zhuang, J. C. and Jiang, C. S., 2012. Evaluation of the prediction performance of the Annual Consultation Meeting on Earthquake Tendency by using the gambling score. Chinese J. Geophys., 55(5): 1695~1709. (in Chinese with English abstract) • Zhuang, J .C., and Jiang, C. S., 2013. Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China. Tectonophysics. 524- 525: 155~164. • Gao, C. J., Jiang, C. S., Han, L. B. and Li, Y. E., 2013. Statistics test method of intermediate-term and long-term probabilistic forecasting: N-test and L-test method. Earthquake, 33(1): 47~55. (in Chinese with English abstract) Publication list of the CN CSEP1.0 testing center CN CSEP1.0 testing region setup and analysis of data quality • Li, Z. H., Jiang, C. S., Huang, Y. and Wang, B. Z., 2011. Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs and scientific distribution of seismic station network in Xinjiang region. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 33(6): 763~775. (in Chinese with English abstract) • Gao, C. J., Han, L. B., Jiang, C. S., Li, Y. E. and Guo, X. Y., 2012. Minimum magnitude of completeness in the North-South Seismic Belt for collaboratory study of earthquake predictability. Earthquake, 32(1): 17~27. (in Chinese with English abstract) • Feng, J. G., Jiang, C. S., Han, L. B. and Chen, J. F., 2012. Analysis on the monitoring capability of seismic networks and completeness of earthquakes in Gansu region. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 34(5): 646~658. (in Chinese with English abstract) • Mignan, A., C. Jiang, C. S., Zechar, J. D., Wiemer, S., Wu, Z. L. and Huang, Z. B., 2013. Completeness of the mainland China earthquake catalog and implications for the setup of the China earthquake forecast testing center. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Amer., 103(2A): 845~859. • Liu, F., Jiang, C. S., Zhang, F., Zhang, W. T., Zhang, H., Yang, Y. M., Liang, Y. and Yin, Z. J., 2014. The analysis of monitoring of seismic network in Inner Mongolia region based on EMR method. Earth Science - Journal of China University of Geosciences, 38(6): 1356~1362. (in Chinese with English abstract) • Liu, F., Jiang, C. S., Zhang, F., Yang, Y. M., Liang, Y., Wang, L. and Miao, C. L., 2014. A study on detection capability of the Inner Mongolia regional seismic network. Acta Seismologica Sinica, 36(5): 919~929. (in Chinese with English abstract) • Wang, Y. W., Jiang, C. S., Liu, F. and Bi, J. M., 2017. Assessment of earthquake monitoring capability and score of seismic station detection capability in China Seismic Network (2008—2015). Chinese J. Geophys., 60(7): 2767~2778, doi: 10.6038/cjg20170722. (in Chinese with English abstract) • Wang, Y. W. and Jiang, C. S., 2017. Comparision among different methods for assessing monitoring capability of seismic station in North-South Seismic Belt. Earthquake Science, 39(3), 315~329. doi: 10.11939/jass.2017.03.002. (in Chinese with English abstract) • Si, Z. Y. and Jiang, C. S., 2018. Research on parameters calculation of the OK1993 model in frequency-magnitude distribution based on data-driven approach. Chinese J. Geophys., under review. Publication list of the CN CSEP1.0 testing center CN CSEP1.0 modeling • Yu, H. Z. and Zhu, Q. Y., 2010. A probabilistic approach for earthquake potential evaluation based on the load/unload response ratio method. Concurrency Computat.: Pract. Exper. 22: 1520~1533. • Yu, H. Z., Cheng, J., Zhu, Q. Y., and Wan, Y. G., 2011. Critical sensitivity of load/unload response ratio and stress accumulation before large earthquakes: example of the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake.