Projet VIP –MONT-BLANC DOCUMENT SCIENTIFIQUE Acronym VIP –MONT-BLANC VItesses des Processus contrôlant les évolutions morphologiques et Titre du projet environnementales du massif du Mont-Blanc Rates of the processes controlling the morphologic and Proposal title environmental changes in the Mont-Blanc massif Evaluation panel 1.1. Basic Research Type of research International cooperation No grant asked Grant requested 498 931 € Projet duration 48 mois Mugnier Jean-Louis Coordinator ISTerre, UMR 5275 (CNRS-UdS, UJF), partner Université de Savoie No Link with a project of the Investment for the Future programme 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE PROPOSAL ........................................................................... 3 2. CONTEXT, POSITION AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PROPOSAL .................................................... 3 2.1. Objectives, originality and novelty of the project ............................................ 4 2.2. State of the art .......................................................................................... 5 3. SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL PROGRAMME, PROJECT ORGANISATION ................................... 9 3.1. Scientific programme and project structure .................................................... 9 3.2. Description by task ................................................................................... 10 3.3. Tasks schedule ........................................................................................ 20 4. DISSEMINATION AND EXPLOITATION OF RESULTS, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY ................... 21 5. CONSORTIUM DESCRIPTION ............................................................................................... 22 5.1. Partners description, relevance and complementarity .................................... 22 5.2. Qualification and contribution of each partner .............................................. 23 6. SCIENTIFIC JUSTIFICATION OF REQUESTED RESSOURCES ................................................... 26 6.1. Partner 1 : ISTerre UMR 5275 .................................................................... 26 6.2. Partner 2 : EDYTEM UMR 5204 ................................................................... 26 6.3. Partner 3 : LGGE-LTHE UMR 5183-5564 ...................................................... 27 6.4. Partner 4 : Biogeoscience UMR 6282 ........................................................... 27 6.5. Partner 5 : CEREGE UMR 7330 ................................................................... 27 6.6. Partner 6 : LISTIC EA 3703 ....................................................................... 28 7. REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................... 28 1 Projet VIP –MONT-BLANC DOCUMENT SCIENTIFIQUE People involved in the project: (In red : funding request in this ANR) Involv Etablissement / Current Contribution to the project Last name First name ement Organisation position (PM) Coordinator of the project DR2 ISTerre, UMR 5275 Mugnier Jean-Louis 28 Scientific and technics responsible (partner n°1) CNRS Participation to WP3 CR1 Scientific and technics responsible (partner n°2) EDYTEM, UMR 5204 Ravanel Ludovic 24 CNRS Coordinator workpackage WP2 LGGE, UMR 5183 Rabatel Antoine Phys.ad 12 Scientific and technics responsible (partner n°3) BioGéosciences, CR2 Scientific and technics responsible (partner n°4) Pohl Benjamin 14 UMR 6282 CNRS Coordinator workpackage WP1 Scientific and technics responsible (partner n°5) PrCE1 CEREGE UMR 7330 Bourlès Didier 8 Coordinator workpackage WP4 AMU Systematic of the cosmogenic nuclides. LISTIC EA CNRS- Scientific and technics responsible (partner n°6) Vernier Flavien MC 5 UdS 7703 Distributed computation and image processing ISTerre Vassallo Riccardo MC2 12 Geomorphology and dating of sub-glacial surface IR2 Systematic of the cosmogenic nuclides. Rockfall ISTerre Carcailet Julien 12 CNRS dating ISTerre Crouzet Christian MC2 4 Holocene sediment and glacier morphology ISTerre Romeyer Olivier IE 1 Hydro-sedimento data logger (Data transmission) ISTerre Guillon Herve PhD High resolution DEM interpretation ISTerre XXXX XXXX IE 3 Data transmission and acquisition EDYTEM Deline Philip MC 4 Geomorphology EDYTEM Bodin Xavier CR2 4 Permafrost modelling EDYTEM Malet Emmanuel AI 6 Field campaigns; measurements EDYTEM Astrade Laurent MR 4 Topographic and sedimentary changes of the streams EDYTEM Magnin Florence PhD 12 Permafrost modelling EDYTEM XXXX XXXX Postdoc 12 Relation climate-rockfalls since the LGM EDYTEM Berthet Johan PhD 12 High resolution DEM acquisition “Modelling future permafrost distribution in the MBM EDYTEM XXXX XXXX PhD 18 and the associated instabilities” LGGE Vincent Christian IR1 8 Glaciological measurements and modeling (partner 3) LGGE Six Delphine Phys.ad 8 Glaciological measurements and modeling (partner 3) LGGE Réveillet Marion Ph.D 10 Glaciological measurements and modeling (partner 3) LGGE (LTHE) Condom Thomas CR1 8 Glacio-hydrological modeling (partner 3) LGGE (LTHE) Belleudy Philippe PR 1 Sediment transport modeling (partner 3) LGGE XXXX YYYYY Postdoc 13 Glaciological modeling BioGéosciences Buoncristiani Jean- MC uB 12 Meltwater Sediment yield; glacial geomorphology and François sedimentology BioGéosciences Joly Daniel DR1 14 Statistical downscaling of recent and future climate CNRS variability BioGéosciences Tolle Florian MC UFC 14 Climate variability and associated effects on glaciers BioGéosciences Bernard Eric CR2 14 Climate variability and associated effects on glaciers CNRS BioGéosciences XXXX YYYYY Postdoc 12 Climate modeling CR2 Systematic of the cosmogenic nuclides. Development CEREGE (partner 5) Schimmelpfennig Irene 24 CNRS of the in situ produced C-14 methodology CDD CEREGE Rieu Patricia 7,2 Project administration for CEREGE (adm) Ing./Ch CEREGE Arnold Maurice 8 Cosmogenic nuclides measurements at ASTER CEA IE2 CEREGE Aumaître Georges 8 Cosmogenic nuclides measurements at ASTER CNRS AI CEREGE Keddadouche Karim 8 Cosmogenic nuclides measurements at ASTER CNRS Cosmogenic nuclide related physico-chemical CEREGE Guillou Valery ASI 12 preparation of the samples. Development of the in situ produced C-14 CEREGE/ISTerre XXXX YYYYY PhD 36 methodology. “Quantification of past and present sub-glacial erosion” LISTIC Trouvé Emmanuel Pr1 5 Satellite image processing And seven masters (28 months) distributed between ISTerre, EDYTEM, BIOGEO and LISTIC 2 Projet VIP –MONT-BLANC DOCUMENT SCIENTIFIQUE 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF THE PROPOSAL This project aims at better understanding the impact of climate change on the morphologic and environmental processes in the Mont-Blanc Massif (MBM), with particular focus on the reduction of glacier surface-area, rock-fall increase related to permafrost warming and downstream changes in water and sediments fluxes. Adequately tackling the environmental and societal challenges arising from the acceleration of these processes requires: 1) a careful documentation of the spatio-temporal evolution of the involved components, i.e. local climate, rock faces, glaciers, sediment production and hydrological regimes; and 2) an accurate understanding of the complex interactions between these components. To address these issues, we formed a team of climatologists, geophysicists, geomorphologists, glaciologists, permafrost specialists and hydrologists. A first workpackage is dedicated to the coordination aspects; we will perform a systemic approach within the other work packages focuses on the study of the spatio-temporal changes of the different components influencing the evolution of the MBM: climate, hydrology, permafrost, erosion products and present-day and Holocene glacier dynamics. To investigate the complex interplay between the parameters, active exchange between work packages will assure cross-analysis of the resulting data. The project is based on both observations (field measurements, remote sensing and geochemistry) and modeling. Direct field observations will benefit from the contributions of: 1) the GLACIOCLIM observatory (LGGE-LTHE) regarding the glacio-hydrological processes in the studied areas; 2) expertise of the EDYTEM laboratory in permafrost studies; and 3) expertise of the ISTerre laboratory in erosional processes. Climate modeling will be performed by the Centre de Recherche de Climatologie of BioGeoscience. Remote sensing will benefit from the expertise of the LISTIC in satellite images processing while the study of long- term glacial and peri-glacial processes is based on cosmogenic nuclides, including notably the new dating tool in-situ produced 14C, currently implemented at CEREGE. Several modeling approaches will be applied for the present-day (~ 30 to 50 last years) period: the 1979- today regional climate variability around the MBM will first be analyzed through kilometer-scale numerical climate modeling, compared with statistically downscaled fields derived from atmospheric reanalyses and general circulation models. In addition to climate analysis (mostly focused on local orographic effects), the derived high-resolution data will be used to feed hydrological, permafrost and glacier models. Glacio- hydrological discharge will rely on a glacio-hydrologic model (GSM-Socont); glacier modeling will be based on functions linking mass balance and surface elevation changes; thermal permafrost evolution will be inferred from statistical GIS-modeling to simulate the mean annual rock surface temperature distribution; and present-day sub-glacial erosion will be estimated as