Navy Manpower Planning David Rodney March 2017 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. This document contains the best opinion of CNA at the time of issue. It does not necessarily represent the opinion of the sponsor. Distribution DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited. 2/28/2017 Other requests for this document shall be referred to CNA Document Center at [email protected]. Photography Credit: http://www.navy.mil/view_single_ad.asp?id=1281 . Approved by: March 2017 Linda Cavalluzzo, Vice President and Director Resource Analysis Division This work was performed under Federal Government Contract No. N00014-16-D-5003. Copyright © 2017 CNA Table of Contents Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................1 Purpose of Monograph ......................................................................................................................1 Top-Level View of the Navy Manpower Planning Process ..........................................................2 The Time Dimension in MPT&E ...........................................................................................................5 MPT&E Management Structure ........................................................................................................6 Requirements ............................................................................................................................................12 Billet Descriptions .................................................................................................................................12 Categories of Manpower ..................................................................................................................13 Afloat Manpower Requirements .................................................................................................14 Shore Manpower Requirements ..................................................................................................16 The Individuals Account ................................................................................................................18 Programming ............................................................................................................................................20 PPBE Process .........................................................................................................................................20 Authorizations .......................................................................................................................................22 Discretionary Spending ......................................................................................................................25 Personnel Planning ..................................................................................................................................27 Analytic Framework ............................................................................................................................27 Closed Labor Market, Survival Curves, and Paygrade “Pyramids” .......................................27 Components of Personnel Planning ................................................................................................33 Strength Planning ................................................................................................................................34 Community Management ................................................................................................................35 Accession Planning .............................................................................................................................36 Recruiting ..............................................................................................................................................39 Officer Recruiting ............................................................................................................................40 i Enlisted Recruiting...........................................................................................................................41 Training & Education...........................................................................................................................44 Officer Training & Education ........................................................................................................45 Enlisted Training & Education .......................................................................................................48 Individuals Account .......................................................................................................................52 Career Planning ..................................................................................................................................53 Officer Community Planning ........................................................................................................53 Enlisted Community Planning .......................................................................................................57 Advancement or Promotion .............................................................................................................61 Officer Promotions ..........................................................................................................................62 Enlisted Advancements .................................................................................................................66 Compensation .....................................................................................................................................68 The Overall Structure of Compensation .....................................................................................68 Targeted Pays .................................................................................................................................68 Retirement .......................................................................................................................................70 Important Topics in Personnel Planning ..........................................................................................72 Econometric Modeling ..................................................................................................................72 Decision Support Systems ..............................................................................................................73 Choice of Continuation Rates .....................................................................................................75 Women in the Navy .......................................................................................................................77 Personnel Execution ................................................................................................................................80 Monitoring Execution of Plans ...........................................................................................................80 Moving Personnel Through Training Pipelines .................................................................................81 Personnel Distribution ..........................................................................................................................83 Fleet Manning ......................................................................................................................................85 Feedback Loops and Process Interactions .........................................................................................88 Evolution of Requirements .................................................................................................................88 Synchronization of Equipment Modernization With School Plans ...............................................90 Last Thoughts ............................................................................................................................................91 ii Glossary .....................................................................................................................................................92 References ................................................................................................................................................95 iii List of Figures Figure 1. MPT&E Process ................................................................................................................... 3 Figure 2. Navy MPT&E Enterprise .................................................................................................... 9 Figure 3. PPBE Overlapping Cycles ............................................................................................. 22 Figure 4. Length-of-Service Distribution for OS Rating ............................................................ 28 Figure 5. Sample Survival Curve ................................................................................................... 30 Figure 6. Officer Pyramid ................................................................................................................ 32 Figure 7. Enlisted Pyramid ............................................................................................................... 32 iv v List of Tables Table 1. Submarine Officer Career Path (from www.public.navy.mil/bupers/npc/Pages/default.aspx) .....................................................