WAITING FOR THE GREEN LIGHT: TRANSPORT SOLUTIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Thank you for supporting the Climate Council. The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited ISBN: 978-1-925573-69-5 (print) 978-1-925573-68-8 (digital) © Climate Council of Australia Ltd 2018 This work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd. All material contained in this work is copyright the Climate Council of Australia Ltd except where a third party source is indicated. Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia License. To view a copy of this license visit http://creativecommons.org.au. You are free to copy, communicate and adapt the Climate Council of Australia Ltd copyright material so long as you attribute the Climate Council of Australia Ltd and the authors in the following manner: Waiting for the Green Light: Transport Solutions to Climate Change. Authors: Petra Stock, Professor Will Steffen, Greg Bourne and Louis Brailsford. — Cover image: Photo by chuttersnap on Unsplash. This report is printed on 100% recycled paper. facebook.com/climatecouncil [email protected] twitter.com/climatecouncil climatecouncil.org.au Preface This report marks the beginning of a new flagship project for the Climate Council aimed at cutting greenhouse gas pollution levels from the transport sector - Australia’s second largest source of greenhouse gas pollution. Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions are rising and are projected to continue increasing in the absence of credible and comprehensive climate and energy policy tackling all key sectors: electricity, transport, stationary energy, agriculture, fugitive emissions, industrial processes, waste and land use. There has been considerable public discussion in Australia surrounding the need to transition the electricity sector away from polluting, ageing and inefficient coal and gas generation to clean, affordable and reliable renewable power and storage. There are now many policies and programs at the federal, state and local levels designed to drive greater uptake of renewable energy. While more still needs to be done to continue cutting greenhouse gas pollution levels in the electricity sector, there is an urgent need to start addressing pollution from other sectors, particularly transport, the nation’s next largest polluter. Australia’s transport emissions or transport greenhouse gas pollution levels have been steadily rising and are projected to continue going up. Factors such as population growth have led to a higher number of cars on the road, while increased demand for freight is also driving up truck emissions. Domestic air travel continues to increase, leading to an increase in aviation emissions (Australian Government 2017). Solutions are readily available to cut rising greenhouse gas pollution levels from the transport sector. These include introducing vehicle emissions standards, planning for and investing in infrastructure to enable more people to walk, cycle and use public transport, powering cars, buses and rail with renewable energy, along with increasing the uptake of electric vehicles. However, Australia needs federal, state and local policies and investment to set us on the right path to do so. We would like to thank Dr John Stone, Prof Peter Newman, Dr Graham Sinden (EY), Marion Terrill (Grattan Institute) and Tony Morton (President of the Public Transport Users Association) for kindly reviewing the report. Authors Petra Stock Professor Will Steffen Greg Bourne Louis Brailsford Senior Energy and Climate Councillor Climate Councillor Researcher Climate Solutions Analyst II WAITING FOR THE GREEN LIGHT: TRANSPORT SOLUTIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE Key Findings 1 2 3 Transport is Australia’s second Global transport pollution Congestion is a $16 billion largest source of greenhouse levels are rising by around dollar handbrake on the gas pollution (after electricity). 2.5% each year. Without productivity of Australian action they are expected to cities. › Australia’s transport related double by 2050. greenhouse gas pollution levels › Congestion in Australia costs increased 3.4% in the year to › The transport sector contributes the economy more than $16 December 2017. 14% of total global greenhouse billion per year - measured in gas pollution annually. lost private and business time, › Road based transport accounts vehicle costs and air pollution. for an even greater share of › Road related transport - This figure is expected to rise. transport pollution in Australia motorcycles, cars, trucks and than the global average, at buses - make up about three › Demand and congestion on around 85%. quarters of global transport Australian roads will continue greenhouse gas pollution levels. to soar as city populations › Cars and light commercial rise. Investing in better public vehicles alone make up over › An international scorecard for transport infrastructure is a 60% of Australia’s transport transport energy efficiency proven means of alleviating pollution levels. ranked Australia third highest congestion. for car distance travelled per › Greenhouse gas pollution levels capita on an annual basis › Population growth in Australian from transport are projected (8,853 kilometres per person), cities is driving increased to continue rising to 2030 and after the United States (highest, demand for public transport. beyond, reaching 112 MtCO2e 14,724 kilometres per person) Infrastructure Australia in 2030, a further 12% above and Canada (second highest, forecasts an 89% increase in current levels. 8,864 kilometres per person). demand for public transport Australia lags behind Russia, between 2011 and 2031. Mexico and Indonesia on transport efficiency. › Federal and state governments can play a major role in encouraging more people to use public transport through both investing in infrastructure as well as running more frequent public transport services on existing routes. KEY FINDINGS III 4 5 Nearly 9 out of 10 Australians Australia is one of just a › In Australia, the adoption of travel to work, school or handful of Organisation electric vehicles is being held university by car. for Economic Co-operation back by the lack of policy and Development (OECD) support or incentives, higher › On average, one in three countries without greenhouse upfront cost, lack of choice cars on the road during the gas emissions standards for of available electric vehicles morning peak are people vehicles, and lacks credible for sale in Australia, and the making their way to work. national policy to tackle availability of public vehicle transport emissions. charging infrastructure. › Nearly 87% of Australian commuters travel to work › Mandatory vehicle emissions by car with a much smaller standards need to be proportion taking public introduced soon to enable transport (5%), walking (5%) Australia to prevent emissions and riding a bicycle (1%). of up to 65 MtCO2 by 2030 (significantly more greenhouse › The average Australian gas pollution than what New household spends seven times South Wales’ entire coal fleet more on transport (over $11,000 produces in a year). per year) than electricity (around $1,500 per year). › To tackle climate change, Australia needs to rapidly roll out › A study of Sydney transport a fleet of sustainable transport costs to the taxpayer found solutions like high quality cars to be the most expensive public transport, cycling and mode of travel costing society walking infrastructure as well 86c for every passenger as renewable powered vehicles kilometre, compared with rail in the form of electric bicycles, (the cheapest) at 47c and buses cars, trains, trams and buses. at 57c. › By 2025, an electric car is anticipated to be similar in terms of upfront cost compared to a conventional (petrol or diesel) vehicle. climatecouncil.org.au IV WAITING FOR THE GREEN LIGHT: TRANSPORT SOLUTIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE Recommendations for policy makers 1 4 Federal, State and Territory governments to Ensure that at least 50% of all Federal, State and set targets for zero emissions, fossil fuel free Territory Government transport infrastructure transport well before 2050. Develop a climate spending is directed to public and active (e.g. and transport policy and implementation plan walking and cycling) transport. to achieve these targets. 5 2 Federal, State and Territory governments to introduce Ensure cost benefit analyses for all transport targets to drive uptake of electric buses, trucks, cars project business cases account for the additional and bicycles powered by renewables. Electric vehicle greenhouse gas pollution that projects will lock targets can be established for specific sectors and in over their lifetime, or pollution avoided (e.g. government operations, including: from public transport improvements). › State and territory public transport systems. › Federal, state and territory government vehicle 3 fleet purchases. Establish mode shift targets for public transport, cycling and walking. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICY MAKERS V 6 8 State and Territory Governments to contract Federal, State and Territory governments to additional 100% renewable energy to power public encourage the rollout of 100% renewable powered transport systems (trains, light rail and buses). electric vehicle charging, particularly in regional areas and interstate routes. 7 Federal Government to introduce strong