Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia An examination of information and warnings broadcasted to inform mitigation and community preparedness Deanne Bird1, Kevin Ronan2, Bruce Gunn3, Shannon Panchuck3, Linda Anderson-Berry3, Christine Hanley4, Shelby Canterford5, Ian Mannix6 1 Risk Frontiers, Macquarie University; 2 Professional Research Fellow, CQUniversity Australia, 3 Hazards, Warnings and Forecasts Division, Bureau of Meteorology; 4 Population Research Laboratory, CQUniversity Australia; 5 Community Safety Branch, Geoscience Australia; 6 Emergency Broadcasting & Community Development, ABC Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcia: An examination of information and warnings broadcasted to inform mitigation and community preparedness 1 Satellite image originally processed by the Bureau of Meteorology from the geostationary meteorological satellite MTSAT-2 operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency. Forecast Track Map animation. Source: BoM © 5am Wed 18th Tropical Low (First ‘Cyclone Watch’) Forecast X-ing: 4am 20th Yeppoon- Gladstone Cat 1 8pm Wed 18th Cat 1 Forecast X-ing: 2am 20th Shoalwater Bay Cat 2 11am Thu 19th Cat 2 From Cat 1 in 15hrs Forecast X-ing: 4am 20th Shoalwater Bay Cat 2 4pm Thu 19th Cat 3 From Cat 2 in 5hrs! Forecast X-ing: 3am 20th Shoalwater Bay Cat 4 6pm Thu 19th Cat 4 From Cat 2 in 8hours!! From Cat 3 in 3 hours!! Forecast X-ing: 6am 20th StLawrence/ Shoalwater Bay Cat 4 4am Fri 20th Cat 5 From Cat 4 in 10hours Forecast X-ing: 10am 20th Shoalwater Bay Cat 5 47 hours from issue of first Cyclone Watch Track forecast ‘good’ Intensity forecast ‘not so good’ Oct 2015: Hurricane Patricia, US National Hurricane Center: similar forecast experience Severe Tropical Cyclone YASI 2011 Post analysis track. Source: BoM© TC Marcia recap… • Nearly 2000 properties (commercial and residential) damaged, including 238 with severe damage and 14 with total damage • More than 8,000 requests for assistance • 69,000 customers without power, with major outages in worst hit areas – Biloela, Yeppoon and Rockhampton • Major ports and airports closed • 12 Evacuation centres were in operation • 117 schools, 219 early childhood education and care services and 32 TAFE colleges were closed @DeanneKBird Mixed Methods Research Scoping trip – BoM and Geoscience Australia Development of questionnaires – all CATI survey – Computer Assisted Telephone Surveying – Central Queensland University Online survey – Central Queensland University Post analysis track zoomed. Source: BoM In-depth interviews – BoM and Risk Frontiers @DeanneKBird Main Aims What worked, what didn’t work in terms of early warnings and other information Levels of concern as event unfolded AFP PHOTO / SHELLY ALLSOPSource:AFP Terminology used Actions taken, if any Other influencing factors – children, pets, previous experience, perceived vulnerability, etc ABC News: Giulio Saggin,www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02- 23/marmor-shouts-out-for-help-after-cyclone- marcia-in-central-qld/6195816 Demographics 482 telephone survey, averaging about 32 minutes – response rate 57% + 279 respondents completed the online survey 45% from Rockhampton area 40% from Yeppoon/Livingston area 36% male; 64% female 13% aged 18-34; 18% aged 35-44; 19% aged 45-55; 51% aged 55+ 90% born in Australia 38% working full-time; 15% part-time; 29% retired 22 in-depth interviews with residents @DeanneKBird Levels of concern before versus after intensification 45 40 Not at all 35 30 Not very 25 Neutral 20 15 Concerned % % ofrespondents 10 Extremely 5 concerned 0 Before After Before After Before After Home/property Self Family/friends @DeanneKBird Knowledge of vulnerability When you first heard about TC Marcia, did you know % your area was vulnerable to category 3, 4 or 5 cyclones? Yes, up to and including a Category 3 19 Yes, up to and including a Category 4 8 Yes, up to and including a Category 5 44 No, I didn’t know 27 Don’t know / no response 2 Given as a percentage and rounded up therefore not all equal 100% @DeanneKBird When first heard When do you first hear or see information that made % you aware a tropical cyclone might impact your area? Tuesday 17 February (3 days before) 53 Wednesday 18 February (2 days before) 19 Thursday 19 February (1 day before) 11 Friday 20 February (day it arrived) 2 I didn’t see or hear information 0.1 I can’t remember 6 Other 9 Given as a percentage and rounded up therefore not all equal 100% @DeanneKBird Information source Workplace Friends/family/ How did you first neighbours become aware Social media that a tropical cyclone may impact your area? Website Newspaper Where did you first hear an official warning Radio for TC Marcia? Television 0 20 40 60 % of respondents Use and perspectives 82% found the warnings relevant to them Most people actively searched for more information: television, internet, radio, other people, social media Internet most often used, with BoM website most popular 79% believe the pre-cyclone preparedness messages and warnings included all the information needed @DeanneKBird Most trustworthy source % Television – Channel 7 22 Radio – ABC Radio 24 Newspaper 0.1 Website – BoM website 37 Social media – Facebook 6 Friends/family/neighbours 2 Workplace 1 Given as a percentage and rounded up therefore not all equal 100% @DeanneKBird Could be better? All the info was good, I don’t think it could have been better; however, we didn’t think it would ever impact us Better coverage of Rural Area pre and post BoM should have seen what was happening from the models and at least started to talk a little about the possibility …improved local radio and telecommunication reception so you can actually receive information More regular updates by BoM on tracking The BoM actually knowing where the cyclone was going and what it was doing @DeanneKBird Could be better? Communication overall about how severe it would be and the possible impacts earlier. We didn’t get these kinds of warnings until a few hours before it hit. Our workplaces were even telling us it was overrated and were expecting us at work until we got warnings about how severe it was that morning. I experienced problems accessing BoM website due to high number of users – luckily my brother in England was able to log in and send me screenshots via text message and social media were doing the same. @DeanneKBird Most useful? Position, intensity, speed, likely future path of TC Marcia All good, especially tracking the cyclone BoM cyclone advice and warnings BoM was great BoM weather radar, BoM cyclone tracking map Category and timing of expected arrival Category 5, needed to take it very seriously @DeanneKBird Expected damage Before TC Marcia intensified, 40% did not expect any damage When TC Marcia intensified, 17% did not expect any damage Perceived preparedness 40 30 % 20 10 0 Not at all Not very Prepared Well Very well @DeanneKBird Coping as it hit.. 70 60 50 40 All 30 Most 20 Some % % ofrespondents A little 10 None 0 I felt calm I was afraid I knew what other people I had a and in that I or to do to keep in my feeling like control others were safe household ‘this isn’t going to get were real’ hurt or die distressed @DeanneKBird Perceived intensity Having experienced the cyclone, what cyclone category % do you believe you experienced? Category 1 1 Category 2 3 Category 3 27 Category 4 38 Category 5 19 Unsure - MILD 2 Unsure - SEVERE 8 Don’t know / no response 2 I heard it was downgraded to a category 3 when it hit Rockhampton but after experiencing the cyclone I believe it was still a cat 4 or 5 @DeanneKBird Where to from here? Demographic analysis What do pre-hazard conditions including risk perceptions / concerns lead to? What do various preparedness and warning messaging lead to? What produces physical and psychosocial resilience? Overall, what is the best way for BoM (and others) to “tell the pre and during-hazard story” to get people to effectively: Prepare, mitigate and prevent for rapidly escalating events Respond and recover @DeanneKBird Thanks! For more information, please contact either of us: Deanne Bird – [email protected]; Kevin Ronan – [email protected] • Haynes, K., Bird, D. 2014. Investigating the activation of Community Fire Units in the Blue Mountains during the October 2013 bushfires. BNHCRC, East Melbourne. • Bird, D., King, D., Haynes, K., Box, P., Okada, T., Nairn, K., 2013. Impact of the 2010/11 floods and the factors that inhibit and enable household adaptation strategies, NCCARF,. • Phillips, E., Bird, D., O’Brien, J., van den Honert, R., Coates, L., Okada, T., Haynes, K., Roche, K., 2013. An integrated research assessment of the physical and social aspects of the March 2011 flash flooding in Shellharbour, Kiama and Bega Valley, NSW. NSW SES. • Bird, D., Ling, M., Haynes, K. 2012. Flooding Facebook: the use of social media during the Queensland and Victorian floods. Australian Journal of Emergency Management. • Haynes, K., Bird, D., Coates, L., Ling, M. 2010. Emergency management response to the 2009 heatwave. In: Impacts and adaptation response of infrastructure and communities to heatwaves: the southern Australian experience of 2009, NCCARF. @DeanneKBird.